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1291. Euro-Focus, September 11, One Year Later A Fading Transatlantic Partnership?

Author:
Simon Serfaty
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
One year ago, the two summits scheduled by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) for the end of 2002 were expected to start the final phase of the Euro-Atlantic vision: two institutions with overlapping sets of members engaged in missions that might not always be pursued in common but would always remain compatible in their goals and complementary in their methods. Instead, as the year has unfolded since September 11, that vision has become increasingly blurred. Now, there is a sense that the two sides of the Atlantic are drifting away from the lofty goals they set after World War II and during the Cold War, and sought to reassert after the Cold War. The relationship is not only said to be lacking coherence; it is also said to be losing its necessity, as Americans and Europeans no longer share values or even interests—and, even when they do, lose their commonalities in the increasing capabilities gap that divides them.
Topic:
NATO, Cold War, Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1292. Chirac's Blind Date with History

Author:
Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, Pierre Messerlin, and Chris Wiley
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The French elections held during the past eight weeks—first for the presidency and then for the National Assembly—were the most significant elections held in France since 1981. On the whole, their outcome is good for France, for Europe, and for the United States. They restore a political coherence that had been lacking during seven of the last nine years, when the French political system lived under the strained conditions of political cohabitation (1993–1995 and 1997–2002). Moreover, by renewing the primacy of the French presidency, these elections enable Jacques Chirac to assert his leadership during the decisive years that loom ahead for the European Union (EU), as well as for its relations with the United States within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Finally, these elections also confirm Europe's political drift to a center-right that the elections in Germany scheduled for September 23 are likely to make complete (Euro-Focus, September 15, 2002).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and France

1293. Taxing Decisions for Europe

Author:
Jennifer Lee, Simon Serfaty, and Christina V. Balis
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Ten years after the target date for the completion of the European internal market, much remains to be desired in the area of common policies. The absence of a coherent EU tax policy, in particular, has been a continued obstacle. Yet, with the introduction of the euro and in view of the EU's anticipated enlargement (Euro-Focus, January 9, 2002), the timeline for addressing these deficiencies is shortening.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1294. Bigger Europe, Smaller Agenda

Author:
Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, George Handy, and Georgeta Pourchot
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
“More Europe in every area” may sound like an ill-chosen motto for a six-month presidency facing an already demanding and inflated agenda. It is reflective of a concern, however, not to expand the current list of priorities to new initiatives that would risk the fate of past abortive attempts. Avoiding new confrontations, while ensuring the smooth pursuit of ongoing reforms, has become Spain's principal goal during its presidency in the first half of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

1295. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2002

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in December.After declining from May through September 2002, the leading index has now improved for three straight months, suggesting a stronger economic recovery in the first half of 2003.The negative contribution from unemployment insurance claims in December was more than offset by the positive contributions from housing permits, average manufacturing workweek, and consumer expectations. The leading index has almost regained its level in May 2002, or when it started to decline.The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, was flat in each of the last three months of 2002. But it\'s still 0.8 percent above its cyclical low reached in November 2001.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1296. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2002

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.7 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in November.This month's gain in the leading index is the largest since December of last year. With this increase, the index has now recovered its losses since May 2002, and is nearly 3.6 percent above its most recent trough in March 2001.Strength in the financial sector - coupled with a rebound in consumer expectations and a decline in unemployment insurance claims - contributed to the increase in the leading index this month.The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased modestly in November. Despite this increase, the coincident index remains essentially flat since July 2002, reflecting a sluggish recovery from the last recession.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1297. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2002

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading, coincident and lagging indexes all held steady in October.Strong real money growth and lower unemployment claims in October offset weak consumer expectations and faster deliveries, as measured by vendor performance.The coincident index performance continues to suggest a recovering yet fragile economy. Industrial production has shed some of its gains from the first half of the year and nonagricultural employment has essentially remained unchanged. Moderate growth in personal income and manufacturing and trade sales continue to sustain economic growth.Although the leading index has been flat or declining over the past five months, it is only 0.2 percent below its level from April of this year.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1298. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2002

Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.6 percent in September.The leading index declined for the fourth consecutive month in September. This weakness has been primarily fueled by weak equity markets, a narrowing interest rate spread, and deteriorating consumer expectations.The six-month diffusion index of the leading index, which measures the proportion of components that are rising in a six-month span, is at 50 percent. Over the past several months, this index has continued to deteriorate, which is an indication of spreading weakness among the leading components.The coincident index continues to show a weak economic recovery. Industrial production and nonagricultural payrolls showed mild weakness in September but were offset by modest gains in income and manufacturing and trade sales.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1299. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2002

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in August.The leading index declined for the third month in a row in August. This was the first time in fifteen months that the six-month growth rate was negative.The weakness in the leading index was widespread, with a majority of the components showing declines.The coincident index continues to indicate a weak economic recovery. Industrial production declined for the first time this year and the other three components showed little improvement.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1300. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: July 2002

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in July.Although the incorporated data revisions deepened the depth of the decline in the coincident index in the most recent recession, the decline of this index remains mild by historical standards. The decline from the peak of the coincident index in December 2000 to its trough in November 2001 is only 1.7 percent compared to an average decline of 3.3 percent from peak to trough in the previous six recessions.Modest gains in the coincident index in the last five months reflect the slow pace of the economic recovery. To date, the pre-recession peak of the coincident index has not yet been reached.Although the leading index declined in three of the last six months, its six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of the components that are rising, remains above 50 percent. This month's decline in the leading index was primarily caused by weak equity markets and lower consumer expectations.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States