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1271. Identifying VARs Based on High Frequency Futures Data

Author:
Jonathan H. Wright, Jon Faust, and Eric Swanson
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using the prices of federal funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of Federal Reserve policy decisions on the expected future trajectory of interest rates. We show how this information can be used to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a standard monetary policy VAR. This constitutes an alternative approach to identification that is quite different, and, we would argue, more plausible, than the conventional short-run restrictions. We find that the usual recursive identification of the model is rejected, but we nevertheless agree with the literature's conclusion that only a small fraction of the variance of output can be attributed to monetary policy shocks.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1272. Inflation Targeting and Nominal Income Growth Targeting: When and Why Are They Suboptimal?

Author:
Dale W. Henderson and Jinill Kim
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We derive optimal monetary stabilization rules and compare them to simple rules under both full and partial information. The nominal interest rate is the instrument of monetary policy. Special attention is devoted to inflation targeting and nominal-income-growth targeting. We use an optimizing-agent model of a closed economy which features monopolistic competition in both product and labor markets. A stabilization problem exists because there are one-period nominal contracts, either for wages alone or for both wages and prices, and three shocks that are unknown when contracts are signed. In order to highlight basic theoretical results, we deliberately keep our model simple enough that we can obtain exact solutions. Optimal rules maximize the expected utility of the representative agent subject to the information set of the policymaker. A key result, possibly surprising at first, is that even with monopolistic competition, the optimal full information policy makes the economy mimic the hypothetical equilibrium with flexible prices and wages. We explain why strict versions of inflation targeting, nominal income growth targeting, and other such simple rules are suboptimal under both full and partial information and derive flexible versions that are optimal under certain partial information assumptions. Nominal income growth targeting dominates inflation targeting for plausible parameter values.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1273. On the Sequencing of Projects, Reputation Building, and Relationship Finance

Author:
David C. Smith, Steven Ongena, and Dominik Egli
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We study the decision an entrepreneur faces in financing multiple projects and show that relationship financing will arise endogenously in an environment where strategic defaults are likely, even when firms have access to arm's-length financing. Relationship financing allows an entrepreneur to build a private reputation for repayment that reduces the cost of financing. However, in an environment where the risk of strategic default is low, the benefits from reputation building are outweighed by holdup rents extractable by the incumbent lender. Entrepreneurs then choose to finance projects from single or multiple arm's-length lenders.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1274. Government Expenditures and Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates

Author:
Ronald J. Balvers and Jeffrey H. Bergstrand
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Economists have long investigated theoretically and empirically the relationship between government spending and equilibrium real exchange rates. As Frenkel and Razin (1996) summarize for a small open economy, government expenditures (financed by lump-sum taxes) influence real exchange rates via a resource-withdrawal channel and a consumption-tilting channel. Recent theoretical and empirical studies, such as Froot and Rogoff (1991), Rogoff (1992), De Gregorio, Giovannini, and Krueger (1994), De Gregorio, Giovannini, and Wolf (1994), De Gregorio and Wolf (1994), and Chinn and Johnston (1996), have focused only upon the effects of government spending through the resource-withdrawal channel. Extending Frenkel and Razin (1996), this paper generates closed-form theoretical solutions for the relationships among the real exchange rate, relative per capita private consumption, relative per capita government consumption, and relative per capita tradables and nontradables production in a two-country general equilibrium model. Using relative price level, private and government per capita consumption, and relative productivity data from the Summers and Heston (1991) Penn World Tables and OECD (1996) data for a sample of OECD countries relative to the United States, we estimate the model's structural equations. The results suggest that government expenditures influence equilibrium real exchange rates approximately equally via the resource-withdrawal and consumption-tilting channels. Moreover, the results imply that government spending and private consumption are complements in utility.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1275. The Institutional Dimension of WTO Accession Observations and Practical Guidelines for Improving National Trade-related Governance Capacities

Author:
Uwe Schmidt
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
For developing countries and economies in transition, accession to and membership in the global trade body is a delicate and cumbersome experience. The need to bring national legislation into conformity with WTO rules, negotiating and implementing concessions on market access for trade in goods and services, transparency requirements, emerging new trade issues (e. g. environmental standards), and the necessity to establish and maintain professional trade-related research competence places heavy burdens on applicants and developing members that not infrequently exceed their institutional capacity for formulating policy options or negotiation strategies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1276. China — Securities Opening

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued rules on June 3 outlining the participation of foreign firms in fund management and securities business. Issued earlier than expected, the rules re-state concessions made in the trade and investment agreement China signed with the United States in November 1999. Modernisation and liberalisation of the sector is a prerequisite to channelling more of China's 1 trillion dollars of private savings to equity investment.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and China

1277. International — Auto Consolidation

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Fiat announced a sharp fall in May car sales in Italy on June 5 and its debt is under review for a possible ratings downgrade. The world's sixth-largest car maker is one of many manufacturers facing difficult profitability conditions. Global sales volumes in the industry have remained high, but profits have not followed suit. Mergers, the most rational panacea, are confounded by bitter experience.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1278. International — Weak Dollar

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece is on the international implications of a weaker US dollar. Seventeen weeks of dollar weakness raise the questions of whether the dollar is on a sustained path of decline, and what the implications are internationally. The 6% nominal effective decline in the dollar since January 31 might be sustained due to US financial and macroeconomic factors. Overall, the effect would be positive for Europe and the United States, and might encourage domestic demand growth in export-oriented Asian economies.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1279. United States — First-Quarter Surge

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
First-quarter GDP grew by 5.8%, the US government announced on Friday, 26 April 2002. The high growth figure will provide sustenance for optimists and help support high stock market valuations. However, the contrast with high-profile corporate earnings disappointments, together with a closer look at sources of demand, suggests a far weaker performance in the rest of 2002 and in 2003.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1280. International — Global Economy

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A textbook approach to economic growth suggests the world is in for a difficult period. However, there are reasons to believe that the global economy will defy convention. The global economy will continue to support US external imbalances for the medium term, barring marked deterioration in certain areas of US weakness. However, European integration and Asian development could provide alternative sources of global demand, relieving the current imbalance of global dependence on the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe