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1112. The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: a preliminary assessment
- Author:
- Mark P Thirlwell
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Australia, and Australia/Pacific
1113. North American Agriculture under NAFTA
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Yee Wong
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The NAFTA agreement on agricultural trade consists of three bilateral agreements—between the United States and Mexico, the United States and Cana da, and Canada and Mexico. The US-Canada agreement largely carried into NAFTA the tariff and nontariff barrier rules that had been adopted in the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). Under CUSFTA, most agriculture tariffs between the United States and Canada were to be phased out by January 1998, and this schedule was adopted by NAFTA for US-Canada agricultural trade. However, Canada was allowed to maintain permanent tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) restrictions on imports of dairy, poultry, and eggs; and the United States was allowed to maintain TRQs on imports of sugar, dairy products, and peanuts from Canada (see table 1). Although a tariff snapback provision remains in effect until 2008, it has rarely been used by Canada. Agricultural trade between Mexico and Canada was limited by virtually the same restrictions. As might be expected, some agriculture trade associations favored NAFTA and others opposed. Box 1 summarizes the lineup of important trade associations.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico
1114. NAFTA Dispute Settlement Systems
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Yee Wong
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Building on the 1989 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), the NAFTA contains dispute settlement provisions in six separate areas. NAFTA Chapter 11 is designed to resolve investor-state disputes over property rights; Chapter 14 creates special provisions for handling disputes in the financial sector via the Chapter 20 dispute settlement process (DSP); Chapter 19 establishes a review mechanism to determine whether final antidumping and countervailing duty decisions made in domestic tribunals are consistent with national laws; and Chapter 20 provides government-to-government consultation, at the ministerial level, to resolve high-level disputes. In addition, the NAFTA partners created interstate dispute mechanisms regarding domestic environmental and labor laws under the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAALC), respectively. This chapter examines the first four dispute settlement systems; the NAAEC and NAALC systems are evaluated in the environment and labor chapters of this book.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
1115. What Went Right in Japan
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
1116. Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- During the past year, there has been considerable debate about, and much international criticism of, China's exchange rate and its currency regime. Yes, criticism of China in the United States would likely be more muted if the ongoing recovery were not so “jobless,” if employment in the US manufacturing sector had not (mainly for other reasons) declined so much in the three-year run-up to this presidential elect ion year, if so much attention were not focused on the very large bilateral US trade deficit with China instead of China's economically—more meaningful overall balance-of-payments position, and if the United States had not done such a poor job of improving its saving-investment imbalance—particularly in the public sector.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
1117. The US Current Account, New Economy Services, and Implications for Sustainability
- Author:
- Catherine L. Mann
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This essay considers the implications for sustainability of the US current account of widespread uptake of new economy services around the world. The main contribution of this paper is to estimate new income elasticities for US exports and imports of services that have become increasingly internationally tradable on account of the networked information technologies characteristic of the new economy. These elasticity estimates are then incorporated into a simple model of the US current account. Assumptions on the increase in global growth coming from widespread uptake of new economy services around the world are taken from other sources. The new estimates of income elasticities and the assumptions on global growth yield a trajectory for the US current account deficit that is compared to a base case without increased integration of new economy services in international trade and around the world. The paper concludes that although new economy services reduce the asymmetry in estimated income elasticities and contribute to raising global growth, reasonable estimates of these two structural improvements are not sufficient to stabilize the US current account deficit, in part because the share of new economy services in trade is still small.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1118. Time for More Currency Flexibility
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The last big wave of European and Japanese concern about a weak dollar came after the August 1971 breakdown of the Bretton Woods System of fixed exchange rates. At that time European countries feared inflation and, not wanting to support the dollar and thereby import U.S. inflation pressures, they accepted revaluation of their currencies with some misgivings because, as always, a weaker dollar meant more difficulty in competing with vigorous U.S. traded-goods companies.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1119. The Recovery: Three Years On
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- The U.S. post-bubble economic recovery, which officially began in November 2001 after a recession of just six months, will be three years old by election day. The prior recession had lasted a mere eight months-from July 1990 to March 1991-and was followed by an expansion of ten years, the longest on record. The expansion before that one lasted ninety-two months-from November 1982 through July 1990-following a recession of just sixteen months. The period following November 1982 until the stock market crash of March 2000 witnessed one of the longest and most powerful stock market rallies in U.S. history, accompanied by falling inflation and falling interest rates. The remarkable performance of the last twenty or so years will be difficult to match over the next decade. Indeed, merely sustaining the growth in the current expansion will require some changes to current policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
1120. Oil and Stagflation
- Author:
- John H. Makin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- I am not an expert on the price of oil. But many who claim to be have been saying for months that its price should drop back below $25 or $30 per barrel. Meanwhile, the actual price has risen steadily to nearly $50 per barrel as this Outlook goes to press.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States