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231. Navigating Negotiations in Afghanistan

Author:
Matt Waldman
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
There are reasons for skepticism about government-insurgent talks, especially as both sides are known for abusive, unjust and discriminatory policies. However, given the constraints of counterinsurgency, obstacles to an anticipated security transition, and the threat of worsening conflict, the potential for negotiations should be explored. Field research indicates that the coalition's military surge is intensifying the conflict, and compounding enmity and mistrust between the parties. It is therefore reducing the prospects of negotiations, which require confidence-building measures that should be incremental, structured and reciprocal. Strategies should be developed to deal with powerful spoilers, on all sides, that may try to disrupt the process. The form of pre-talks, and the effectiveness of mediators and “track two” interlocutors, will be critical. Pakistan provides assistance to, and has significant influence over, the Taliban. Talks require Pakistan's support, but giving its officials excessive influence over the process could trigger opposition within Afghanistan and countermeasures from regional states. The perceived threat from India is driving Pakistan's geostrategic policies, thus concerted efforts are required to improve Pakistan-India relations. Negotiations could lead to a power-sharing agreement, but implementation would be highly challenging, especially due to multifarious factional and other power struggles. An agreement could also involve constitutional or legislative changes that curtail fundamental civil and political rights, especially those of women and girls. Genuine reconciliation efforts are required to build better relations between hostile groups. For legitimacy and viability, any settlement must be both inclusive and just: it should therefore seek to reflect the aspirations of all elements of Afghanistan's diverse society. It should also seek to address underlying causes of the conflict, especially the abuse of power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India

232. Chronology : 16 November 2009 - 15 February 2010

Author:
Michele K. Esposito
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
This section is part of a chronology begun in JPS 13, no. 3 (Spring 1984). Chronology dates reflect Eastern Standard Time (EST). For a more comprehensive overview of events related to the al-Aqsa intifada and of regional and international developments related to the peace process, see the Quarterly Update on Conflict and Diplomacy in this issue. 16 NOVEMBER As the quarter opens, Israel's siege of Gaza continues, with Israel barring all exports, all but limited humanitarian imports, and most cross-border transit by individuals (with very limited exceptions for extreme medical cases, VIPs, and international NGO workers). Violence in the West Bank is low and restrictions on Palestinian movement between major population centers have eased noticeably. Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are on hold as Palestinian Authority (PA) Pres. Mahmud Abbas refuses to resume negotiations until Israel implements a comprehensive settlement freeze (which Israel rejects).Today in Gaza, 4 Palestinians are injured when a smuggling tunnel under the Rafah border collapses. In the West Bank, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in and around Tubas, in Bayt Fajjar nr. Bethlehem, and in Qalandia refugee camp (r.c.) nr. Ramallah. Of note, 6 IDF soldiers refuse orders to dismantle structures at an unauthorized settlement outpost; they are relieved of duty pending a court-martial hearing. (NYT 11/17; OCHA, WP 11/18; PCHR 11/19) 17 NOVEMBER The Israeli Interior Min. approves construction of 900 new housing units in Gilo settlement in East Jerusalem, precipitating sharp criticism from the White House not only for the Gilo project but for “the continued pattern of evictions and demolitions of Palestinian homes” in Jerusalem; UN Secy.-Gen. Ban Ki-moon “deplores” the decision. In the West Bank, the IDF conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Bethlehem, Hebron (evicting 1 Palestinian family from their home, occupying it as an observation post), Jericho, Nablus. In the Jerusalem environs, Israeli forces demolish 2 Palestinian homes (1 in Wadi Qaddum, housing 30 Palestinians; 1 in Bayt Hanina, displacing 11 Palestinians). (IFM, NYT, OCHA, PLONAD, WP, WT 11/18; PCHR 11/19) 18 NOVEMBER New York State assemblyman Dov Hikind leads a delegation of 50 Jewish Americans to lay the cornerstone of a new settlement housing project (Nof Zion) in the Palestinian neighborhood of Jabal Mukabir in East Jerusalem (see Quarterly Update for details). Meanwhile, the IDF demolishes a Palestinian home and store in Issawiyya (14 residents) on the outskirts of Jerusalem, 4 Palestinian structures in other Arab areas of East Jerusalem, including Silwan. In the West Bank, the IDF searches greenhouses nr. Jenin, looking for unlicensed wells; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Tulkarm and nr. Jenin. Also in East Jerusalem, an Israeli youth stabs, wounds a Palestinian laborer in Ramat Eshkol settlement. The IDF also makes 2 incursions into s. Gaza nr. Abasan and Khuza to bulldoze land along the border fence, clearing lines of sight. Late in the day, unidentified Palestinians fire a rocket into Israel, causing no damage or injuries. In response, the IDF makes air strikes on 2 smuggling tunnels along the Rafah border (injuring 1 Palestinian) and on a Hamas training site in Khan Yunis (destroying 2 structures). (NYT, XIN 11/19; PCHR 11/25; JPI 11/27) 19 NOVEMBER In the West Bank, the IDF stages synchronized late-night raids on the homes of 5 PA intelligence officers in villages nr. Nablus and Salfit, detaining the men (including the PA's Salfit regional intelligence cmdr. Lt. Col. Muhammad `Abd al-Hamid Bani Fadil), marking Israel's first arrest of senior PA security officials in 3 yrs.; the IDF also relays to the PA a request to turn over a 6th intelligence officer, but the PA does not comply; the Israeli DMin. confirms the arrests but refuses to comment, with Palestinian security sources speculating (YA 11/20) that Israel was pressuring the PA to back off investigation of a suspected collaborator; all 5 are released on 11/20 after talks between Israel and the PA. The IDF also stages synchronized late-night house searches in 3 villages w. of Jenin, making no arrests. IDF undercover units traveling in a car with Palestinian license plates enter Bil`in village, arrest a Palestinian on an Israeli wanted list. (YA 11/20; OCHA, PCHR 11/25) 20 NOVEMBER In the West Bank, the IDF fires rubber-coated steel bullets, stun grenades, tear gas at stone-throwing Palestinians taking part in weekly protests against the separation wall in Bil`in (10s suffer tear gas inhalation) and against Palestinian, Israeli, and international activists taking part in weekly nonviolent demonstration against the separation wall in Ni`lin (injuring 3 Palestinians); fires stun grenades and tear gas at Palestinian and international activists taking part in the weekly nonviolent demonstration against the separation wall in al-Ma`sara s. of Bethlehem (injuring 3 Palestinians, including a 9-yr.-old boy); conducts late-night arrest raids on several coffee shops nr. Qalqilya, detaining 3 PA security officers and 3 teenagers (including a 14-yr.-old boy). In Hebron, Jewish settlers fr. Ma'on in Hebron beat 4 Palestinian youths tending sheep nearby, chasing them off the land; Jewish settlers fr. Carmiel attack and vandalize a Palestinian home nearby, attempting to drive the Palestinian family off the land. (OCHA, PCHR 11/25) 21 NOVEMBER In Gaza, unidentified Palestinians fire a rocket into Israel, causing no damage or injuries. The IDF retaliates with air strikes on 2 suspected weapons factories and a smuggling tunnel on the Rafah border, injuring 8 Palestinians (2 seriously, 2 moderately, 4 lightly) and damaging another 2 factories and 4 homes nearby. Hrs. later, Hamas announces that it has secured renewed pledges from all Gaza factions to halt all rocket and mortar fire toward Israel, to preserve the stability in Gaza and prevent further Israeli retaliation, though the factions say they will respond to any IDF incursion into Gaza. (YA 11/21; HA, WT 11/22; WT 11/23; OCHA, PCHR 11/25; WJW 11/26) 22 NOVEMBER In the West Bank, the IDF makes a late-night incursion into Bayt Liqiya nr. Ramallah, patrolling the streets and firing rubber-coated steel bullets at stone-throwing youths who confront them, causing no reported injuries; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Jenin, Qalqilya. (OCHA, PCHR 11/25) 23 NOVEMBER Unidentified Palestinians fire a rocket fr. Gaza into Israel, causing no damage or injuries. Late in the evening, the IDF carries out air strikes on smuggling tunnels on the Rafah border in retaliation, causing no reported injuries. In the West Bank, the IDF conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Qalqilya; conducts late-night patrols inside Jenin town. Jewish settlers stone Palestinian vehicles traveling on the Nablus–Qalqilya road nr. Havat Gilad settlement. The UN reports that in the previous wk., 2 Palestinian militants were killed mishandling explosives, and 1 Palestinian was killed and 1 injured in a smuggling tunnel collapse on the Rafah border. (Jewish Telegraphic Agency 11/23; OCHA, PCHR 11/25) 24 NOVEMBER In the West Bank, the IDF conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Salfit and nr. Bethlehem, Hebron, Jenin. (OCHA, PCHR 11/25; PCHR 12/3) 25 NOVEMBER In the West Bank, the IDF conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Qalqilya and nr. Nablus, Salfit. (PCHR 12/3; OCHA 12/9) Netanyahu declares a 10-mo. halt to all new residential housing approvals and construction in West Bank settlements, though building in East Jerusalem and work on 2,900 West Bank housing units currently under construction and any “public buildings essential for normal life” (e.g., schools, synagogues) in West Bank settlements would proceed. The U.S. welcomes this move as “significant.” PA PM Salam Fayyad says that the offer is not enough, the PA insists on a total settlement freeze. (IFM 11/25; NYT, WP, WT 11/26)
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

233. China-Japan Security Relations

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The recent clash between a Chinese fishing vessel and the Japanese coast guard in the East China Sea demonstrates continuing potential for conflict between China and Japan over territory and maritime resources, one that could affect the United States. China's stronger navy and air force in and over the waters east and south of the country's coast is one dimension of that country's growing power. But the deployment of these assets encroaches on the traditional area of operations of Japan's navy and air force - and a clash between Chinese and Japanese ships and planes cannot be ruled out.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Asia

234. U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan

Author:
Richard L. Armitage and Samuel R. Berger
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Al-Qaeda's attack on September 11, 2001, was the deadliest terrorist assault on the United States in history. In the hours and days that followed, Americans learned more about the perpetrators and their links to bases and networks in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Less than a month later, President George W. Bush launched Operation Enduring Freedom. Much changed nearly overnight as the United States focused military, economic, and diplomatic attention squarely on the region for the first time since the end of the Cold War. In Afghanistan, the Taliban regime—al-Qaeda's sympathetic host—was toppled. In Pakistan, the Pervez Musharraf regime was drafted into Washington's Global War on Terror.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

235. Turkey's Iran Policy: Between Diplomacy and Sanctions

Author:
Kadir Üstün
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed the fourth round of sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 9, 2010. Turkey, along with Brazil, voted in opposition to sanctions while Lebanon abstained from the vote. Turkey and Brazil's votes were particularly critical because they demonstrated a lack of unity within the international community. The rationale behind Brazil and Turkey's votes derived from the fact that the nuclear swap deal signed by Iran is, so far, the only concrete deal. It represents the only legal basis that the international community can build upon and hold Iran accountable. Although both countries' “no” votes were consistent with their diplomatic efforts, many analysts are criticizing Turkey in particular for not voting with its traditionally strong allies such as the US. Turkey's vote against the new round of sanctions represents an important milestone not because Turkey is abandoning its long-time allies but because Turkey is learning to make its own foreign policy calculations and decisions.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Turkey, Brazil, and Lebanon

236. The EU and Turkey in Energy Diplomacy

Author:
Dimitrios Triantaphyllou and Eleni Fotiou
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Since 2000, Turkey's Europeanisation process has affected the country's foreign policy both as a structural and a conjunctural factor. As a structural factor, the EU has had a good deal of influence on Turkey's political and security culture by introducing elements of “soft power” and by expanding the number of Turkey's foreign policymaking agents, particularly in the realm of “pipeline diplomacy.” As a conjunctural factor, the EU has affected Turkey's foreign policy rhetoric by introducing new negotiating chips, and thus complicating the “bargaining” process. However, in order for Turkey's energy diplomacy to achieve its goals, Turkey's strategy towards the Middle East and the Caucasus must become coherent and its approach towards the EU, the US, and Russia, balanced. Most importantly, the question of whether Turkey perceives “pipeline diplomacy” as a means to achieve energy independence, thus enhancing its security, or as leverage to increase its power, thus leading to its recognition as a regional hegemon, remains open.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Turkey, and Middle East

237. Russia, the United States, and Cyber Diplomacy: Opening the Doors

Author:
Greg Austin and Franz-Stefan Gady
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Russia and the United States have been unable to establish a common understanding in their bilateral diplomacy on most aspects of cyber security. In spite of a 1998 declaration of their interest in joint leadership of global responses to cyber security challenges, the two countries have acted more often than not like enemies guarding sensitive national security secrets rather than as allies committed to protecting common interests in the global digital economy and the socially networked world.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

238. U.S.-Japan-India Strategic Dialogue September 22-24, 2010

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
Recognizing the strategic potential for expanding cooperation on regional and global challenges and the shared values among the United States, Japan and India, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), and the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) initiated the U.S.-Japan-India Strategic Dialogue in June 2006.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and India

239. Taming the Revisionist State: The Effects of Military Defeats on the War-Proneness of Germany vs. Iraq

Author:
Benjamin Miller and Moran Mandalbaum
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
Following the post - 2003 US intervention in Iraq, and with a potential US use of force against Iran, one key analytical question stands out, which has major policy implications: Does military defeat by the great powers have stabilizing or de - stabilizing effects on the aggressive behavior of revisionist states? Somewhat similarly to the pre - 2003 Iraq invasion debate, the great powers have a number of options for dealing with the potential Iranian nuclear threat: diplomatic engagement, deterrence, or resort to military power -- either to bring about a regime change, or to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. Taking into account the possibility of resorting to force against Iran, an intriguing question emerges: what does IR theory lead us to expect -- and what does the historical record show -- with regard to the effects of military defeats on the war - propensity of revisionist states? In other words, why do some militarily defeated states become war - like, while others peaceful?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Germany

240. Turkey And The Middle East: Ambitions And Constraints

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Turkey is launching initiative after ambitious initiative aimed at stabilising the Middle East. Building on the successes of its normalisation with Syria and Iraq, it is facilitating efforts to reduce conflicts, expanding visafree travel, ramping up trade, integrating infrastructure, forging strategic relationships and engaging in multilateral regional platforms. For some, this new activism is evidence that Turkey is turning from its traditional allies in Europe and the United States. In fact, its increased role in the Middle East is a complement to and even dependent on its ties to the West.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia