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182. The Transatlantic Bargain
- Author:
- Mark D. Ducasse (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Book
- Abstract:
- NATO is often described as the most successful military alliance in history. In addition to longevity, those characterizing NATO this way are usually thinking of the Alliance's role in protecting freedom and guaranteeing peace in Europe against a hostile Soviet Union, right until the Iron Curtain fell. NATO's role in ending ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, and in helping to re-integrate Central and Eastern Europe into the mainstream of Europe, only added to this positive image of the Alliance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Soviet Union, and Balkans
183. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict
- Author:
- John Bowlus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center
- Abstract:
- On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia
184. Turkey and the Bomb
- Author:
- Sinan Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Though most states that want a nuclear weapon can get one through determined effort, the fact remains that most choose not to proliferate. Turkey is no exception. Not even the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is likely to push Ankara to develop its own nuclear weapons. The only circumstance where such a scenario would acquire a degree of likelihood is a breakdown in Turkey's security relationship with the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, and Middle East
185. Thinking About a Korean Denuclearization Treaty
- Author:
- Christopher Ford
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Even while officials of the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reportedly remain engaged in attempting to work out an arrangement pursuant to which the DPRK would return to the long-moribund Six-Party Talks process, there has been no shortage of commentators—including this author—who feel these negotiations are likely to founder on the rocks of Pyongyang's unwillingness, under essentially any conditions, to relinquish its nuclear weapons and associated infrastructure. Nevertheless, the DPRK claims that it remains genuinely interested in negotiations, making it at least theoretically possible that whatever their outcome, some kind of nuclear negotiations may recommence.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States and Korea
186. Kazakhstan and the United States: Twenty Years of Ambiguous Partnership
- Author:
- Sean R. Roberts
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In looking at twenty years of independence in the former Soviet region of Central Asia, Kazakhstan stands out in most respects as a stable oasis in a desert of uncertainty. It is the wealthiest country in Central Asia. It has not suffered any serious conflict since gaining independence, and the development of its economy, financial sector, and private sector has been steadily moving forward as has its engagement with the global economy. It is little wonder, therefore, that the most stable and fruitful bilateral partnership for the United States in the region over the past twenty years has been with the Republic of Kazakhstan. US-Kazakhstan relations have never experienced a significant crisis, and there has been ongoing cooperation between the two countries in a variety of areas, including nuclear non-proliferation, economic development, and energy extraction.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan
187. Security Challenges to Libya's Quest for Democracy
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Fadel Lamen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The fragile progress towards a more pluralistic, if not yet democratic, Libya is threatened by several serious security problems. Car bombings, political assassinations of high ranking officials, attacks on foreign diplomatic staff and NGOs, and violent quarrels between armed militiamen have become daily events. It is in the interests of the United States and other members of the international community to aid Libya's nascent government in achieving national reconciliation to avoid an otherwise inevitable descent into anarchy.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Diplomacy, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- United States, Libya, and North Africa
188. No Hedging in Canberra: The Australia-US Alliance in the "Asian Century"
- Author:
- Nick Bisley
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has just completed a lightning visit to Australia for formal discussions with newly installed Foreign Minister Bob Carr. In spite of the political turmoil that brought Carr to office, the Australia-US alliance is in the best shape of its 60-year history. Having begun as a Cold War convenience, about which the United States was not enthusiastic, it has become a key part of Washington's regional role and a cornerstone not only of Australia's defense and security policy, but of its broader engagement with the world. The arrival in early April of the US Marine Corps to begin six-month training rotations in Darwin is emblematic of the alliance's standing and its evolution.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
189. U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Legacies Help America
- Author:
- Robert Sutter
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- As Sino-American competition for influence enters a new stage with the Obama administration's re-engagement with Asia, each power's legacies in the region add to economic, military and diplomatic factors determining which power will be more successful in the competition. How the United States and China deal with their respective histories in regional affairs and the role of their non-government relations with the Asia- Pacific represent important legacies that on balance favor the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Asia
190. Hegemony in International Society
- Author:
- Barry Buzan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Carnegie Council
- Abstract:
- This book is the third in a series, following Legitimacy in International Society (2005) and International Legitimacy and World Society (2007), in which Ian Clark has applied the concept of legitimacy to the English School's way of thinking about both international society (the society of states) and world society (global civil society mainly in the form of nonstate actors). For Clark, legitimacy is what defines both rightful conduct and rightful membership in society. Following the English School tradition, his main focus in terms of rightful conduct is on the primary institutions of international society: such deep practices as sovereignty, nationalism, diplomacy, the balance of power, great power management, and the like that constitute both the actors and the rules of the game of international society. This approach contrasts with the focus on secondary institutions—intergovernmental organizations, regimes, and other consciously constructed, instrumental entities—that is characteristic of liberal approaches to International Relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States