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482. Commentaries: The U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2015: Excerpts, Commentaries, And Response
- Author:
- Ellen Laipson, Michael A. Ledeen, Michael J. White, John Gannon, Eugene J. Carroll, Richard P. Cincotta, Johanna Mendelson Forman, Michael Hanssler, Liliana Hisas, Leslie Johnston, Gavin Kitchingham, Gayl D. Ness, David Rejeski, Ervin J. Rokke, Judith Shapiro, Aleksei V. Yablokov, and Arno Weinmann
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- In January 2001, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), a center within the Central Intelligence Agency that provides the agency's director with mid- and long-term strategic thinking and direction, published Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts. This unclassified and public report, which expanded on the NIC's previous effort Global Trends 2010, takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
483. Caribbean Tourism: Igniting the Engines of Sustainable Growth
- Author:
- Anthony T. Bryan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Tourism drives economic growth in ways that make it one of the best engines for job creation and development for poor countries that possess natural beauty and relevant infrastructure. The industry is highly labor intensive and encourages entrepreneurship. Under its ambit, property owners, restaurants, and local suppliers of goods and services, among others, develop the habits of risk taking without which no economy can realize its full potential. Tourism holds out the prospect of a better life for those stakeholders who make money from it. Not unlike trade, it improves an economy's competitiveness. Trade does so because it stimulates local suppliers to match the quality and variety of imported goods. Tourism does so because returning travelers to a destination demand the goods and services they have seen in other countries (Elliott 2001).
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Caribbean
484. Geography, Markets, Resources, and Development: The Assets of the Americas Revisited
- Author:
- L. Ronald Scheman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- In May 1996, the price of copper crashed from US$2,600 to $1,775 per ton. The Sumitomo Corporation of Japan acknowledged unprecedented losses of $2.6 billion from unauthorized trading by its chief copper trader, one of the faceless manipulators of the international commodities markets, Yasuo Hamanaka. Among the major banks caught in this modern variation of the Ponzi scheme were J.P. Morgan and the London Metal Exchange. Chile, whose economy was highly dependent on income from the commodity, was quickly and painfully reminded that the highly leveraged markets on which it depended, even in the hands of the most reputable institutions, are fragile and subject to unexpected forces beyond its control. Copper prices began a downward spiral, and they have not yet recovered.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Caribbean
485. Fieldwork Methodology for a CDIE Assessment of USAID and Poverty Reduction Approaches
- Author:
- Jonathan Sleeper and Lynn Salinger
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, U.N. agencies, many bilateral donors, and a number of developing countries have made poverty reduction their overarching development objective. The United States was a signatory in 1996 to the OECD/DAC's international development goals, which included halving of world poverty by 2015. Under the aegis of a comprehensive development framework which empowers national partners to design and implement their own development actions, debt relief for the world's most heavily indebted poor countries is being linked by the multinational development organizations to the development of national Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs).
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- United States
486. Complex Emergencies And USAID's Humanitarian Response
- Author:
- Lynda DeWitt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- In 1998 some 32 million people needed humanitarian assistance because they were caught up in complex emergencies (armed conflicts or civil wars). That same year, the United States spent $898 million on humanitarian assistance. This amount represented 10.2 percent of official development assistance and was more than triple the amount spent on humanitarian assistance in 1990.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
487. Banking and Finance Assistance
- Author:
- Eugene Spiro
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The Banking and Finance Assistance Centre (BFAC) of the East West Institute is an independent, international centre whose mission is to provide assistance to financial sector leaders in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU). BFAC was established in 1992 by the East West Institute in response to the need expressed by bank executives and finance officials in CEE for a centre to provide impartial, professional, technical advice and assistance in the course of designing and implementing reform initiatives. Supported, among others, by the EWI network and in particular the United States Agency for International Development, BFAC's projects also cover capital markets and pension reform and small- and medium-sized enterprise development.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Eastern Europe
488. The Coming Apathy: Africa Policy Under a Bush Administration
- Author:
- Salih Booker
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Policy Information Center
- Abstract:
- "There's got to be priorities," George W. Bush responded when asked about Africa in the second presidential campaign debate. Africa did not make his short list: the Middle East, Europe, the Far East, and the Americas. A Bush presidency portends a return to the blatantly anti-African policies of the Reagan-Bush years, characterized by a general disregard for black people and a perception of Africa as a social welfare case. Vice President Dick Cheney is widely expected to steer the younger Bush on most policy matters especially foreign affairs. Cheney's perspective on Africa in the 1980s was epitomized by his 1986 vote in favor of keeping Nelson Mandela in prison and his consistent opposition to sanctions against apartheid South Africa.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and South Africa
489. A Financial Architecture for Middle-Class-Oriented Development
- Author:
- Walter Russell Mead and Sherle R. Schwenninger
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The Case For Middle-Class-Oriented Development International financial architecture works best when it serves social goals that command widespread support and legitimacy. Without neglecting the more conventional goal of allowing the greatest possible global flow of capital with the least risk of financial crisis, the primary goal of international financial reform, for both economic and political reasons, ought to be to promote middle-class-oriented development around the world.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
490. Russia's Physical and Social Infrastructure: Implications for Future Development
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- During the past two years, the National Intelligence Council and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State sponsored a working group and four seminars with experts from outside the Intelligence Community to examine the impact of societal and infrastructural factors on Russia's future over the next two decades. The factors identified--demography, health, intellectual capital, and physical infrastructure--all pose great challenges to Russia. The purpose of the project was to begin to think through in systematic fashion the difficulties and opportunities confronting Russia's leadership in these four specific areas.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States