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461. Through the Fog of Peace Building: Evaluating the Reconstruction of Afghanistan

Author:
Barnett Rubin, Abby Stoddard, and Humayan Hamidzada
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
A year and a half after the defeat of the Taliban, anger is rising in Afghanistan at the slow pace of reconstruction. Success in reconstruction means meeting goals, not fulfilling pledges or being generous. The overriding goal is enabling Afghans to build a country that contributes to, rather than threatens, their own and global security. As the government of Afghanistan becomes better organized and articulates both this goal and what is needed to reach it more clearly, it has become evident that donors underestimated the amount of assistance required. Initial pledges fell short even of underestimates of the needs and were far less than in other comparable cases. Initial disbursements, which in past cases have always exceeded subsequent ones, came relatively quickly and nearly met pledges, as donors have highlighted (see figure 1). But most of these disbursements went for emergency humanitarian needs, not reconstruction. Implementation of those reconstruction projects that have been funded has been exceedingly slow, leaving little to show on the ground. As of May 2003, donors reported that in 17 months they had completed reconstruction projects with a total expenditure of only $191 million, out of $2.1 billion pledged to reconstruction for the first twelve months. Furthermore, according to Afghan government figures, only 16 percent of the total disbursements (including for humanitarian purposes) had passed through channels controlled by the struggling Afghan government and had thus failed to build that government's capacity or legitimacy. The pervasive insecurity outside of Kabul prevented implementation of major projects and sapped the public's confidence in the new authorities. Failure to strengthen the government and provide security will doom the reconstruction effort even if contributions increase. The government has articulated an ambitious policy framework for reconstruction and asked for both reconstruction and security assistance. Success is possible, and at a modest cost. Failure by the US and other major states to respond will doom Afghanistan, the region, and the world to a repetition of anarchy that gave birth to the Taliban and refuge to al-Qaida.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban

462. Mythmaking in the Rule of Law Orthodoxy

Author:
Frank Upham
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As governments and donor agencies struggle over questions of aid and international development, a growing consensus is emerging regarding the connections between poor governance and underdevelopment. An increasing number of initiatives, from the U.S. Millennium Challenge Account to the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD), explicitly link improving governance with pursuing sustainable development and poverty alleviation. Lack of pluralism and transparency, inefficient bureaucracies, and underdeveloped public institutions contribute to corruption, reduce governmental responsiveness to citizens' needs, stifle investment, and generally hamper social and economic development. A frequent donor favorite on the laundry list of “good governance” reforms advocated for developing countries is rule of law reform. The new development model contends that sustainable growth is impossible without the existence of the rule of law: a set of uniformly enforced, established legal regimes that clearly lays out the rules of the game.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

463. Sustaining a Revolution: A Policy for Crop Engineering

Author:
David Victor and C. Ford Runge
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Controversy, even fear, of new foods is not new. The tomato was widely regarded as poisonous in the United States and northern Europe as late as the 1830s, due to its relationship to the night-shade family of plants. There was such concern that in 1820, the state of New York banned their consumption. Tomatoes even had their own “Frankenfood” label: “wolf 's peaches.”
Topic:
Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

464. Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator in a Monetary Union

Author:
Simon Gilchrist, Jean-Olivier Hairault, and Hubert Kempf
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper, we consider the effect of a monetary union in a model with a significant role for financial market imperfections. We do so by introducing a financial accelerator into a stochastic general equilibrium macro model of a two country economy. We show that financial market imperfections introduce important cross-country transmission mechanisms to asymmetric shocks to supply and demand. Within this framework, we study the likely costs and benefits of monetary union. We also consider the effects of cross-country heterogeneity in financial markets. Both the presence of financial frictions and the use of a single currency have significant impacts on the international propagation of exogenous shocks. The introduction of asymmetries in the financial contract widens the difference in cyclical behavior of national economies in a monetary union, but financial integration compensates the loss of policy instruments.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

465. Regional Inflation in a Currency Union: Fiscal Policy vs. Fundamentals

Author:
Margarida Duarte and Alexandar L. Wolman
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We develop a general equilibrium model of a two-region currency union. There are two types of goods: non-trade goods, and traded goods for which markets are segmented. Monetary policy is set by a central monetary authority and is non-neutral due to nominal price rigidities. Fiscal policy is determined at the regional level by each region's government. We find that productivity shocks alone generate significant variation in inflation across the two countries. Government spending shocks, in contrast, do not account for a significant portion of inflation variation. Varying relative country size, we find that smaller countries experience higher variability of their inflation differential in response to shocks to productivity growth. Moreover, we show that regional governments can suppress incipient inflation differentials associated with shocks to productivity growth by letting the income tax rate respond negatively to inflation differentials.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

466. Fujimori's Financiers: How Japan Became the Largest Aid Donor in Latin America and Its Implications for Future Economic Development

Author:
Michael G. Donovan and Kwan S. Kim
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the historical development of Japan's economic relationship with Latin America and describes trends observed in the short and medium term. The main types of relations examined are trade, direct foreign investment, and official development assistance. Emphasis is placed on how Japan's postwar economic development is mirrored in its changing relationship with Latin America. The importance of relationships for both Japan and the United States is discussed, as are competing broad theoretical hypotheses about the nature and evolution of these relationships. The concluding section explores the impact of the Asian economic crisis on Latin America and assesses the feasibility of free trade agreements between Japan and certain Latin American nations.
Topic:
Development and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, South America, and Latin America

467. The Institutional Dimension of WTO Accession Observations and Practical Guidelines for Improving National Trade-related Governance Capacities

Author:
Uwe Schmidt
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
For developing countries and economies in transition, accession to and membership in the global trade body is a delicate and cumbersome experience. The need to bring national legislation into conformity with WTO rules, negotiating and implementing concessions on market access for trade in goods and services, transparency requirements, emerging new trade issues (e. g. environmental standards), and the necessity to establish and maintain professional trade-related research competence places heavy burdens on applicants and developing members that not infrequently exceed their institutional capacity for formulating policy options or negotiation strategies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

468. Sustaining Global Democratization: Priority Task Now More Than Ever

Author:
Morton H. Halperin, Paula Dobriansky, Paul Collier, Wayne Merry, Mark Palmer, and Elizabeth Spiro Clark
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
October 1, Mayor Rudy Guiliani told the UN Special Session on Terrorism “The best long term deterrent to terrorism . . . is the spread of our principles of freedom, democracy, the rule of law, and respect for human life. The more that spreads around the globe, the safer we will all be. These are very powerful ideas and once they gain a foothold, they cannot be stopped.” This forum on sustaining global democratization was planned well before September 11. However, the premise of our discussion is that the spread of democracy is now more important than ever in building a safe world.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States

469. Protecting the Environment While Opening Markets in the Americas

Author:
William Krist
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Market Access Negotiations are a major element of the efforts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by 2020. If successful, these negotiations will remove all tariff and nontariff barriers to trade among the 34 participating countries on all nonagricultural products, including forest and mining products, fish, and manufactured goods.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

470. The Twain Shall Meet: The Prospect for Russia - West Relations

Author:
Charles Grant, Christopher J. Makins, Sergey Rogov, Christoph Bertram, and Robert Nurick
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The integration of Russia into the West will be one of the most important, and most difficult, tasks facing the United States and Europe during the next decade. Yet a closer relationship with the West will be key to the development of Russian prosperity, democracy, and stability – achievements that will benefit the West as well as Russia. The attacks on September 11 and the resulting campaign against terrorism have given a decisive push to this effort, providing the political will for closer cooperation between Russia and the West.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia