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151. The Iraqi election "bait and switch": Faulty poll will not bring peace or US withdrawal

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
President Bush was correct when he asserted on 2 December 2004 that it was "time for the Iraqi citizens to go to the polls." Indeed, it is long past time. Elections should have occurred a year or so after the fall of the Hussein regime. But the fact that they are overdue does not mean that an adequate foundation for meaningfully democratic elections has been laid. It has not. Unfortunately, the balloting due to take place on 30 January will not fulfill the promise of democracy nor satisfy the Iraqi passion for selfdetermination. For these reasons, it cannot bring peace. It is more likely to exacerbate civil strife.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

152. Final Report: National Democratic Institute Final Report on the Palestinian Presidential Election, Jan. 9, 2005

Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
At the invitation of the Palestinian Central Election Commission (CEC), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), in partnership with The Carter Center (TCC), organized a 76- member international delegation to monitor the January 2005 Palestinian presidential election. The delegation was led by former United States President Jimmy Carter, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt and former New Jersey Governor and United States Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Christine Todd Whitman, and supported by a grant from the United States Agency for International Development.
Topic:
Civil Society and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

153. A Comedy of Errors: U.S.-Turkish Diplomacy and the Iraq War

Author:
Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Although the mistakes of the past two years in relations between the United States and Turkey cannot be undone, Washington and Ankara stand to lose a great deal if relations continue to deteriorate. If differences can be overcome, however, this partnership could help to resolve important regional issues such as the status of Kirkuk and Iraqi constitutional debates, and to ensure Iraqi stability and Turkish security.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Turkey

154. Post-Election Strategy in Afghanistan

Author:
Vance Serchuk
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On September 18, 2005, Afghanistan held its first democratic parliamentary and provincial elections in more than thirty-five years. The vote marks the successful completion of the transitional political process outlined by the 2001 Bonn Accords, the internationally brokered framework that has guided Afghanistan since the ouster of the Taliban. The United States and its allies in Kabul can rightly celebrate the passage of this milestone and the remarkable progress that has been achieved over the past four years. At the same time, the end of Bonn is also a natural time to raise questions about the Bush administration's long-term road map for Afghanistan. Two problems with the current American strategy—too much faith in NATO and too little investment in indigenous Afghan institutions—deserve particular attention.
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, America, Middle East, Taliban, and Kabul

155. Summary of Proceedings: Automated Voting and Election Observation

Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Automated voting (sometimes referred to as electronic or e-voting) technologies are increasingly used in elections across the world, particularly because they are often seen as symbolic of a country's level of modernization. The possibilities for rapid aggregation and analysis of results, as well as potentially greater accuracy, have all added to the attractiveness of computer-based voting equipment. There is little doubt that the ability to quickly publish results can be of particular advantage in conflict and post-conflict scenarios, where a prolonged period of counting can heighten tensions and reduce confidence in the final results. The potential to remove some traditional elements of unintentional voter error or intentional fraud can also contribute to greater confidence, while at the same time raising new questions.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

156. Dangerous Doctrine: How New U.S. Nuclear Plans Could Backfire

Author:
Michael M. May and Roger Speed
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In September 2002, President George W. Bush announced his new National Security Strategy. Although this doctrine retains some elements from the past, in some respects it is a bold departure from previous U.S. policy. It declares that the United States finds itself in a unique position of military and political dominance and that it has a moral duty to use this strength to establish a new liberal democratic world order. The National Security Strategy and Bush's supporting speeches argue that the United States must in effect establish and maintain a global military hegemony to secure its envisioned democratic, peaceful world. According to the strategy, carrying out this mission requires that any challenge to U.S. military dominance must be blocked, by force if necessary. A significant challenge to world stability comes from terrorists and certain states that are seeking weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Concerned that the Cold War doctrines of deterrence and containment may no longer work, and that "if we wait for threats to fully materialize, we will have waited too long," Bush announced in the National Security Strategy a new "preemption doctrine" against such threats. Earlier, in 2001, the Bush administration's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) addressed the nuclear aspect of the issue. The review recognized the new cooperative relationship with Russia and the rising threat from the potential proliferation of WMD. The latter point was seen as particularly important, since future conflict with a number of regional powers was thought possible--North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Libya all were thought to sponsor or harbor terrorists and to have active WMD and missile programs. The NPR presented a new U.S. strategic military doctrine intended to transform the defense establishment with the creation of a new triad, consisting of offensive strike systems (both nuclear and conventional), defenses (both active and passive), and a revitalized defense infrastructure that will provide new capabilities to meet emerging threats. According to the NPR, the new triad will have four primary missions: to assure, dissuade, deter, and defeat. Bush later added a fifth mission, to preempt, which he characterized as proactive counterproliferation--the use of military force to prevent or reverse proliferation. The "Bush doctrine" called for new nuclear weapons to meet the requirements of these missions. It was argued that smaller nuclear weapons could reduce collateral civilian damage and make U.S. use of nuclear weapons more "credible," therefore deterring hostile nations or even dissuading opponents from acquiring WMD. However, our analysis indicates that low-yield nuclear weapons would likely be militarily effective in only a few cases, and even then the collateral damage could be significant unless the targets were located in isolated areas. Moreover, even if they were militarily effective, they would likely add little or nothing to U.S. deterrent capability, nor be effective at dissuading WMD acquisition. Indeed, the new weapons concepts advanced to date seem to have little to do with deterrence of a nuclear (or other WMD) attack on the United States or its allies. Instead, they appear to be geared toward a warfighting role, which could ultimately undermine rather than enhance U.S. security.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States

157. Afghanistan: Old Problems, New Parliament, New Expectations

Author:
Emily Hsu and Beth DeGrasse
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
With the September 18 parliamentary elections, Afghanistan completes its internationally mandated blueprint for democracy and enters a new phase of state building in uncharted waters. This transition occurs against the backdrop of rising threats to security and an economy dominated largely by illicit production and export of opium. On October 12, 2005, the U.S. Institute of Peace convened a meeting of the Afghanistan Working Group to review the recent parliamentary elections. The presenters at the meeting included Robert Varsalone, resident country director for Afghanistan for the International Republican Institute; Sam Zia-Zarifi, research director for the Asia Division of Human Rights Watch; Larry M. Sampler, former chief of staff for the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan; and Barnett R. Rubin, chairman of the Afghanistan Working Group. The following USIPeace Briefing summarizes views expressed at the meeting. The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Institute, which does not take positions on policy issues.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

158. Europe's Uncertain Pursuit of Middle East Reform

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
DELIBERATION OF DEMOCRACY PROMOTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST intensified after the attacks of 9/11, and has been further energized by the transatlantic debates that were progeny of the Iraqi conflict. More intense debate over support for political change in the Middle East has forced the United States and Europe into a closer exploration of each other's actual and intended approaches to democracy promotion in the region. Debates have centered, in particular, on preparations for June's Group of Eight (G8) and EU–U.S. summits and the United States' proposed Greater Middle East Initiative. While many in the U.S. bemoan European irresolution, others acknowledge the need for American policy to understand and harness the EU's more pervasive presence in much of the Middle East. While Europeans express dismay at the Bush administration's heavy-handed instrumentalism, they have also been forced to engage with new U.S. initiatives that appear to heed the EU's own pleas for a focus on the root causes of instability. With the U.S. and EU eyeing each other over the parapets of their Iraqi-inspired wrangles, it is an opportune moment to delineate and critically assess how Europeans have developed their democracy promotion policies in the Middle East.
Topic:
Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Europe, and Middle East

159. Greater Middle East Initiative Off to a False Start

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Bush administration is preparing to launch a “Greater Middle East Initiative” at the G-8 summit meeting in June. The plan is to bring the United States, Europe, and the Middle East together around a set of commitments to help transform the region politically and economically. The time is indeed opportune for engagement on regional reform, but as planned, the initiative fails to establish a basis for genuine partnership and does little to address the real challenges of Arab democratization. The administration should rethink its approach and start a new process of genuine consultations to come to an agreement on how all three sides can work cooperatively to address the regional problems that threaten the security of Arab societies and the West.
Topic:
Democratization and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

160. Middle Eastern Democracy: Is Civil Society the Answer?

Author:
Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Iraq is obviously the overwhelming focus of the Bush administration's policy of attempting to transform the Middle East into a zone of liberal democracies. The United States is also trying to formulate a second, more gradual track of democracy promotion for the authoritarian and semiauthoritarian Arab states that make up the rest of the region. Strengthening civil society is often proposed as a key element of a U.S. strategy for this second track of Middle Eastern democracy promotion.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia