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441. A Model of Electoral Competition with Two-Year Terms

Author:
John C. Hansen and John M. Barron
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This paper will shed some light on the legislative voting literature by using a standard median voter model, however, the legislator's term is split into two distinct voting years. This allows us to analyze in more detail the voting decisions made by Congressmen. We estimate a voting record based on constituency variables and calculate the residual. We find that a higher first-year residual on the part of a congressman causes a lower probability of being reelected. In addition, we find that the first-year residual plays the key role in this lower reelection probability. The second-year residual lacks any consistent significance with regards to the reelection probability. In this paper, we also analyze two different effects that have been predominant in the literature: the sorting effect and the tenure effect. Using our comprehensive data set, from 1983-1996, we find that both effects do exist. Moreover, older congressmen (those closer to retirement) had lower residuals. For the years 1983 to 1992, the two effects counteracted each other and caused no net impact on the first-year residual. For the years 1993-1996, the sorting effect dominated the tenure effect and showed that members with higher tenures had lower first-year residuals.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States

442. Strategy, Revisited Analyzing the Shift from a Threat-Based to Capabilities-Based Approach to US Strategic Planning

Author:
Isaiah Wilson III
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
Making the best strategic and force choices in a free society is a difficult and lengthy process. The strategist and force planner must consider numerous international and domestic factors, including political, economic and military influences. [B]ecause planning involves preparing for the future, there is considerable uncertainty and much room for disagreement about preferred strategy and how forces should be structured, organized, and equipped. [E]qually valid arguments are often made for widely different choices, each depending on the objectives sought and the assumptions made about threats, challenges, opportunities, technological advances, and future political and economic conditions. This tendency is exacerbated by various advocates who focus on the single factor most important to them, such as the threat or budget, without a balanced attempt to explore the full dimensions of the problems.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

443. Organizing "Virtuality": Facilitating Effective Homeland Security through DoD's JC4I System

Author:
Isaiah Wilson III
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
The quest for ensuring a secure, but free society in the United States continues to this day. The attacks on the American homeland on September 11, 2001 shine a particularly stark light on the issue. The attacks on the homeland have shaken America's sensibilities regarding what is and what is not proper use of the active military within the territorial boundaries of the national state. In fact, the new sensibility is that DOD must have a direct role in executing the six functions of homeland security iterated by President Bush in Executive Order 13228 – detection, preparation, prevention, protection, response, and recovery. The fledgling Office of Homeland Security (see figure 1 in appendix ) continues to struggle with the implementation of the policy. The office, empowered to 'coordinate and facilitate' rather than command and control federal, state, and local HLS efforts, has left the office and its Director, Governor Tom Ridge, hamstrung.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

444. The Shape of Postwar South Asia

Author:
Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
The low priority that the United States placed on South Asia, led to the creation of a Taliban ruled terrorist safe haven in Afghanistan. To prevent such disasters in the future, the US must end its neglect, play an active role in the region, and commit sufficient energy and resources. The US must devise and implement an effective, well-funded, long-term strategy aimed at encouraging cooperation and regional integration. The strategy should stress clearly enunciated issues. These include: nonproliferation, demilitarization, regionally oriented economic development, poverty reduction, preservation of the environment, settling the Kashmir dispute, ending communal politics, and vitalizing the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Kashmir

445. Postwar Afghanistan – The Road From Here

Author:
Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This is a short evaluation of the prospects for postwar reconstruction in Afghanistan. It will conclude with a number of policy recommendations regarding the possible role that the United States can play in the establishing of a viable Afghan state. It reflects my experience in the region and as an intelligence analyst and Foreign Service Officer.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

446. Democratic America in Northeast Asia: U.S. Strategy, Theater Missile Defense, and Allied Defense Relationships

Author:
Sonya L. Finley
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
With the proliferation of ballistic and cruise missiles and weapons of mass destruction (WMD), American political leaders have embarked on a long-term plan for deploying Theater Missile Defense (TMD) as a means to protect the United States, US forces abroad, and allies. Effective on 13 June 2002, the United States is no longer party to the 1972 ABM Treaty and missile defense is a priority with "prominence in policy, funding, and organization." TMD essentially is a family of military weapon systems whose purpose is to intercept hostile missiles that have been launched, whether intentionally or unintentionally. However, the question remains whether Theater Missile Defense is, and will be, an integrated and effective tool in achieving overall US national security goals in Northeast Asia, namely enhancing regional security and reducing the threat of weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Asia

447. Today's Profits, Tomorrow's Losses: The Commercialization of US Arms Export Reform and its Implications on National and Regional Security

Author:
Isaiah Wilson III
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
Changes in the global arms market during the 1990s heralded a global downsizing of national military establishments, shrinkage of national defense industries, and a domestic loss of appetite for conventional weaponry in the United States. One of the many results has been the increased significance of foreign exporting. Through enhanced exporting, advanced arms producing states, namely the United States, have been able to assist their defense industry and military establishments survive the post-cold war downturn in domestic demand for conventional arms. These international level changes also led to second-order domestic efforts to reform the arms export processes within the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

448. Serbia: Military Intervention Threatens Democratic Reform

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Yugoslav Army's arrest on 14 March 2002 of a leading Serbian politician and a U.S. diplomat signals that for the first time the Army has openly entered the political arena and is explicitly attempting to set limits on political debate and policy. Serbian politicians will cross those red lines at their peril. The nationalist, conservative and corrupt military, which as the incident demonstrates is at least substantially beyond civilian control, seems intent on protecting important elements of the Milosevic legacy and is apparently now prepared to intervene more openly to influence negatively a broad range of policies, including the domestic reform agenda, cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, and relations with neighbouring countries. That Serbia is struggling to decide whether its course is toward the European mainstream or the reactionary polity of a Belarus should be of great concern to the international community.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

449. Missile Defence and European Security

Author:
François Heisbourg, Klaus Becher, Alexander Pikayev, and Ivo H. Daalder
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
European NATO countries have been spectators to the debate about defending the US against ballistic missile attacks. While there have been national differences in Europe's reactions to the national missile defence (NMD) programme, it is obvious that most Europeans don't like it. The French seem somewhat more convinced than others that missile defence is inherently foolish and unworkable. Some British experts seem to insist more than others that any programme that might undermine NATO's nuclear deterrence and strategic unity should be avoided. And perhaps Germans, more than others, worry about perceived dangers to the ABM and other arms control treaties, and generally about relations with Russia. Most Europeans at present believe that US defence against long-range ballistic missiles is a slap in the face for Russia, a dangerous provocation for China and an inadequate response to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missile technology.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Germany

450. Nasty, Brutish and Long: America's War on Terrorism

Author:
Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The post–cold war era ended abruptly on the morning of September 11, 2001. From the moment terrorists turned jetliners into weapons of mass destruction, the United States was inescapably engaged in a new “war” against global terrorism. The Bush administration now intends to make that war the central organizing principle of America's foreign and defense policies.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and America