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5941. The US Current Account, New Economy Services, and Implications for Sustainability

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This essay considers the implications for sustainability of the US current account of widespread uptake of new economy services around the world. The main contribution of this paper is to estimate new income elasticities for US exports and imports of services that have become increasingly internationally tradable on account of the networked information technologies characteristic of the new economy. These elasticity estimates are then incorporated into a simple model of the US current account. Assumptions on the increase in global growth coming from widespread uptake of new economy services around the world are taken from other sources. The new estimates of income elasticities and the assumptions on global growth yield a trajectory for the US current account deficit that is compared to a base case without increased integration of new economy services in international trade and around the world. The paper concludes that although new economy services reduce the asymmetry in estimated income elasticities and contribute to raising global growth, reasonable estimates of these two structural improvements are not sufficient to stabilize the US current account deficit, in part because the share of new economy services in trade is still small.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

5942. Iraq Reconstruction Update #5: Retaking Fallujah

Author:
Michael Donovan
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The insurgency in Iraq has grown in size and effectiveness in the months since a U.S.-led coalition invaded the country. By the summer of 2004, Pentagon officials were revising their initial estimates of the size of the insurgency by a factor of four. Baghdad and Mosul remained open cities to insurgents, and coalition casualty figures were rising steadily. Even as coalition authorities and the Iraqi interim government began to consider preparations for elections to be held in 2005, 20-30 towns in northeastern Iraq remained outside of coalition control. In an effort to pacify these predominantly Sunni areas, coalition officials devised a plan to retake key towns, and, it was hoped, strike at the heart of the insurgency. As a centerpiece to this plan, on Nov. 8, 2004, U.S. Marine and Army units, complemented by some Iraqi troops, embarked on Operation Phantom Fury, the retaking of the town of Fallujah.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

5943. Law Watch - Detainees: Supreme Court Guantanamo Decision

Author:
Steven C. Welsh
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
With a decision notably brief for the mountain of argument leading up to it, the U.S. Supreme Court in Rasul v. Bush held on June 28, 2004, that foreign nationals imprisoned without charge at the Guantanamo Bay interrogation camps were entitled to bring legal action challenging their captivity in U.S. federal civilian courts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, International Law, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

5944. Where Does Haiti Go from Here?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The collapse of President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's government in Haiti and his unseemly flight out of the country may have come as a surprise to Americans and others who were not watching closely. It could not have been unexpected by those who were. Haitian history tends to repeat itself, and after a long detour, the circle closed once again. Even the sudden occupation of the country by a multinational force headed by the U.S. Marines is not without precedent. The big question is whether this time the cycle of failure will be broken.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

5945. Argentina Has Seen the Past—And It Works (For Now)

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Probably more than any other Latin American country, the Argentine Republic is susceptible to abrupt changes of spirit and mood. Ten years ago it was apparently hurling itself, pell-mell, into the twenty-first century as South America's great example of economic liberalization and diplomatic alignment with the United States. Today both notions are distinctly out of fashion there, and no wonder—the advantages of both were drastically oversold to the public by the administration of President Carlos Menem (1989-1999). At the end of 2000 the economy virtually collapsed; for a time it appeared as if the country might actually dissolve as a coherent political community. Thanks to the strong hand of Senator Eduardo Duhalde, who took over at the end of 2000 from Fernando de la Rúa, Menem's successor, civic order was restored, though the last three years have been the worst in Argentina's modern history, more dismal even than the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

5946. Time for More Currency Flexibility

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The last big wave of European and Japanese concern about a weak dollar came after the August 1971 breakdown of the Bretton Woods System of fixed exchange rates. At that time European countries feared inflation and, not wanting to support the dollar and thereby import U.S. inflation pressures, they accepted revaluation of their currencies with some misgivings because, as always, a weaker dollar meant more difficulty in competing with vigorous U.S. traded-goods companies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

5947. The Recovery: Three Years On

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The U.S. post-bubble economic recovery, which officially began in November 2001 after a recession of just six months, will be three years old by election day. The prior recession had lasted a mere eight months-from July 1990 to March 1991-and was followed by an expansion of ten years, the longest on record. The expansion before that one lasted ninety-two months-from November 1982 through July 1990-following a recession of just sixteen months. The period following November 1982 until the stock market crash of March 2000 witnessed one of the longest and most powerful stock market rallies in U.S. history, accompanied by falling inflation and falling interest rates. The remarkable performance of the last twenty or so years will be difficult to match over the next decade. Indeed, merely sustaining the growth in the current expansion will require some changes to current policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

5948. Oil and Stagflation

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
I am not an expert on the price of oil. But many who claim to be have been saying for months that its price should drop back below $25 or $30 per barrel. Meanwhile, the actual price has risen steadily to nearly $50 per barrel as this Outlook goes to press.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States

5949. As Good As It Gets

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Old habits die hard. Often, criticism leveled at policymakers is well founded. I certainly have offered up my share. But as 2003 ends and 2004 begins, we find ourselves at a point where the performance of the U.S. economy is about as good as it gets. The stock market is up 20 percent this year, inflation and interest rates are low, productivity growth is high, and U.S. exports are rising strongly. The biggest danger going forward arises from ill-founded criticism aimed at policy measures employed to achieve this excellent outcome and the (fortunately low) chance that policymakers will heed such criticism.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

5950. Banning Hizballah TV in America

Author:
Matthew Levitt and Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Seeking to prevent terror propaganda and incitement to terror in America, the U.S. government added al-Manar (Arabic for "the beacon"), the official television mouthpiece of Hizballah, or the Lebanese Party of God, to the Terrorism Exclusion List (TEL). By designating the network as a terrorist organization the government will effectively take Hizballah television off the air in the United States by denying entry to its employees and to anyone who supports the network.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries