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5751. China Brief, Balancing U.S. Interests in the Strait

Author:
Ronald N. Montaperto, Willy Lam, Cynthia Watson, and Jean-Pierre Cabestan
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In the view of many observers, the normalization of Sino-American relations signaled the end of a strategic relationship with the Republic of China (Taiwan) that had endured with but one brief interruption for forty years. The rapid growth of economic ties between the U.S. and mainland China in the 1980s seemed to confirm this assessment. Although political connections through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) remain strong, the major benefit to the United States of its unofficial relationship to the island lies in the economic realm.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan

5752. China Brief, Kim Jong-Il's Visit to Beijing: What Does it Mean for the West?

Author:
Mohan Malik, Matthew Oresman, Willy Lam, and Paul H.B Godwin
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The unusually effusive reception that the Chinese leadership accorded Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il last week has buttressed speculation that Beijing and Pyongyang probably reached some form of a deal even prior to the long awaited visit. According to diplomatic sources in Beijing, Kim agreed during discussions with his Chinese hosts to take a “more serious and proactive stance” toward the ongoing six-nation talks on dismantling his country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Moreover, the sources said the reclusive leader pledged that unless there was further “provocation” from the United States, Pyongyang would not engage in tension raising gimmicks such as testing bombs or missiles. And, at least for the time being, a freeze would be put on the development of new WMD.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Beijing, and Pyongyang

5753. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy

Author:
Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang

5754. Missile Defense All Over Again

Author:
Michelle Ciarrocca
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Under President Clinton, it became U.S. policy to deploy a National Missile Defense (NMD) system "as soon as technologically feasible." However, Clinton's commitment to missile defense was tempered by his pledge to base a deployment decision on four criteria: the overall cost of the program, its technical feasibility, an assessment of the ballistic missile threat facing the United States, and the impact that NMD might have on arms control and arms reduction efforts. In contrast, President Bush has set no criteria to constrain deployment.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

5755. U.S. Military Bases in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
John Lindsay-Poland
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
The United States maintains a complex web of military facilities and functions in Latin America and the Caribbean, what the U.S. Southern Command (known as SouthCom) calls its "theater architecture." U.S. military facilities represent tangible commitments to an ineffective supply-side drug war and to underlying policy priorities, including ensuring access to strategic resources, especially oil.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Caribbean

5756. On the Role of Distance for Outward Foreign Direct Investment

Author:
Peter Egger
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the estimation of three distance-related effects on outward foreign direct investment (FDI). (i) Distance harms vertical multinationals, since they engage in trade. (ii) It makes non-trading multinationals better off than exporters. (iii) This positive effect on horizontal FDI is expected to rise with bilateral country size due to the home market effect. The use of panel data and related econometric methods is highly recommended to avoid parameter bias from endogenous, unobserved, time-invariant effects. A unified estimation approach to assess all three hypotheses then has to rely on instrumental variable techniques for generalized leastsquares methods. In the empirical analysis of 1989–1999 bilateral US outward FDI stocks at the industry level, it is shown that testing and accounting for autocorrelation is extremely important for parameter inference. In sum, the paper lends strong support to the theory of horizontally organized multinationals as outlined in Markusen and Venables (2000).
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

5757. A Way Out of the Mesopotamian Morass? The Case for a Partitioned Iraq

Author:
Ivan Eland
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
The United States has plunged into an Iraqi swamp. The swashbuckling victory in the first Gulf War led to the most egregious sin that can be made in the military affairs—hubris and underestimation of the enemy. The U.S. and Soviet superpowers made the same mistake respectively in Vietnam in the sixties and seventies and Afghanistan in the eighties. But as those quagmires fade from memory, government officials apparently have to relearn the same lessons.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Soviet Union, and Vietnam

5758. Prostitution and Sex Crimes

Author:
Kirby R. Cundiff
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
In this paper I examine the hypothesis that the frequency of rape is increased when another source of sex (prostitution) is limited or unavailable. To test this theory I regressed the rape rate in available OECD countries against a proxy for the availability of prostitution and, to remove the general propensity for violence in the society, against the homicide rate and the availability of prostitution. The one variable regression model was anti-correlated with borderline significance. In the multiple regression model the rape rate was shown to be correlated with the homicide rate and anti-correlated with the availability of prostitution. Both relationships were at above the 95% confidence level. It is estimated that if prostitution were legalized in the United States, the rape rate would decrease by roughly 25% for a decrease of approximately 25,000 rapes per year.
Topic:
Crime, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States

5759. The U.S. – ROK Alliance: Building a Mature Partnership

Author:
James J. Przystup and Kang Choi
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In thinking about the future direction of the alliance between the United States and South Korea, one needs to start in the past. For in this case, the past is truly prologue. More than a decade ago, as President George H.W. Bush came into office, structural changes in the security landscape of Asia were becoming manifest. The Cold War was winding down. Congress and the American public were looking for returns on the “peace dividend.” There was a clear expectation that cuts would be coming across the board — and in Asia, these cuts would begin with the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Asia, South Korea, and Korea

5760. Strategic Surprises for a New Administration

Author:
Jason R. Wisniewski
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy's Schlesinger Working Group met during the fall of 2004 to discuss potential strategic surprises that could confront a new administration. The group focused on identifying candidate surprises and scenarios that could appear early in its term. Some examples of events the group sought to anticipate included trend reversals, out-of-the blue surprises, or second-order surprises caused by currently “visible” possibilities. During its first meeting, held shortly before the presidential election, the group discussed over a dozen possible scenarios in political, military, economic, and environmental fields. This list was further developed in intensive discussion in early December. This report draws on those discussions whose purpose was not to predict but to think “outside the box,” and concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the second Bush Administration.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States