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5631. The Countdown for Bashar al-Asad and Lebanon

Author:
Robert Rabil
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 25, 2005, Lebanese journalist May Chidiac nearly lost her life in yet another car bomb attack on prominent Lebanese figures who are critical of Syria. Led by German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, the international commission charged with investigating the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri is expected to issue a report on its findings to the UN Security Council on October 21. Many Lebanese fear that during the countdown to the report, which reportedly may implicate senior Syrian officials in Hariri's assassination, Syria and its allies in Lebanon might try to destabilize the country in an act of retribution against the Lebanese opposition and the "ungrateful" country.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

5632. Al-Qaeda's North African Franchise: The GSPC Regional Threat

Author:
Emily Hunt
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 29, Algerians will vote on President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's proposed Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation, a policy that would provide amnesty for most of the one-thousand Islamic terrorists the government believes are still hiding in Algeria and neighboring countries. Between three hundred and five hundred of the terrorists still at large belong to the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC). This cadre of Afghanistan-trained, al-Qaeda-linked militants was behind the September 24 ambush of a police patrol east of Algiers that killed eight people. These holdouts have shown no interest in a government amnesty, despite the Algerian population's clearly waning interest in Islamist-inspired political violence.
Topic:
Security, Peace Studies, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and North Africa

5633. The Black Sea Basin: A New Axis in Global Maritime Security

Author:
Orhan Babaoglu
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group (BLACKSEAFOR), a regional maritime security initiative started by Turkey in 2001, was activated August 14-27. With world attention devoted to Iraq and the Middle East, important developments in the nearby Black Sea region involving energy politics, frozen conflicts, and new regional security initiatives have gone mostly unnoticed. The Black Sea is a stable but complex basin with vast economic resources and strategic importance as a medium for energy transportation. Is the Black Sea a bridge or a barrier between United States and Turkey? Does the issue of Black Sea security provide an opportunity to mend deteriorated relations or a new source of friction?
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

5634. Iranian Media Reactions to the Nuclear Impasse

Author:
Sana Nourani
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iran's hardline establishment often declares that all Iranian citizens are united in their determination to see Iran exercise its "right" to nuclear power and "self-sufficiency" — that is, operation of the complete fuel cycle. But are all Iranians really so enthused by the national nuclear program and heedless of international repercussions? What follows is a collection of Iranian reactions to the recent nuclear impasse.
Topic:
Civil Society and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

5635. Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq: A Progress Report

Author:
Jeffrey White, Jack Keane, and Francis West
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Daily images of carnage from Iraq and uncertainty over how to measure coalition progress continue to stoke debate in the United States. How does one assess the status of the insurgency? How are the efforts to recruit and train Iraq's security forces proceeding? What are America's options in Iraq?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Vietnam, and Syria

5636. Anatolian Eagle Air Warfare Training: A Valuable Turkish Contribution to NATO, the United States, and the World

Author:
Haluk Sahar
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Anatolian Eagle is one of the largest and most complex joint air force exercises in the world, paralleled only by Red Flag, held periodically at Nevada's Nellis Air Force Base, and the annual Maple Flag exercise in Canada. The Turkish Air Force (TUAF) is now preparing for the multinational leg of the next Anatolian Eagle, scheduled to take place September 12-23. Anatolian Eagle has obvious public relations value for Turkey and its air force as hosts of the event. Moreover, as an exercise mimicking realistic aerial war minutes away from the U.S. forces, it also serves as an important component of U.S.-Turkish military cooperation.
Topic:
International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, and Middle East

5637. Changing the Guard at the Saudi Embassy in Washington

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 20, the Saudi foreign ministry announced that Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the long-serving Saudi ambassador to the United States, was stepping down, and that "the process of nominating" Prince Turki al-Faisal, the current Saudi ambassador in London, to replace him had begun. When the widely anticipated death of the recently hospitalized, eighty-four-year-old King Fahd occurs, both Prince Turki and Prince Bandar, as senior "next generation" princes, could be crucial players.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Washington, and Middle East

5638. The U.S.-Turkish Relationship beyond Iraq: Common Values, Common Agenda

Author:
R. Nicholas Burns
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 18, 2005, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns addressed The Washington Institute's Seventh Turgut Ozal Memorial Lecture. Undersecretary Burns's prepared remarks were delivered by Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Daniel Fried. The following are excerpts from the speech followed by a summary of the subsequent question-and-answer session. "Today, we have all gathered to honor Turgut Ozal, a strong leader with a clear vision of Turkey's future. Ozal — who we as Americans are proud to call a close friend — sought tirelessly to advance Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's legacy, his dream of a modern, democratic Turkey anchored in the West....
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

5639. The Three-Way Game: Iran, Iraq, and the United States

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The July 16–18 visit to Tehran by Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim Jafari and ten other members of his council of ministers has been hailed by some as the beginning of a new era in Iran-Iraq relations. In fact, the pattern of near-term relations was set during Iraqi defense minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi's preparatory visit to Iran on July 5–7. At a joint press conference on July 7 with his Iranian counterpart, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the Iraqi official fell victim to the oldest trick in the Iranian diplomatic playbook. Speaking well beyond what had been agreed by the two sides, Shamkhani announced “wide defense cooperation” and alluded to the imminent conclusion of a defense pact between the two countries (as Iran has done in the past with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia). Al-Dulaimi was likewise forced to clarify the limited nature of the discussions while also taking pains to state, “Iraq will not be a source of insecurity and instability for any of its neighbors. Nobody can use [Iraqi territory] to attack its neighbors.” The message to both Tehran and Washington was clear: the three-way game between the governments of Iran, Iraq, and the United States has begun again. With Iraq caught in the middle, Baghdad intends to play an increasingly autonomous role as the game unfolds.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

5640. After the London Bombings: Meeting the Challenge of Young Muslims and Extremism

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although the U.S. and British governments have offered gestures of mutual diplomatic support and apparent political agreement in the aftermath of the July 7 terrorist bombings in London, such efforts mask the wide differences between their approaches to the increasing threat of al-Qaeda terrorism. On July 15, President George W. Bush, speaking in North Carolina about the bombings, stated, “The killers . . . did not care about their religion. . . . These people will not be stopped by negotiations. . . . There is only one course of action. We will take the fight to the enemy, and we will stay in this fight until this enemy is defeated.” The next day, Prime Minister Tony Blair, stated, “The greatest danger is that we fail to face up to the nature of the threat we are dealing with. . . . [N]o sane person would negotiate. . . . It cannot be beaten except by confronting it, symptoms and causes, head-on. Without compromise and without delusion.” The similarity in language was probably intentional. Yet, Washington's apparent preference for military force contrasts with Blair's categorization of Britain's strategy: “In the end, it is the power of argument, debate, true religious faith, and true legitimate politics that will defeat this threat.”
Topic:
Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Washington, and London