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1891. Turkey and the Bomb

Author:
Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Though most states that want a nuclear weapon can get one through determined effort, the fact remains that most choose not to proliferate. Turkey is no exception. Not even the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is likely to push Ankara to develop its own nuclear weapons. The only circumstance where such a scenario would acquire a degree of likelihood is a breakdown in Turkey's security relationship with the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, and Middle East

1892. Dallying with Reform in a Divided Jordan

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Something is brewing in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. It is not so much that protests have been spreading since 2011; the country has experienced these before and so far they remain relatively small. It is, rather, who is behind them and from where dissatisfaction stems. East Bankers – Jordanians who inhabited the area before the arrival of the first Palestinian refugees in 1948 – have long formed the pillar of support for a regime that played on their fears concerning the Palestinian-origin majority. That pillar is showing cracks. The authorities retain several assets: popular anxiety about instability; U.S. and Gulf Arab political and material support; and persistent intercommunal divisions within the opposition. But in a fast-changing region, they would be reckless to assume they can avoid both far-reaching change and turmoil. Ultimately, they must either undertake the former one or experience the latter.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Democratization, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Jordan

1893. Abrajano, Marisa A. and Michael R. Alvarez, New Faces, New Voices: The Hispanic Electorate in America (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010).

Author:
Ksenia Krauer-Pacheco
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Central European University Political Science Journal
Institution:
Central European University
Abstract:
In recent years, politicians and researchers in the United States have become more aware of the importance of the Hispanic electorate because of the ever increasing Latino population. This, in turn, has spurred a growing interest in its political behavior and preferences. In this context, Marisa A. Abrajano and R. Michael Alvarez's most recent book represents a good analysis of the largest minority group in the United States. New faces, new voices: the Hispanic electorate in America resulted from a research project aimed at understanding the political behavior of Hispanics in the United States since the late 1990s. Two main goals were successfully achieved in the pages of the book: firstly, to demonstrate why the Hispanic electorate is such a diverse and complex group, particularly when compared to other ethnic and racial minority groups in the United States; and secondly, to dispel some of the pieces of conventional wisdom about the Hispanic electorate, many of which have affected the way in which campaigns, elected officials, the media, and even the average American voter, perceive this group.
Topic:
Political Violence
Political Geography:
United States and America

1894. Smart muddling through: rethinking UK national strategy beyond Afghanistan

Author:
Paul Cornish and Andrew Doorman
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
When the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition was formed in May 2010 it was confronted with a Ministry of Defence (MoD) in crisis, with armed forces committed to intensive combat operations in Afghanistan and with an unenviable financial situation. Yet within five months the coalition government had published a new National Security Strategy (NSS—the third in three years), a new Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) and a spending review. Among the United Kingdom's allies, France and Australia had prepared their defence white papers of 2008 and 2009 respectively in the context of a more benign global economic environment, while the United States used its national security policy of 2010 to provide a strategic overview without setting out in much detail what it would require of the relevant departments. The UK was effectively, therefore, the first western state to undertake a complete defence and security review in the 'age of austerity'. To add to the challenge, the coalition recognized that there were also problems within its own machinery of government, and came up with some novel solutions. In a radical step, it decided that national security would henceforth be overseen by a new National Security Council (NSC) chaired by the Prime Minister. A National Security Advisor—a new appointment in UK government—would lead Cabinet Office support to the NSC and the review process. The novelty of these arrangements raised questions about whether a more established system might be required to manage such a major review of UK national security. Nevertheless, the strategy review proceeded apace.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, United Kingdom, and Australia

1895. Military doctrine, command philosophy and the generation of fighting power: genesis and theory

Author:
Geoffrey Sloan
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
It was the British maritime strategist Sir Julian Corbett who, on the eve of the First World War, described doctrine as 'the soul of warfare'. This assertion conceals as much as it reveals, leaving out any explanation of how doctrine is formulated, disseminated or used, and any account of the relationship between doctrine and command philosophy. It is only through a synthesis of these two factors that fighting power can be generated. Doctrine can be described as a force multiplier in that a fighting organization that applies it consistently will be able to take on a larger force in battle and win. It is often analysed and evaluated in isolation from command philosophy. How, then, do we define doctrine and what are the major variants of command philosophy? What is the nature of the relationship between doctrine and command philosophy? Is it possible to identify and assess the component parts of doctrine, and to understand how they manifest themselves at the tactical, operational and strategic levels of war?
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
United States

1896. British civil–military relations and the problem of risk

Author:
Timothy Edmunds
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The theme of risk pervades the western security discourse at the beginning of the 2010s. The United Kingdom's 2010 National Security Strategy (NSS) employs the term 'risk' no fewer than 545 times, while its 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) mentions the word 96 times. The United States' 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) uses the words 'risk' or 'risks' 95 times over the course of its analysis. Risk is an explicit theme in the Australian Defence White Paper of 2009, Germany's Defence Policy Guidelines of 2011, The French White Paper on Defence and National Security of 2008 and the Spanish Security Strategy of 2011. It is also implicit in almost all other western security documentation since 2001 in one way or another.
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia

1897. NATO's 2012 Chicago summit: a chance to ignore the issues once again?

Author:
Andrew M. Dorman
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The NATO organization and its members are beginning to gear themselves up for the forthcoming summit in Chicago in May 2012. Such summits are always important, especially when they are held in the United States. For example, the 1999 Washington summit held to mark the alliance's 50th anniversary occurred against the background of an apparently failing war in Kosovo and a US President fearing impeachment as a result of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Moreover, this summit is happening in a US presidential election year and in a location particularly symbolic for the current incumbent President Obama. It will also follow on from the French presidential elections, thus presenting the first opportunity for either the new French president or a re-elected Nicolas Sarkozy to make a mark on the international scene.
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Chicago

1898. Towards a 'post-American' alliance? NATO burden-sharing after Libya

Author:
Ellen Hallams and Benjamin Schreer
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
On 31 October 2011 NATO successfully ended its seven-month military mission in Libya (Operation Unified Protector). Coalition air strikes were instrumental in protecting civilians and ousting the Qadhafi regime. In terms of alliance politics, the operation also seemed to reflect a new transatlantic burden-sharing model. The United States, the most powerful military actor within NATO, decided to play only a supporting role, forcing some European allies, predominantly France and Britain, to take the lead. Consequently, some commentators saw the Libya campaign as a 'historical milestone' for the Atlantic alliance and a potential model for future NATO burden-sharing. The US government seemed to share this view. In a speech in Brussels in October 2011, acting Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta described the Libya operation as an example of a more equal transatlantic burden-sharing arrangement. He also emphasized that the current level of US commitment to the alliance was unsustainable owing to the significant pressure on the US defence budget. In June that year his predecessor as Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, had also called for better burden-sharing across the Atlantic. Specifically, he criticized the lack of defence spending on the part of most European allies and predicted a 'dim, if not dismal, future' for the alliance if this trend is not reversed. NATO's Secretary General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has also called for members of the alliance to make renewed efforts to come to a better burden- sharing arrangement whereby European allies invest more in 'smart defense', with its emphasis on the pooling and sharing of military resources.
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, France, and Libya

1899. Review Article: American civil–military relations today: the continuing relevance of Samuel P Huntington's 'The soldier and the state'

Author:
Suzanne C. Nielsen
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Fifty-five years after it was first published, Samuel P. Huntington's The soldier and the state remains an essential starting point for serious discussions of American civil–military relations. This is remarkable for two reasons. First, the United States has seen enormous changes in its strategic environment in the past six decades. The country has gone from fearing for its survival during the Cold War to enjoying a concentration of military and economic power arguably unprecedented in human history. Second, the field of civil–military relations has been an active area of research in which political scientists, military sociologists and historians have made important and valuable contributions. However, even as these scholars have critiqued and built upon Huntington's work, they have not transcended it. To this day, a course in civil–military relations would be incomplete if The soldier and the state did not appear on the syllabus. It needs to be there not just to enable students to see how the field of civil–military relations has moved on, but also to expose them to concepts that remain foundational.
Political Geography:
United States and America

1900. Making Sense of an Unstable Legislature: Committee Assignments in the Argentine Chamber of Deputies, 1946 – 2001

Author:
Silvina Danesi and Ludovic Rheault
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Latin American legislatures have gone largely unstudied, with the functioning of the Argentine Chamber of Deputies prior to the 1980s being an entirely unexplored subject. This paper fills that gap by examining the organization of the Chamber, with particular focus on its standing committee system from 1946 to 2001. We assess the portability of two U.S.-based theoretical approaches to legislative organization by applying them to committee assignments. An original data set of Argentine deputies was constructed and a way of measuring political power in committees was devised for this study. Despite weak democratic governments, military interventions, and changes to the electoral system, we find that ruling parties have consistently influenced the committee system, shaping its structure and securing an over-proportion of their deputies in key committee positions. These results support the applicability of the U.S. originated Cartel Theory of legislative organization to understanding and studying legislatures outside that country.
Political Geography:
United States, Argentina, and Latin America