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1681. Noda Marches on; Both Sides Distracted?

Author:
Michael J. Green and Nicholas Szechenyi
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Prime Minister Noda advanced a legislative package on tax and social security reform but faced stiff political headwinds in the form of a frustrated public and a jaded opposition steeling for an election. Japanese concerns over the safety of the MV-22 Osprey aircraft scheduled for deployment in Okinawa dominated the bilateral agenda – at least in the media – and tested the mettle of Japan's widely-respected new defense minister. The two governments agreed to continue consultations on Japan's interest in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) but political paralysis in Japan and presidential politics in the United States could complicate efforts to make progress in the near term. Two reports issued over the summer addressing US force posture strategy in the Asia-Pacific and the agenda for US-Japan alliance, respectively, focused on the future trajectory for the bilateral relationship.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States and Japan

1682. Grappling on a Hillside

Author:
David C. Kang and Jiun Bang
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Diplomatic disputes between Korea and Japan over historical issues and territory flared yet again this summer, being by far the most serious row since the mid - 2000s. With both sides focused far more on proving the others' misdeeds than on finding some stable equilibrium, the disputes threatened to spill over and affect economic relations as well as distract leaders from focusing on a number of pressing domestic and foreign issues. We try to avoid overreactions in this forum, hence the title. Korea - Japan relations are nowhere near falling off a cliff, but without stabilizing relations, there are potential deleterious bilateral and regional effects that could result from the current disputes. There were three underlying themes that characterized and reinforced the general lack of rapport: first, the reverberations from these bilateral disputes onto third parties (US, China, and North Korea); second, the domestic sources of foreign policy (known as the “ second - image ” in international relations theory); and third , deliberate moves toward negative issue - linkage in stymieing diplomatic relations in the region.
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, North Korea, and Korea

1683. Rebooting the Alliance

Author:
Graeme Dobell
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Obama administration's military rebalancing to Asia helped reboot the US alliance with Australia. Indeed, the arrival of US Marines in northern Australia put real boots into the reboot. The announcement that the Marines were heading for Darwin was the centerpiece of President Barack Obama's visit to Australia in November. After the alliance intimacy achieved by two conservative leaders – George W. Bush and John Howard – it seemed unlikely that a Democrat president and a Labor prime minister could tighten the alliance bonds further. Obama and Gillard managed it, proving again the special status of the alliance for both sides of Australian politics. The Marine deployment became an important element in the broader debate in Australia about the emerging power system in Asia and the terms of Australia's future relationship with its number one economic partner, China. Even in trade, Australia now faces different US and Chinese visions of the institutional framework for Asia's future.
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Australia

1684. Echoes of a Forgotten Past: Mid-Century Realism and the Legacy of International Law

Author:
Oliver Jütersonke
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Carnegie Council
Abstract:
Those studying the work of Hans J. Morgenthau, widely considered the “founding father” of the Realist School of International Relations, have long been baffled by his views on world government and the attainment of a world state—views that, it would appear, are strikingly incompatible with the author's realism. In a 1965 article in World Politics, James P. Speer II decided that it could only be “theoretical confusion” that explained why Morgenthau could on the one hand advocate a world state as ultimately necessary in his highly successful textbook, Politics Among Nations, while writing elsewhere that world government could not resolve the conflict between the Soviet Union and the United States by peaceful means. According to Spee Morgenthau posits at the international level a super-Hobbesian predicament, in which the actors on the world scene are motivated by the lust for power, yet he proposes a gradualist Lockean solution whereby the international system will move, through a resurrected diplomacy, out of a precarious equilibrium of balance-of-power anarchy by a “revaluation of all values” into the “moral and political” bonds of world community, a process whose capstone will be the formal-legal institutions of world government.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States and Soviet Union

1685. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Carnegie Council
Abstract:
The authors of Why Civil Resistance Works present empirical evidence that, contrary to conventional wisdom, nonviolent resistance campaigns succeed at overthrowing regimes twice as often as violent campaigns, even in cases of a highly repressive state. Erica Chenoweth, an assistant professor of government at Wesleyan University, and Maria Stephan, a strategic planner with the U.S. Department of State, raise an original question and then employ quantitative and qualitative methods to reach their surprising findings. Unlike previous studies that focus solely on either violent or nonviolent campaigns, this book asks which type of campaigns are more successful at overthrowing regimes, ousting occupations, or facilitating secessions. The authors analyze 326 violent and nonviolent campaigns between 1900 and 2006 , and they offer more in-depth study of the Iranian Revolution ( 1977 – 1979 ), the First Palestinian Intifada (1987 – 1992 ), the Philippine People ' s Power Movement ( 1983 – 1986 ), and the Burmese Uprising ( 1988 – 1990 ) — providing a range of scenarios where violent and nonviolent campaigns succeeded, partially succeeded, or failed. The authors de fi ne a successful campaign as one that discernibly results in the achievement of its own stated goals of regime change, anti-occupation, or secession within a year of peak activities.
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

1686. Pragmatism or what? The future of US foreign policy

Author:
David Milne
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The 2012 US presidential election inverts the relative strengths and weaknesses of the candidates in 2008: Barack Obama is now tough and experienced, Mitt Romney a diplomatic neophyte. One of John McCain's more memorable assertions in 2008 was that he would 'follow Osama Bin Laden to the gates of hell'. Obama's actions have spoken louder than McCain's hyperbole. On 2 May 2011, the President sanctioned a navy SEAL raid that killed Bin Laden in Pakistan. The boldness of this decision—in declining to inform Pakistan of US intentions and in using ground forces instead of launching an air strike—has largely armoured Obama against Republican attacks on his alleged lack of fortitude. So where can Romney land meaningful blows now?
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

1687. Bush, Obama and a faith-based US foreign policy

Author:
Lee Marsden
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
US foreign policy in the first decade of the twenty-first century has been dominated by religion in a way that would not have seemed possible for most of the second half of the twentieth. Al-Qaeda's attack on the United States in September 2001, the subsequent US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the upsurge in Islamist militancy and the populist overthrow of despotic US allies in the Middle East all focus attention on the importance of religious actors. For much of this period academic interest has centred on radical Islam and the attempts by western governments, and the United States in particular, to contain Islamism through embarking on the global 'war on terror' in its various manifestations, and supporting pro-western despots in the Middle East. While there has also been much interest in the emergence of elements of the Christian right as foreign policy actors, until recently insufficient attention has been paid to the increasing role played by religious organizations in the delivery of US foreign policy objectives. American faith-based International Relations (IR) scholars and political scientists have successfully agitated for an increased religious dimension to foreign policy, in particular in the areas of diplomacy and overseas assistance and development. While such an emphasis is designed to further US foreign policy interests, this article argues that such a policy can be counter productive where these religious actors pursue sectarian rather than secular objectives. Using faith-based initiatives supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) as a case-study, the article highlights the potential dangers of faith-based foreign policy approaches.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1688. Over-promising and under-delivering? Ambitions and risks in US defence strategy

Author:
Travis Sharp
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The United States has entered a period of strategic change. After spending more than a decade fighting a global counterterrorism campaign and two ground wars, it now faces shifting security challenges. The United States has killed Osama bin Laden and decimated the core leadership of Al-Qaeda and like-minded groups in Pakistan, but regional Al-Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and the Horn of Africa have taken the lead in planning and attempting terrorist attacks. American troops have left Iraq and are leaving Afghanistan, but 15,000–30,000 may remain in Afghanistan after 2014 to train Afghan forces and strike terrorist cells. Iran continues to pursue the ability to produce nuclear weapons rapidly should its supreme leader decide to do so, further destabilizing a Middle East region shaken by the Arab Spring. China continues to invest heavily in military modernization, raising sharp concerns among its neighbours. North Korea may continue to lash out militarily as its new leader Kim Jong Un seeks to demonstrate control. Last but certainly not least, the global economy remains fragile, the American economic recovery has stagnated, and US policy-makers have responded to rapidly growing American debt by reducing government spending in numerous areas, including defence. The size of these budget cuts may increase substantially in the months ahead.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, China, Iraq, Middle East, North Korea, and Yemen

1689. Justifying sacrifice: Barack Obama and the selling and ending of the war in Afghanistan

Author:
Trevor Mccrisken
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Just a month after entering office, US President Barack Obama spoke at the US Marine Corps base at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina. His remarks focused on his plans to 'responsibly' end the war in Iraq and to deepen the commitment of the United States to the fight against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. One of the key motifs that Obama used in his speech was that of 'sacrifice'—the need for all Americans to continue the age-old tradition of paying a price for the freedoms they enjoy. As he told the audience of US Marines: 'The consequences of war are dire, the sacrifices immeasurable. You know because you have seen those sacrifices. You have lived them. And we all honor them.' He then characterized this notion of sacrifice for one's country as being part of a long tradition that was responsible for the very existence of the United States and an essential guarantor of its domestic freedom:
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Taliban, and North Carolina

1690. The United States in Asia: Reflections on Deterrence, Alliances, and the 'Balance' of Power

Author:
Evelyn Goh
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
As the focus of U.S. military attention shifts away from the Middle East and Central Asia, Washington's geopolitical weathervane appears now to point firmly towards East Asia. Given the Obama administration's recent high-profile political 'pivot back' to the region, and against the context of the upcoming Presidential campaign, the two books under review here shed helpful light on American concerns and raise urgent questions about U.S. strategy in Asia. In the noisy cottage industry of strident publications about the rise of China and the future of U.S. power, these books stand out for their considered arguments and scholarly research. Both authors are professors at Princeton, and both served in the George W. Bush administration – Aaron Friedberg as deputy assistant for National Security Affairs in the Office of the Vice President Dick Cheney in 2003 – 5, and Thomas Christensen as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in 2006 – 8.
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Asia