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491. Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper provides an introduction to forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modeling. Forecast uncertainty is defined, various measures of forecast uncertainty are examined, and some sources and consequences of forecast uncertainty are analyzed. Empirical illustrations with the U.S. trade balance, U.K. inflation and real national income, and the U.S./U.K. exchange rate help clarify the issues involved.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

492. United Kingdom — Mandelson Departure

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, resigned in acrimonious circumstances last week. Mandelson was a key figure in the reconstruction of the Labour Party in the 1990s and the most prominent partisan of early euro entry in the UK cabinet. While Mandelson's departure will be felt within the Labour Party and comes at a critical time in the Northern Ireland peace process, the most substantial impact is likely to be on the internal debate within the cabinet over euro-area entry, with the consequence of a diminishing likelihood of an early referendum on the issue.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and North Ireland

493. Decentralized Cooperation and the Future of Regulatory Reform

Author:
Pepper D. Culpepper
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Faced with the fact of sweeping regulatory reform, how do companies decide how to respond to a new set of policies? This paper argues that this problem requires a new conception of policymaking: a conception that recognizes the analytical primacy of achieving coordination under uncertainty. I call this challenge the problem of securing decentralized cooperation. Negotiated reforms are a common leitmotif of the current wave of reforms taking place in various European countries, whereas American attempts to reinvent government opt to replace the state with the market. There are general lessons in this approach for both strategies. Unlike the earlier attempts to establish neo-corporatist bargains at the national level in European countries, the success of bargained pacts in Europe will depend increasingly on allowing private actors to design the best solutions to centrally identified problems. The challenges of bringing private information to bear on public policy will increase in the future, and not only in supply-side economic policy reforms. One such area is environmental regulation, which is typically viewed as an area of pure state regulation. This is also an area where market-based solutions are frequently proposed as the most efficient solution to problems of pollution. As I demonstrate through the initiative of the Chesapeake Bay Program in the United States, the challenges identified above for areas of economic policymaking are now relevant to environmental initiatives, even in liberal market economies such as the US and the UK. The extent of government success in such initiatives will be determined by the ability of governments to understand the importance of private information and their capacity to develop private sector institutions that can help procure it. Attempts to replace a malfunctioning state with a market solution, currently very much in vogue in certain quarters in the United States, will fail, as long as they do not recognize the distinctive problems inherent in securing decentralized cooperation.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

494. A Recruiting Tape of Osama bin Laden: Excerpts and Analyses

Author:
Richard W. Bulliet and Fawaz A. Gerges
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
For several months prior to the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, a videotape calling Muslims to a holy war against forces described as Crusaders and Jews circulated underground in the Arab world. Produced on behalf of Osama bin Laden and prominently featuring his image, words, and ideas, the tape is designed to recruit young Arab men to journey to Afghanistan and train for a war in defense of Islam.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, International Cooperation, International Law, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Arabia

495. 'Re-Energizing' UN Sanctions on Iraq: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, the United States and United Kingdom are circulating a draft resolution in the UN Security Council proposing a package of new measures intended to "re-energize" sanctions against Iraq. They hope to bring the resolution to a vote before the next six-month phase of the "oil for food" program begins on June 4. This revamped sanctions regime will lift restrictions on civilian trade, while retaining both international control over Iraq's oil income through the UN escrow account, and a ban on the import of arms and dual-use items critical to the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Arab Countries

496. Consumer Credit in the European Union

Author:
Nuria Diez Guardia
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This report analyses the European consumer credit markets and their regulation at European level. Its findings are as follows: European consumer credit markets are characterised by deep national differences and strong market segmentation. The report finds no generalised model of consumer credit from the analysis of statistical data. An Anglo-Saxon consumer credit model cannot be identified. The weight of consumer credit is far higher in the US economy than in the EU countries, including the UK. In the US, the share of consumer loans made by banks is much lower, securitisation of consumer credit assets is very developed and the share of revolving credit is much greater than in the EU countries. Nor is it possible, on account of the large differences in the use of consumer credit observed across EU countries, to identify a European model of consumer credit. Consumer credit is very widely used in Sweden, whereas it is underdeveloped in Greece and Italy. The use of consumer credit reaches comparatively high levels in Germany and the UK and an intermediate level in France and Spain. Lending to consumers is carried out through bank intermediation, crossborder provision is non-existent.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

497. Euro Spectator 2000 - Italy

Author:
Silvia Nenci and Marina Mancini
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
According to the “Eurobarometer” survey (Eurobarometer No 54), conducted in November and December 2000 among more than 16,000 citizens of the European Union, 55% (-3% in comparison with spring 2000) of Europeans support the single currency, whilst 37% do not. The Member States in which support is strongest are Italy (79%), Luxembourg (75%), Belgium (72%), Greece (70%), Ireland (69%), Spain (68%) and the Netherlands (64%). The majority of public opinion is against the Euro in Sweden (26%), the United Kingdom (21%), Denmark (41%) and Finland (45%). Looking at Italy, results show that 79% of citizens are in favour of the Euro (-2% in comparison with previous six months), 17% are against it (+ 3%) and the remaining 4% are indifferent.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Finland, Greece, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, and Luxembourg

498. State Strength and the European Union: Examining the Impact of Unification on Europe's Major Powers

Author:
Timothy Ponce
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The continued drive to unify Europe holds numerous implications for the measurement of state strength. The emergence of the European Union as a powerful player in the post-Cold War international system still remains to be seen. This article examines the complications for state strength brought about by European unification. Particularly, I examine the impact of unification on state strength for the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy from 1960 to the current period. Although potentially construed as part of the pains and process of unification, this paper argues that European unification does not seriously erode the strength of these states. My results indicate that these more powerful states are influenced negatively by the processes of globalization but not regional integration.
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, and Italy

499. New Answers To Old Questions: Explaining The Slow Adoption Of Ring Spinning In Lancashire, 1880-1913

Author:
Timothy Leunig
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This paper re-examines theories previously advanced to explain Lancashire's slow adoption of ring spinning. New cost estimates show that although additional transport costs and technical complementarities between certain types of machine reduced ring adoption rates, these supply side constraints were not dominant. Instead what mattered most were demand side factors. Lancashire produced far more fine yarns than other countries and that yarn was better spun on mules. Furthermore, Lancashire had a sizeable export yarn trade, a market again more suited to mule spinning. Low ring adoption rates were a positive response to demand patterns dominated by high quality goods.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

500. Distribution Dynamics: Stratification, Polarization and Convergence Among OECD Economies, 1870-1992

Author:
Philip Epstein
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Since the 1980s the debate about economic convergence has dominated empirical work about the dynamics of growth. Economic historians have been attracted, in particular, by stories of club convergence. However, the analytical foundations of most of the work in this area have rested on linear, or more usually log-linear, regression analysis. Thus, the results tend to be dependent on a conditional average in which time is the dominant player. This is surprising as space, and issues of distribution, have long been important to both theorists and historians. A notable exception to the 'regression school' has been the work on distribution dynamics pioneered in a series of papers by Danny Quah (1993, 1996, 1997). He believes that only by considering the issues of growth and distribution simultaneously can we understand their underlying dynamics. He has argued, for example, that there is no simple causal relationship between the concepts of β-convergence and σ- convergence and that similar stories of global (or club) convergence may be driven by very different stories of individual economy mobility. This is an approach that should appeal to economic historians (both because it can encompass a rich diversity of individual economy experience and because it emphasises that same diversity). We hope to illustrate this by considering the experience of some of the leading OECD economies since 1870 within an explicit distribution dynamics framework.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom