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81. A Global Lottery and a Global Premium Bond

Author:
Tony Addison and Abdur R. Chowdhury
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The world lottery market now amounts to at least US$126 billion in sales. World market sales for all gaming products (public, charitable and commercial) total some US$1 trillion, of which Internet gambling accounts for US$32 billion. This paper assesses the prospects for harnessing this large and growing market for the purposes of development finance by means of a global lottery and a global premium bond (with the successful UK scheme providing a model for the latter). Each has different strengths: the global lottery can add to the supply of grant finance for development, while the global premium bond could be an attractive savings instrument for ethical investors. The paper concludes that global versions of both a lottery and a premium bond are viable and complementary in mobilizing more development finance.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

82. Outsourcing and Inequality

Author:
Paul Brenton, Bob Anderton, and Eva Oscarsson
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper brings together and analyses the results of empirical analyses which, in contrast to most other studies, find that trade has been a significant cause of labour market inequality in various industrialised countries. The approach is based upon the concept of outsourcing – whereby the low-skill parts of the production chain are 'outsourced' to low-wage countries. A distinguishing feature of the empirical work is the use of highly detailed trade data, which allow imports from high- and low-wage countries to be separately identified at the industry level. Using cost minimisation framework, we show that imports from low-wage countries have made a significant contribution to the decline in the wage-bill share and/or relative employment of less-skilled workers in the UK, the USA, Sweden and Italy. We also show how the country-specific characteristics of outsourcing can lead to quite different inequality outcomes in different countries. In line with other studies, we also find that technology has played an important role in causing the increase in inequality in many countries. However, there is also some evidence that some of the rapid increase in the application of new technologies in recent decades has been trade-induced through mechanisms such as 'defensive innovation'.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

83. Equity Prices, Household Wealth, and Consumption Growth in Foreign Industrial Countries: Wealth Effects in the 1990s

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Although most recent empirical research regarding the size and significance of the impact of changes in wealth on consumption has looked for such effects in the United States, equity prices in the 1990s rose considerably in most other industrial countries as well. This paper investigates the strength of the wealth effect across countries. Using a variety of methods, I find evidence of significant wealth effects in the United Kingdom and Canada of a size comparable to that in the United States, reflecting the importance of equities in aggregate household wealth in these countries. A significant wealth effect is also evident in Japan, but because household wealth has changed little on balance in Japan in recent years, this channel has been less important in explaining Japanese consumption growth in the second half of the 1990s. Despite a rapid appreciation in equity prices and an increase in equity ownership in the major continental European countries since 1995, equities remain a less important form of household wealth in most of these countries, and the consumption response to changes in wealth remains limited. However, in some smaller European countries where equity issuance is more common, the emerging evidence suggests that wealth effects may be more important.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Canada

84. Non-Financial Corporate Risk Management and Exchange Rate Volatility in Latin America

Author:
Graciela Moguillansky
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This article studies the currency risk management of multinational companies with investments in Latin American countries. The analysis is centred on episodes of currency or financial shocks, searching into the behaviour of the financial management of a firm expecting a significant devaluation. This allowed us to explore the interaction and transmission mechanisms between the microeconomic behaviour and the macroeconomic impact on the foreign exchange market. The analysis was carried out interviewing financial managers of multinational companies from different sectors with headquarters in the United Kingdom and Spain, by reviewing literature on business and currency risk management, and by analysing some surveys on financial risk management in developed countries.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, South America, Latin America, and Spain

85. The Year of Enlargement

Author:
Simon Serfaty and Christina V. Balis
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Preparations for EU enlargement, combined with more of the unfolding debate on the constitutional future of Europe, will dominate Europe's institutional agenda in 2002. The three Baltic countries and all four countries in central Europe, plus Slovenia, Malta, and Cyprus should be able to conclude their bilateral access negotiations by December 2002, and even, in a few cases, on time for the European Council of June 21–22, in Seville, Spain. Expect, therefore, the enlargement of the EU to 25 members—one that might start as early as January 2004 and end, possibly, no later than June 30, 2007. What follows is a 17-step primer on the process and pattern, the various timetables, and the possible outcomes of an enlargement that will begin to emerge, at last, in 2002.
Topic:
NATO, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and France

86. Measuring Unemployment Benefit Recipiency in New Zealand

Author:
Wayne Vroman
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
This is a paper about measurement. It originated within a project that is examining the performance of unemployment compensation (UC) programs from a cross-national perspective. At the current time the larger project has assembled data on the UC programs of more than 20 countries along with supporting labor market data. Within the set of OECD countries, the project has singled out for particular attention six English speaking countries: Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. An analysis of the unemployment protection systems in these six countries was recently completed by Brusentsev (2002).
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Ireland, and New Zealand

87. Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper provides an introduction to forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modeling. Forecast uncertainty is defined, various measures of forecast uncertainty are examined, and some sources and consequences of forecast uncertainty are analyzed. Empirical illustrations with the U.S. trade balance, U.K. inflation and real national income, and the U.S./U.K. exchange rate help clarify the issues involved.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

88. Decentralized Cooperation and the Future of Regulatory Reform

Author:
Pepper D. Culpepper
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Faced with the fact of sweeping regulatory reform, how do companies decide how to respond to a new set of policies? This paper argues that this problem requires a new conception of policymaking: a conception that recognizes the analytical primacy of achieving coordination under uncertainty. I call this challenge the problem of securing decentralized cooperation. Negotiated reforms are a common leitmotif of the current wave of reforms taking place in various European countries, whereas American attempts to reinvent government opt to replace the state with the market. There are general lessons in this approach for both strategies. Unlike the earlier attempts to establish neo-corporatist bargains at the national level in European countries, the success of bargained pacts in Europe will depend increasingly on allowing private actors to design the best solutions to centrally identified problems. The challenges of bringing private information to bear on public policy will increase in the future, and not only in supply-side economic policy reforms. One such area is environmental regulation, which is typically viewed as an area of pure state regulation. This is also an area where market-based solutions are frequently proposed as the most efficient solution to problems of pollution. As I demonstrate through the initiative of the Chesapeake Bay Program in the United States, the challenges identified above for areas of economic policymaking are now relevant to environmental initiatives, even in liberal market economies such as the US and the UK. The extent of government success in such initiatives will be determined by the ability of governments to understand the importance of private information and their capacity to develop private sector institutions that can help procure it. Attempts to replace a malfunctioning state with a market solution, currently very much in vogue in certain quarters in the United States, will fail, as long as they do not recognize the distinctive problems inherent in securing decentralized cooperation.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

89. Consumer Credit in the European Union

Author:
Nuria Diez Guardia
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This report analyses the European consumer credit markets and their regulation at European level. Its findings are as follows: European consumer credit markets are characterised by deep national differences and strong market segmentation. The report finds no generalised model of consumer credit from the analysis of statistical data. An Anglo-Saxon consumer credit model cannot be identified. The weight of consumer credit is far higher in the US economy than in the EU countries, including the UK. In the US, the share of consumer loans made by banks is much lower, securitisation of consumer credit assets is very developed and the share of revolving credit is much greater than in the EU countries. Nor is it possible, on account of the large differences in the use of consumer credit observed across EU countries, to identify a European model of consumer credit. Consumer credit is very widely used in Sweden, whereas it is underdeveloped in Greece and Italy. The use of consumer credit reaches comparatively high levels in Germany and the UK and an intermediate level in France and Spain. Lending to consumers is carried out through bank intermediation, crossborder provision is non-existent.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

90. Euro Spectator 2000 - Italy

Author:
Silvia Nenci and Marina Mancini
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
According to the “Eurobarometer” survey (Eurobarometer No 54), conducted in November and December 2000 among more than 16,000 citizens of the European Union, 55% (-3% in comparison with spring 2000) of Europeans support the single currency, whilst 37% do not. The Member States in which support is strongest are Italy (79%), Luxembourg (75%), Belgium (72%), Greece (70%), Ireland (69%), Spain (68%) and the Netherlands (64%). The majority of public opinion is against the Euro in Sweden (26%), the United Kingdom (21%), Denmark (41%) and Finland (45%). Looking at Italy, results show that 79% of citizens are in favour of the Euro (-2% in comparison with previous six months), 17% are against it (+ 3%) and the remaining 4% are indifferent.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Finland, Greece, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, and Luxembourg