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251. The Neighbourhood Policy is Dead. What's Next for European Foreign Policy Along its Arc of Instability?

Author:
Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Arab uprisings alongside the Ukrainian crisis have triggered the perfect storm. The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), developed at the height of enlargement EUphoria, is in tatters. To be fair, its failure is only partly endogenous, and largely due to the dramatic transformation of the neighbourhood – east and south – which no one could have foreseen at the turn of the century. Be that as it may, the EU will have to fundamentally rethink its approach towards its turbulent backyard. To move forward, the EU needs to devise conceptually different approaches to the east and south. In both cases, instability and crises abound. In both, the magnitude of the challenges that the EU faces is so great that down-to-earth realism must be its guiding light. Formulating and pursuing down-to-earth objectives for the neighbourhood that reflect current realities is not cynical. It is responsible.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Arabia

252. NATO's Posture after the Wales Summit

Author:
Guillaume Lasconjarias
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The recent NATO Summit in Wales has been viewed as a watershed event not just because of the particular moment at which it took place, but because of the pledges taken by heads of states and governments. For sure, the still ongoing Ukraine crisis and the rising insurgency in Syria-Iraq might have acted as true “wake-up calls”, calling the Alliance to step up its posture and show its determination, especially in terms of commitments towards bolstering the main pillars of the Alliance. The initiatives announced in terms of readiness and defence posture, the Readiness Action Plan in particular, belong to a series of reassurance measures towards Eastern allies, but also revitalize the NATO Response Force through an expeditionary spearhead, the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force. Although some might consider these measures as “too little too late”, they prove the Alliance's cohesion and the commitment to the transatlantic link.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and International Security
Political Geography:
Iraq, Ukraine, and Syria

253. Why Europe must stop outsourcing its security

Author:
Richard Gowan and Nick Witney
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The EU claims to be in the business of “crisis management” – ready if need be to make “robust” military interventions to control conflict, especially in its neighbourhood. In practice, it now prefers to “outsource” such interventions to others, notably the United Nations and African Union (AU), limiting itself to supporting roles. This is not just shabby; it also saps Europe's influence in a world in which European interests and values are increasingly contested. And it places too great a burden on organisations such as the UN and AU. Unless the EU rediscovers a willingness to bear the costs and risks of military operations to control conflict, Europe can expect everintensifying refugee pressure on its southern borders. Although military force will not help in Ukraine or the turmoil of the Middle East, the EU could make a big difference if it were prepared to do more in crisis management in Africa. The EU could contribute to or complement UN or AU efforts in a variety of ways. Responding to the crisis in UN peacekeeping, Ban Kimoon has ordered a review. New EU High Representative Federica Mogherini should do the same, involving outside experts in a stock-take of international efforts to control conflict to Europe's south and commissioning specific proposals to get the EU back to playing a properly responsible security role.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East

254. The Die Is Cast: Confronting Russian Aggression in Eastern Europe

Author:
Christopher Musselman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Ukraine crisis demonstrates that European security can no longer be taken for granted and that NATO and the broader transatlantic community are struggling to address emerging security challenges. Whether Russia is classified revanchist, expanding its sphere of influence, or seeking to create regional hegemony, Putin's actions in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine are a stark reminder that the era of geopolitical competition in Europe is far from over. The transatlantic community must be ready to deal with similar challenges in the decades ahead.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

255. An Economic Strategy to Save Ukraine

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ukraine has experienced a year of unprecedented political, economic, and military turmoil. The combination of Russian military aggression in the east and a legacy of destructive policies leading to pervasive corruption has plunged the country into an existential crisis. The West, meanwhile, has been largely paralyzed with uncertainty over how to assist Ukraine without reviving Cold War hostilities. Yet all is not lost for Ukraine. A tenuous ceasefire, along with the successful elections of President Petro Poroshenko in May and a new parliament in October offer an opportunity for economic reform. If the current ceasefire in the east holds, Ukraine has a great opportunity to break out of its vicious circle of economic underperformance. Yet, the window of opportunity is likely to be brief. The new government will have to act fast and hard on many fronts to succeed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

256. After Ukraine: Keeping the Arctic Stable

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The greatest challenge to the stability of the Arctic actually comes from outside the region itself, but there are still strong reasons to be optimistic about security in the Arctic region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Climate Change, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Arctic

257. Russia's Hybrid Warfare -Waging War below the Radar of Traditional Collective Defence

Author:
Heidi Reisinger and Aleksandr Golts
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Ukraine is not even a state!” Putin reportedly advised former US President George W. Bush during the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest. In 2014 this perception became reality. Russian behaviour during the current Ukraine crisis was based on the traditional Russian idea of a “sphere of influence” and a special responsibility or, stated more bluntly, the “right to interfere” with countries in its “near abroad”. This perspective is also implied by the equally misleading term “post-Soviet space.” The successor states of the Soviet Union are sovereign countries that have developed differently and therefore no longer have much in common. Some of them are members of the European Union and NATO, while others are desperately trying to achieve this goal. Contrary to what Professor John Mearsheimer may suggest. In his article “Why the Ukraine crisis is the West's fault” he argues that NATO has expanded too far to the East, “into Russia's backyard”, against Moscow's declared will, and therefore carries responsibility for recent events; however, this seems to ignore that NATO was not hunting for new members, but found them knocking at its door.
Topic:
NATO and War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Ukraine, Soviet Union, and Moscow

258. Europe's changing security landscape: What role will the EU play in security and defence?

Author:
Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Ukraine crisis has reminded Europeans of the importance of defence policy, thus amplifying the main message of the December 2013 European Council on security and defence. Many of the proposals put forward by the December summit are currently being worked on, but the Ukraine crisis creates additional challenges for the EU, highlighting the strategic divergence within the Union and posing fundamental questions about its role as a security provider. Regarding concrete achievements, the EU's defence ministers recently adopted a policy framework for systematic and long-term defence cooperation, and the Commission has also begun to work energetically towards achieving its key objectives in the defence sector. Ultimately, however, the success of the EU's efforts will depend on the commitment of the member states.
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

259. NATO, Russia and European Security: Lessons Learned from Conflicts in Kosovo and Libya

Author:
Philip Spassov
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The essay analyses the role of NATO in the post-Cold War period by conduct- ing a comparison of the cases of NATO’s operations in Kosovo and Libya. The article re- veals the enhanced weight of the Alliance member states and the European countries’ ac- tive role in protecting their regional interests and also show how the state interests of the USA and Russia played a significant role in the two cases. This analysis of the behavioral patterns of the former Cold War adversaries could provide a useful interpretation and per- haps an explanation of the current events in Ukraine. The pursuit of power continues to dominate the international relations arena as the confrontation between the USA and Rus- sia is far from over.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, Libya, Kosovo, and North America

260. Tableau de bord des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale et d’Eurasie 2014 (Volume 2 : Eurasie)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé, Anne De Tinguy, Jacques Sapir, Julien Vercueil, Vitaly Denysyuk, Raphaël Jozan, David Teurtrie, and Faruk Ülgen
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Le lecteur ne s’étonnera pas de ce que, en 2014, le conflit en Ukraine soit au cœur des préoccupations des pays d'Europe centrale, orientale et de l'Eurasie, même si ses incidences sont diversement ressenties selon les régions considérées. Les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale sont divisés dans leur appréhension politique des événements, et leurs économies ne sont pas directement concernées par les retombées du conflit en Ukraine. On pouvait craindre en revanche qu’elles subissent l’atonie de la zone euro, et son incapacité à retrouver des taux de croissance stimulant la demande extérieure. Cependant – et c’est là une heureuse surprise –, plusieurs d’entre elles ont trouvé la parade en tirant parti des fonds que l’Union européenne leur destine généreusement pour relancer leur demande domestique. Et les effets positifs de cette tactique portent des fruits spectaculaires, d’autant qu’elle se combine avec les incidences de la faible hausse des prix sur le pouvoir d’achat des consommateurs. Il y a là des enseignements à tirer pour la politique économique de l’Europe Occidentale ! Les pays de l’espace eurasiatique sont eux directement aux prises avec les développements du conflit ukrainien. Les incidences en sont multiples : les sanctions et contre-sanctions entre la Russie et l’Union européenne influent grandement sur les économies périphériques, de grands projets comme le gazoduc South Stream sont annulés, les relations des pays d’Asie centrale et du Caucase avec l’Union européenne sont observées avec vigilance par la Russie… La crise ukrainienne, c’est un fait, porte son ombre sur le grand projet de Vladimir Poutine d’instauration d’une Union économique eurasiatique.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Organization, Markets, Political Economy, War, Natural Resources, Finance, Regional Integration, Transnational Actors, and Emerging States
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Belarus