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321. Mapping Cyber-related Missile and Satellite Incidents and Confidence-building Measures

Author:
Lora Saalman, Larisa Saveleva Dovgal, and Fei Su
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Cyber incidents that—whether due to human error, system malfunction or intentional targeting—impact satellite and missile systems extend beyond the ongoing war in Ukraine. These systems are essential to civilian and military operations and disrupting them has the potential to elicit conventional or even nuclear retaliation. Due to the centrality of satellite and missile-related infrastructure, cyber incidents impacting the functionality of such infrastructure have served as a catalyst for previous confidence-building measures (CBMs) that may provide a template for future ones. This paper builds on SIPRI work to map cyber-related missile and satellite incidents, as well as unilateral, bilateral and multilateral CBMs to provide takeaways meant to foster greater predictability and stability in cyberspace.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Weapons, Cyberspace, Confidence Building Measures, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Global Focus

322. Another Budget for a Country at War: Military Expenditure in Russia’s Federal Budget for 2024 and Beyond

Author:
Julian Cooper
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has been waged for over 650 days and has had a significant impact on the country’s economy and society. In April 2023 work started on a new three-year federal budget, which was signed into law at the end of November. It is based on a relatively optimistic economic forecast and is striking for the sharp increase in military spending planned for 2024. Spending under the budget chapter ‘national defence’ is expected to account for 29 per cent of total budget expenditure. This means that total military expenditure will increase to 7.1 per cent of GDP in 2024. Military spending is not the same as spending on the war: there are additional costs, some shown in the new budget. The budget indicates that the Russian government is firmly committed to pursuing the war to a successful conclusion, accepting that this will put pressure on social and economic spending.
Topic:
Budget, Military Spending, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

323. Cognitive War in Ukraine

Author:
Adam Paweł Olechowski
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The article aims to identify social impact activities in the context of information operations conducted by Ukraine during the 2022 war. An analysis of the creation and spread of information threats as a result of Russia’s ongoing conflict is driven by the increasing impact of communication on global security. The content of the study highlights the impact of trends in the creation of information threats, which are the determinants of social risks. In the article, an analysis of creating information threats, including producing and reporting information in propaganda and the traditional and modern media, is of significant importance. The impact and role of mass media on awareness-raising is presented, revealing mechanisms for influencing public opinion.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Media, Disinformation, Russia-Ukraine War, and Social Impact Mechanisms
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

324. The Cyber Defense Assistance Imperative – Lessons from Ukraine

Author:
Aspen Digital
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a watershed moment, and unique in that a major nation-state had engaged in coordinated, convergent digital and physical attacks in an effort to conquer a neighboring country. Leaders will draw lessons from this conflict for years, but one is already clear: the ability to deliver cyber defense assistance must be a key national security capability. Informed by the ongoing work of a variety of organizations providing operational cyber support to Ukrainian institutions through the Cyber Defense Assistance Collaborative, this paper seeks to define cyber defense assistance, outline its primary component parts, and identify key lessons learned that can help inform how such assistance can be provided in future geopolitical conflicts. It also makes the case that an effective national security toolkit requires the ability to deliver cyber defense assistance to allies.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Cybersecurity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

325. Regional Reflections on the War on Ukraine: Diplomacy, Conflict, and the Future of South East Asia

Author:
Kristie Barrow, Chong Ja Ian, Joel Ng, and Melanie O'Brien
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In June 2022, the National Office of the AIIA hosted its first overseas roundtable since COVID restrictions were lifted at the Australian High Commission in Singapore. The day-long session featured several Australia- and Singapore-based experts considering how the war in Ukraine might affect thinking on security in Southeast Asia. Several members of the Singaporean Government and the diplomatic community in Singapore were invited to the event. This special report is a product of the same project, and the AIIA is grateful for the generous support of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

326. Turkey’s Desecuritization of Energy Resources in the Eastern Mediterranean After Russia-Ukraine War

Author:
Mehmet Ferhat Fırat and Emine Akçadağ Alagöz
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
After the Russia-Ukraine war, energy politics has become a subject of security studies due to the European states' energy dependency on Russian natural gas. With the Russia-Ukraine war, Eastern Mediterranean gas has become more critical for the EU's energy security. However, the ongoing disputes and impossibilities regarding the transfer of Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe have opened the door for the actors to re-evaluate the securitized energy relations. Turkey has been securitizing discovered energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean with discourses on the violation of its maritime sovereignty and ignoring the Turkish Cypriots by the actors in the region. This paper argues that Turkey's energy politics in the region tends to take the opposite direction, from securitization to desecuritization. Turkey's decades-long energy hub projects will serve to this end and gain more importance for Europe. In this sense, Turkey accelerated its desecuritization initiatives by taking normalization steps with the regional actors Israel, Egypt, and Greece, against which Turkey securitized energy resources.
Topic:
Securitization, Russia-Ukraine War, Energy Security, and Desecuritization
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Eastern Mediterranean

327. Note on the Present Situation in Ukraine and in Israel and Gaza

Author:
Paolo Cotta-Ramusino
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
In this dramatic period, severe conflicts are endangering global security. It is important to reduce heavily these conflicts and restore a path for peace and security. It will not be an easy task, but it is important that Pugwash make its contribution to the goal of peace in whatever way possible. In any case the most important decision to be made is an immediate ceasefire followed by suitable negotiations. Let us discuss briefly the two most relevant and dangerous current conflicts: the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza and Israel. The number of people killed and wounded, both civilian and military, is growing daily, and the numbers mentioned below are just provisional data.
Topic:
Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

328. A Forgotten Friendship: Serbo-Ukrainian Relations and Pro-Russian Narratives

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The relations between the two countries from the moment Ukraine gained its independence, in 1991, to date can be marked as formally friendly relations. The peak of friendship and solidarity came with NATO’s bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999, which has remained one of the most traumatic episodes in Serbian contemporary history. During that episode, Ukrainian solidarity was demonstrated through Ukraine’s attempts to be an impartial mediator, its condemnation of the military intervention without the mandate of the UN Security Council, as well as through provided assistance. Today, that episode is easily forgotten in Serbia’s political discourse, especially by political leaders. Besides, although the relations between the two countries continue to be formally friendly, they are still burdened with stereotypes prevailing in Serbian society as a product of very stench pro-Russian narratives in the past few years, which have made Russia and its leadership very popular in Serbia. This popularity, along with the Serbian policy of balancing between the West and Russia, makes the relations between Serbia and Ukraine not hostile but relations charged with contradictions.
Topic:
NATO, History, Bilateral Relations, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Serbia

329. Resolve to Protect: The War in Ukraine and Challenges to Protecting Civilians in Evolving Warfare Dynamics

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What can the states and governments do to protect civilians in conflict and prevent further civilian losses in war in Ukraine? Read about it in the new analysis written by a member of the BCSP International Advisory Committee, Marta Martinelli. The war in Ukraine marks a turning point in the history of Europe and of the relations between the West and Russia, as well as more broadly, the configuration of alliances that the conflict contributes to shaping as it protracts and evolves. The situation in Ukraine is a powerful indication of a world we used to take for granted. The old framework provided a more or less reliable ecosystem designed to provide predictability and a level of stability acceptable to the world’s large powers. It included the use of diplomacy to address international confrontations, reliance on international law to regulate relations amongst states including in the conduct of hostilities, and a general ‘agreement’ that provoking a direct confrontation between Russia and the West belonged to the realm of the irrational and unacceptable. That predictability was shattered in February 2022. If there is one element that emerges starkly from the conduct of the war in Ukraine, it is the insignificance of diplomacy to restore peace and the total disregard for International Humanitarian Law and civilians caught in the war. Whilst not new to contemporary conflicts (as seen in Darfur, the Central African Republic, Yemen, and Syria, amongst others) the scale and speed of the harm inflicted to civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is unprecedented, facilitated also by the use of new technologies.
Topic:
Civilians, Armed Conflict, Protection, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

330. Ukrainian Innovation in a War of Attrition

Author:
Seth G. Jones, Riley McCabe, and Alexander Palmer
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Russia suffered more combat deaths in Ukraine in the first year of the war than in all of its wars since World War II combined, according to a new CSIS analysis of the force disposition and military operations of Russian and Ukrainian units. The average rate of Russian soldiers killed per month is at least 25 times the number killed per month in Chechnya and 35 times the number killed in Afghanistan, which highlight the stark realities of a war of attrition. The Ukrainian military has also performed remarkably well against a much larger and initially better-equipped Russian military, in part due to the innovation of its forces.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Geopolitics, Innovation, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe