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311. Sporadic Crises in Europe in the Support for Ukraine: Why the West Should Keep to its Primary Path

Author:
Nino Chanadiri
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, there has been ongoing discussion about whether or not the collective West is getting tired of supporting Ukraine. Despite the fact that, overall, the West continues to express support by providing assistance, and Washington and Brussels1 repeatedly state that continued assistance is crucial to keep Ukraine fighting for its independence, there are still periodic attempts by some actors within the European Union to suggest peace treaties that might lead to a ceasefire as soon as possible. For example, in spring 2022, Italy presented a 4-point peace plan that concentrated on demilitarizing the front lines; declaring Ukraine a neutral country, with some unidentified states guaranteeing its security; having an agreement between Russia and Ukraine about the status of Crimea and Donbas that would give those parts of Ukraine full autonomy in every sphere but officially would leave them parts of Ukraine; and having a multilateral agreement signed between Russia, Ukraine and the EU about the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the removal of the sanctions.2 However, the plan never saw success because it left space for legitimate concerns associated with Russia not fulfilling its responsibilities and continuing its aggressive policy both against Ukraine and against other neighbors. Italy has had opposition from various political groups to the sending of arms to Ukraine, and Prime Minister Meloni, who has generally been supportive towards Ukraine, has been voicing concerns about “fatigue… from all sides”.3
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

312. Ukraine’s State-Civil Partnership to Reform the Security Sector

Author:
Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld and Bob Deen
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Reforming Ukraine’s large security sector and overcoming its Soviet-era legacies has been a major challenge since independence. Ukrainian civil society has been vociferously demanding a transition towards a transparent and well-governed security sector that upholds the interests of the population rather than keeping it under control. This is also a priority for the Ukrainian Government and its international partners, as a prerequisite for further integration with the European Union and NATO. This report therefore analyses the changing role of Ukrainian civil society by investigating seven examples of key reforms of the security sector and puts forward recommendations for Ukraine’s international partners regarding their cooperation with Ukrainian civil society organisations (CSOs).
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

313. Preparing for a Longer War: Is a Ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia possible by 2024?

Author:
Stefan Meister, András Rácz, and Judith Heckenthaler
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has failed and is now a protracted war of attrition. Russia has adapted to this situation and prepared for a longer war. The legitimization of the Putin system is increasingly built around the war. As long as Ukraine has no security guarantees, a ceasefire is not realistic from either side. Therefore, the focus should be on protecting the territory Ukraine controls and defining together with the Western partners how security can be provided and what victory means.
Topic:
Security, Vladimir Putin, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

314. Ukrainian Organisations' Response to Russia's Full-Scale Invasion

Author:
Maryna Slobodyanuk, Lyudmila Cherkez, and Emma Mateo
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Join the Harriman Institute for an event with Ukrainian activists discussing how their organisations have responded to the 2022 escalation of Russia’s war on Ukraine. We will be joined virtually by activists representing two organisations: Truth Hounds, and TAPS Ukraine. Both organisations were in operation prior to 2022, but their work was significantly impacted by the challenges associated with the full-scale invasion. Maryna Slobodyanuk will discuss the work of Truth Hounds, where she is the Head of the Analytical Department. Truth Hounds has been documenting war crimes and other serious human rights violations in Ukraine since 2014. Lyudmila Cherkez will share the work of TAPS Ukraine, where she is head of communication. TAPS Ukraine is based in Dnipro, 100km from the front lines, and has been supporting those affected by military loss since 2018. TAPS Ukraine was also involved in the creation of the Coordinating Headquarters of Dnipro Volunteers, one of the largest volunteer hubs established in Eastern Ukraine following 24 February 2022. This hybrid event is open to the public and you are welcome to join us online or in person. The event will be moderated by Emma Mateo.
Topic:
Civil Society, Activism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

315. Economic Challenges to Ukrainian Refugee Integration in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Atanas Dimitrov and Vasil Pavlov
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has resulted in the displacement of millions of Ukrainians, leading to socio-economic and political challenges for the host countries. The Refugee Response Plan, encompassing heavily affected EU Member States, has been the focus of this study, examining how the issue of refugee integration was addressed, with a specific emphasis on flaws and omissions in the approach. Various demographic and socioeconomic data and strategic national documents related to refugee integration were compared for this analysis. Employment was identified as a key tool for the integration of Ukrainian refugees. The findings revealed a lack of a common refugee integration policy among the surveyed countries despite similar past and current socioeconomic circumstances and security environments, including mixed migration. Ambiguities across these countries, including local population perceptions hindering Ukrainian refugee integration, were observed. Consequently, we assert the necessity for EU harmonized measures, emphasizing their long-term implementation to alleviate the economic burden of the war in Ukraine and provide predictability in the actions of individual governments.
Topic:
Economics, Refugees, Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

316. Ukraine’s political model recast: Assessing new opportunities and risks

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Ukrainian political model is in flux. The war against Russia has eroded the core elements of the old order, in which elections were a focal point of the political contestation and the main mechanism for resolving political conflicts. Oligarchs have lost their critical role in Ukrainian politics. Their impact on the media and the party system has weakened considerably, which is a very positive development for the country’s democratic progress. At the same time, the disappearance of the oligarchs as a quasi-institution facilitates the process of power concentration around President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Office. Given the absence of elections due to martial law, this poses the risk that the new political model might be tailored to the incumbent’s needs to the detriment of the public interest. As the war becomes protracted, societal pressure to reactivate comprehensive reforms in the country, including the fight against corruption, is increasing. This creates certain tensions between the national leaders and the general public. Ostensibly, the incumbent president cannot and will not be able to ignore this demand, especially if it is firmly and consistently supported by Western actors.
Topic:
Democracy, Oligarchy, Domestic Politics, Economic Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

317. Franco-German leadership in European security: Engine in reverse gear?

Author:
Iro Särkkä and Minna Ålander
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Germany and France led the European response to Russia’s first war in Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The legacy of the failed Minsk process weighed on their ability to change course in 2022, as the required response went beyond economic sanctions and diplomatic negotiations. In both the French and the German case, there is a mismatch between self-perception and external expectations. France lacks the economic and military resources to substantiate its great-power identity, while Germany’s selective leadership is not on a par with its economic weight. As a result, neither French President Emmanuel Macron nor German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were able to provide convincing leadership in the initial stages of Russia’s second war in Ukraine in 2022. While the Franco-German reconciliation has historically constituted the core of European integration, their response to Russia’s war of aggression and its wider implications in Europe has made it clear that the Franco-German engine is struggling to provide coherent and effective wartime leadership. The two countries should not only acknowledge the enduring central role of the transatlantic link for European security, but also enhance cooperation with groups of smaller countries – and consider following their lead, too.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Leadership, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, France, and Germany

318. From Buffer to Frontier: Ukraine and the EU

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In June 2022, the European Union granted candidate status to Ukraine. A strong political statement, which was welcomed as such in Kyiv. But for a country at war, symbols do not suffice. Accepting a neighbour that is under invasion as a candidate for membership must mean accepting more responsibility for that neighbour’s survival. Ukraine was a buffer state; it has become a frontier state. The EU should finally come up with an overall plan to provide military support to Ukraine over the long term, gradually taking over the main effort from the United States. After one year of war, the time for piecemeal decisions (a dozen tanks now, another dozen in a month) is long past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

319. Russian Military Drones: Past, Present, and Future of the UAV Industry

Author:
Pavel Luzin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Since 2009, Russia has invested significant effort into developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, for military purposes. They have used drones for reconnaissance, targeting, electronic warfare, and direct strikes. Some of these UAVs have been used in Ukraine and Syria since 2014, while combat UAVs (i.e., the Orion and Altius drones) still were on the research and development phase at the beginning of 2022. However, after a year of war in Ukraine, the Russian military has lost the biggest part of its tactical reconnaissance and targeting UAVs. At the same time, it was still unable to deploy advanced combat UAVs. As soon as fall 2022, or roughly six months into Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine, Russia started the large-scale use of Iranian loitering munitions, and continues to be highly dependent on them as of fall 2023. Despite efforts towards increasing their production, Russia’s use of its own loitering munitions remains insignificant.
Topic:
Weapons, Drones, Russia-Ukraine War, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

320. Synchronized: The Impact of the War on Ukraine's Energy Landscape

Author:
Thomas Laffitte and Ihor Moshenets
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine was able to generate substantial revenues from the transit costs of Russian hydrocarbons destined for the European market. Despite the war, Russian oil (and some gas) continues to flow to Europe via Ukraine, and the latter continues to receive transit fees. In the field of hydrocarbons, although Ukraine is far from having hydrocarbon reserves equivalent to those of Russia, it has several assets to offer Europeans, including particularly large storage capacities. Fortunately, these storage facilities are located in the western part of the country, away from much of the fighting. Thanks to the successful synchronization of the Ukrainian and the EU power grids, the electricity trade continues. It has become a field of increased cooperation between Kyiv and Brussels, offering a potential blueprint for other sectors with a view to future integration. Despite the immense destruction caused by the Russian army, which specifically targeted the country’s energy infrastructure, Ukraine has shown extraordinary resilience. Ukraine can export electricity to its European partners, creating a profitable situation for both parties and good promises for the future. While the debate continues in Europe regarding the role of nuclear energy in the energy transition, it is already clear that in this domain, North American actors have the upper hand in Ukraine. Decisions made in Brussels on the exact contours of the energy transition will have a major influence on energy policy decisions made in Ukraine. The country has significant potential to produce decarbonized and renewable electricity.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Nuclear Energy, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine