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302. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: From Full-Scale War to Conflict Resolution and Post-War Recovery
- Author:
- Yuri Yakymenko, A. Bychenko, Makysm Bielawski, V. Zamiatin, and Oleksiy Melnyk
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- For 570 days, Ukraine has been living in a full-scale war against the russian aggressor, defending its freedom, independence and very right to exist. During this time, our country has suffered losses and destruction on a scale unimaginable on the European continent after the World War II. Towns and villages wrecked to the ground, tens of thousands dead, artificially created environmental disasters and constant nuclear blackmail, the deportation of Ukrainian children – an outright act of genocide against the Ukrainian people, systematic destruction of the country’s energy, transport and agricultural infrastructure, the war against the civilian population, the war-induced migration and demographic crisis are just a few points in the long list of disasters caused by russian aggression.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Economy, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
303. Strategic Partners of Ukraine (Realities and Priorities in War)
- Author:
- M. Pashkov, Mykola Sunhurovskyi, P. Stetsiuk, S. Chekunova, M. Mischenko, and O. Pyshchulina
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- The topic of strategic partnership is particularly relevant due to the new warinduced priorities and goals of Ukraine’s foreign policy, and to dynamic geopolitical trends and processes. The Ukraine war has generated new challenges and threats, triggered a dangerous polarisation of the international community, escalated conflict and unpredictability both globally and regionally. Amidst russia’s large-scale aggression, Kyiv is undergoing complex processes of establishing war diplomacy, improving and transforming its goals, objectives and priorities in key foreign areas, including the principles and motives of strategic partnership. Ukraine’s actions in the global arena are now generally focused on ensuring the country’s defence capability, integrating into the EU and NATO, acquiring security guarantees, gaining support for the country’s reconstruction, etc. In the settings of the ongoing war, there are ambiguous processes of countries’ positioning in relation to russian aggression and determining relevant models of behaviour. In general, the international community can be divided into a coalition of Ukraine’s allies; states in solidarity with our country; «neutral» countries distancing themselves from the war; and supporters of the aggressor. In the meantime, these positions evolve, with more countries becoming in solidarity with Ukraine in its fight for freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The realities of war have affected the nature of Ukraine’s partnership with other nations and necessitated an inventory of the foreign relations system. Therefore, the most important indicators of bilateral relations in terms of priority and strategic nature include support for Ukraine’s resistance to russian invaders and condemnation of the aggressor’s crimes; mutual long-term interests based on the values of democracy and the rule of law; and promotion of Ukraine’s European and EuroAtlantic integration. The war-related processes and trends call for updating the circle of states whose relations with Ukraine are defined as priority and strategic, according to the current Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine. Obviously, the respective position of a particular country in this critical period for Ukraine will determine the level and model of bilateral relations in the future. In turn, it seems appropriate to regulate the legal framework for the introduction of strategic partnership tools.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
304. The sixth domain: The role of the private sector in warfare
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The United States and its allies have for some time recognized, as NATO doctrine provides, five operational domains—air, land, maritime, cyberspace, and space.1 Each of those arenas fully fits with the understanding of a domain as a “specified sphere of activity” and, in each, militaries undertake critical wartime actions. But in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, certain key operational activities have been undertaken by the private sector as part of the conduct of warfare.2 By way of example, private-sector companies have been instrumental both in providing effective cybersecurity and in maintaining working information technology networks. As part of such efforts, these firms have established coordinated mechanisms to work with relevant government actors. These operational and coordinated activities by the private sector demonstrate that there is a “sixth domain”—specifically, the “sphere of activities” of the private sector in warfare—that needs to be included as part of warfighting constructs, plans, preparations, and actions if the United States and its allies are to prevail in future conflicts. As will be elaborated below, that sphere of activities focuses mainly on the roles of information and critical infrastructures, including their intersections—ranging from the transmission and protection of information to the assurance of critical infrastructure operations. Many of the United States’ activities in the sixth domain will take place in the United States homeland. However, while “defending the homeland” is listed as the first priority in the 2022 National Defense Strategy, insufficient attention has been paid to the actions that will be required of the private sector beyond just the defense industrial base as part of accomplishing an effective defense.3 Likewise, when US military forces are engaged in overseas combat, private-sector companies in allied countries (as well as US companies operating overseas) will be critical for the effectiveness of US forces, as well as for the allies’ own militaries. In short, establishing an effective strategy for the private sector in warfare is a key requirement for the United States and its allies.
- Topic:
- Cybersecurity, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, Private Sector, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
305. Fifty shades of red: where does Russia draw the line?
- Author:
- Polina Sinovets
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- From the outset, the war on Ukraine came with a particular feature attached: the threat of nuclear escalation. As President Putin stated in his 24 February speech, “whoever tries to hinder us or threaten our country or our people should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history.”1 Rather than deterring any type of support to Ukraine, this has instead led to a discussion about what exactly would trigger a nuckear escalation: where do Russia's red lines really lie? This paper is structured as follows: it defines what “red lines” are in international relations theory, and outlines the narratives and timeline associated with their use in the war on Ukraine. It then proposes three shades of red to categorize the different degrees of threat they represent. It concludes that Russia’s nuclear rhetoric has decreased rather than increased the chances of a major escalation of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, International Relations Theory, Deterrence, Russia-Ukraine War, and Red Line
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
306. Ukraine, NATO and the Black Sea
- Author:
- Iulian Romanyshyn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Since its occupation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has steadily expanded military capabilities and technical infrastructure on the peninsula, transforming the region into a springboard for offensive military operations in the Black Sea and beyond. Despite growing insecurity and Russian militarization of the region over the years, the transatlantic community has not put as high of a strategic premium on the Black Sea compared to the Baltic region. Russia’s renewed aggression against Ukraine, however, has reshaped the strategic landscape, giving momentum for NATO to remedy its Black Sea defence posture. Greater military support to Ukraine and strengthened forward presence in the area would be key components of a new approach to deterring and confronting Russian aggression.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Transatlantic Relations, Militarization, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Black Sea
307. The Ukrainian war economy
- Author:
- Dmytro Boyarchuk and Marek Dabrowski
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Ukraine has been subject to full-scale Russian aggression since 24 February 2022, with major implications for Ukraine’s economic performance and economic management. Martial law has temporarily restricted civil and political rights and allowed the government to introduce command management in the economic sphere. These war-related prerogatives have been used only partly (for example, in the energy and transportation sectors, restricting convertibility of the hryvnia and banking transactions with foreign currency), while the dominant role of the private sector and market forces has been maintained in other respects. As a result of war damages and territorial losses, Ukraine’s real GDP contracted by about 30 percent in 2022. Ukraine also experienced severe balance-of-payments and budget tensions in the first months of the war. Intensification of foreign financial aid from the second half of 2022 helped to achieve relative macroeconomic stability in the first half of 2023. The prospects of the Ukrainian economy depend on the length of the war, associated damages and the size of external financial aid. Before February 2022, Ukraine’s record of economic and governance reform was mixed; the war stopped most reforms. On the other hand, obtaining European Union candidate status in June 2022 provided a new incentive to implement comprehensive governance reforms related, in particular, to the judicial system, media, national minorities, public transparency and fighting corruption.
- Topic:
- Markets, Economy, Banking, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
308. The future of the transatlantic partnership: US perceptions and debates
- Author:
- Sophia Winograd, Valentina Gruarin, Cengiz Günay, and Vedran Dzihic
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, altered Europe’s security architecture and long-term strategic planning. Many in Europe have shared with the Biden administration that the aggression is not only an existential threat to Ukraine but also to the liberal world order and its values. The war has revived transatlantic coordination and increased the popularity of NATO on both sides of the Atlantic. However, there are critical voices which have questioned the transatlantic commitment and its longevity. This paper examines whether and how the transatlantic partnership has been revitalized and whether it is long lasting. It does so by focusing on U.S. debates, differing opinions, and varying positions on the war and cooperation with NATO and the EU.
- Topic:
- NATO, European Union, Partnerships, Transatlantic Relations, Debates, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
309. How African states voted on Russia’s war in Ukraine at the United Nations – and what it means for the West
- Author:
- Elias Götz, Jonas Geji Kaas, and Kevin Patrick Knudsen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Most African states have not supported United Nations (UN) General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine. To win more support in Africa, the West needs to stress the importance of upholding the territorial integrity norm and engaging African states as equal partners. The West’s engagement on the continent must be about more than ‘containing’ Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, United Nations, History, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Ukraine, and Global Focus
310. Un año después...
- Author:
- Lila Roldán Vázquez
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Este artículo pretende inducir una reflexión sobre las consecuencias de la guerra de Rusia en Ucrania, que ya dura nueve años, particularmente después de la invasión total el 24 de febrero de 2022, y su impacto en el escenario geopolítico internacional.
- Topic:
- Security, War, Sanctions, Global South, Alliance, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine