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291. What Does the Russian Army Think About its War in Ukraine? Criticisms, Recommendations, Adaptations

Author:
Dimitri Minic
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The Russian army is very critical of its war in Ukraine. Not just of the first phase of the failed special military operation (SVO), which was inspired by the theorization of bypassing, but also of the strategic deterrence phase that preceded it. What Does the Russian Army Think About its War in Ukraine? Criticisms, Recommendations, Adaptations Download 0.98 Mo Russian military theorists have commented on the profound lack of preparation not just for the SVO, but also—in many areas—for the heterotelic war the SVO has become. The Russian army’s weaknesses vis-à-vis the Ukrainian army are generally, and sometimes quite directly, recognized. The Russian military elites have made numerous recommendations for improving Russia’s military performance, primarily focusing on the ground and aerospace forces. Meanwhile, the Russian army has mostly adapted (more or less successfully) to the difficulties it has encountered in the last year and a half in Ukraine. Although the Putin regime is authoritarian and intent on reducing freedom of expression in Russian society, the existence and tolerance of a certain amount of truth-telling at this level of the military apparatus indicate that the Russian army’s and state’s ability to adapt should not be underestimated.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

292. Envisioning a Long-Term Security Arrangement for Ukraine

Author:
Eric Ciaramella
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The moment has arrived for Western leaders to offer a practical vision for Ukraine’s long-term security. This paper lays out a detailed proposal for a sustainable multilateral security arrangement in which Ukraine has a strong military that is backed by legally codified pledges of support—training, equipping, and defense industrial cooperation—from the United States and Europe. The model outlined in this paper draws on official Ukrainian government proposals and lessons from the United States’ security relationships with close partners that are not treaty allies, notably Israel. It prioritizes a strategy of deterrence by denial: by fielding a robust, modernized, and well-trained military, Ukraine can raise the cost of future aggression to such a point that Russia would lose confidence in its ability to achieve its objectives there through force.1 Independent of battlefield developments, Ukraine and its partners must negotiate a long-term security arrangement now. Reaching a consensus sooner rather than later on a framework makes more sense than putting off controversial decisions until large-scale hostilities end. A security arrangement has the potential to undermine President Vladimir Putin’s conviction that Russia can outlast Ukraine and the West. It can also assure Ukraine that it will be able to defend its sovereignty even if it does not liberate its entire territory this year. Many of the elements contained in this proposal can be implemented during wartime—indeed, some of them are already in place—and strengthened after the war. The proposed security model is not necessarily an alternative to NATO membership, which enjoys strong support from Ukraine’s leaders and public. The allies have promised the country an eventual place in NATO, but they have made clear that this will not be on the agenda while the war is ongoing. Even once the war ends, they are unlikely to move swiftly to admit Ukraine. Therefore, the proposal here seeks to enhance the country’s ability to defend itself as it remains outside of NATO for the foreseeable future. At the same time, it emphasizes the critical role Ukraine’s EU accession will play in its long-term security. The United States must lead the conversation on a future security arrangement. Not only does its unparalleled capacity for security assistance and multinational coordination make it vital to the success of the arrangement, but a clear long-term U.S. pledge to Ukraine would also prompt Europe to increase its commitments, thereby ensuring proper burden-sharing. The proposed arrangement would be flexible enough to encompass commitments from the EU as a collective, from individual member states, and from other countries. To make the U.S. commitment to Ukraine credible and durable, the Biden administration must work with Congress to secure broad bipartisan support. This study identifies five elements that are critical to a future security arrangement: Strong political and legal codification that ensures the arrangement will endure regardless of electoral cycles and leadership changes in the United States and Europe A predictable, multiyear pipeline for military supplies that enables Ukraine to plan and sustain a future force structure capable of deterring Russian aggression Support for Ukraine’s defense industry, as well as targeted defense industrial investments in the United States and Europe to prepare for a long war and an extended period of Ukrainian military reconstitution Mechanisms for political consultations, information sharing, and coordination to ensure that Ukraine’s military needs are met in a timely fashion Clear linkage to Ukraine’s EU accession process and postwar reconstruction Much of the public debate to date has focused on Ukraine’s request for security “guarantees” in response to the failure of the previous “assurances” encapsulated in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. To avoid confusion, and in light of the historical baggage these terms carry, this paper uses “arrangement” or “commitment” to refer to the future legal and political framework in question.2
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

293. The importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in the context of the war in Ukraine

Author:
Łukasz Jureńczyk
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The subject of the article is the importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in relation to the war in Ukraine. The article begins with an introduction discussing its main assumptions and a synthetic historical background of the importance of the US for Poland and its security. The main part of the article is divided into two parts, the first one discussing the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy after the Cold War. The second part is devoted to the change in the importance of the US in this policy in connection with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the main factors that determine this change. The aim of the article is to identify and analyze the changes in the importance of the United States in the Polish military security policy as a result of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. The main research problem is whether the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy increased as a result of the war, and if so, because of what main factors? The thesis of the article states that the war in Ukraine increased the importance of the US as the main external guarantor of Poland’s security and defense. This is due to the leading role played by the United States in military support for Ukraine and strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, including Poland, in the absence of leadership from Western European powers. The research included interviews with scientists and analysts from research centers in Washington and New York.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Poland, and United States of America

294. Active labour market policies response to Ukrainian citizens entering the European Union’s labour market

Author:
Oleksandra Struk
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article contains a thorough analysis of the European active labour market policies in the face of the influx of Ukrainians following the outbreak of the Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine. An overview of the temporary protection regulations for Ukrainians adopted by the EU states made it possible to determine the conditions of legal residence and labour market access. Statistical data and surveys conducted by international institutions became the basis for identification the Ukrainian refugee’s profile on the EU labour market. Thus, the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens staying in EU states are women with higher-than-average educational level; good or high proficiency in English; who used to work before the war with a non-negligible share in the health and education sectors; and who often work below their qualification. In addition, an analytical comparison was undertaken to highlight the image of migrants who came to Poland before February 24, 2022 and that of war refugees who have arrived following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Acceptance of Ukrainians by Poles, remarkable similarities between countries in terms of culture, favourable access to the labour market and healthcare are of the utmost significance for both economic migrants and war refugees.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Labor Market, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

295. Non-governmental assistance to Ukrainian refugees by Polish society in the aftermath of the escalation of hostilities in 2022

Author:
Katarzyna Maciejewska-Mieszkowska
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The full-scale war in Ukraine caused the largest refugee crisis in Europe after World War II. Poland was the initial destination for people fleeing the war, causing a rapid influx of several million refugees in just a few weeks. An unprecedented and rapid response of the Polish society in terms of providing assistance to refugees enabled the acceptance of those who decided to stay in Poland Social action that began at the local level and translated into commonly known non-governmental assistance provided the basis and impetus for fostering beneficial connections between Poland and Ukraine, not only on the state level, but especially within the respective populations. The purpose of the article was to explore the forms of assistance offered by the Polish society, the scope of aspects of the refugees’ lives it addressed, and how this was reflected in the mutual perception of Poles and Ukrainians. As a hypothesis, it was assumed that a direct involvement of the Polish society in helping refugees from Ukraine decreased over the course of a year of the full-blown war in Ukraine, with simultaneous high social support for the state’s systemic solutions in this regard. In order to verify the hypothesis, a combination of descriptive, analysis of existing data, comparative and statistical methods were employed.
Topic:
Refugees, NGOs, Society, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

296. Scientific and Educational Life of Ukrainians in Bavaria

Author:
Artem Kokosh
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The phenomenon of the Ukrainian national minority is well known in Bavaria. Despite the noticeable presence in Landtag, local universities, Bavarian Academy of Sciences, diplomatic offices and other institutions, they are not the most populous minority in the region. Moreover, in the early 2000s there was the Ukrainian school, Technical- Husbandry Institute and University which had the legal acts to offer education to not only Ukrainians but also to people of other nationalities. What opportunities are available to Ukrainians in Bavaria to benefit from favourable conditions and how is the local authority handling the matter of the Ukrainian institutions? The main objective of the research is to identify the main periods of Ukrainian presence in scientific and educational institutions in Bavaria, as well as research their status in the region. Moreover, the support of these institutions to Ukrainian refugees in 2022 will be studied. Examining the Ukrainian refugee situation in Europe, the article will also evaluate the utility of these institutions. As a final point, the study presents the capacity of these institutions to affect the integration of students into society nowadays.
Topic:
Education, Minorities, Refugees, Students, Russia-Ukraine War, and Universities
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Bavaria

297. Verification of nationality and rehabilitation in Upper Silesia as a point of reference for Donbas

Author:
Cezary Trosiak
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
In Poland, the region where the phenomenon of multiculturalism is most strongly represented is Upper Silesia. Upper Silesia, its historical hosts, have been confronted with German, Polish and Czech nationalism since the mid-21st century. Initially, they were forced to determine their ethnic affiliation, then, due to the change of borders, they were forced to move to one or the other side of the newly established Polish-German border in 1922. After 1945, they were subjected to strong repression, deportation to forced labor camps, forced displacement, degrading verification of nationality, and then they were confronted with the Polish population who came to Upper Silesia. Most often, the Poles who arrived were hostile to the Upper Silesians. The aim of this article is to answer the question whether the experiences of integration of the indigenous population of Upper Silesia into the social, cultural, economic and political structures of the Polish state after World War II can be related to a similar process that will take place after the end of hostilities in the eastern regions of the Ukrainian state. . The starting point is the thesis that the Upper Silesian experience of the rehabilitation and citizenship verification procedures should serve as a warning against the mistakes made in Upper Silesia rather than as a useful reference point.
Topic:
History, Citizenship, Nationality, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

298. Ukrainians in Poland on behalf of refugees – a case study of the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship

Author:
Teresa Astramowicz-Leyk, Olha Ivasechko, and Turchyn
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The aim of the article is to present the activity of three branches of the Association of Ukrainians in Poland, covering the entire Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. The study also outlines the Association’s activities supporting refugees. The main research hypothesis is that the Association of Ukrainians in Poland is actively engaged in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship, and following Russia’s full-scale invasion, members of the Association became extremely proactive both in helping refugees from Ukraine, as well as Ukrainians who stayed in Ukraine, including those from the territory of military operations. The core research problems focuses on the following questions: What efforts did the Association of Ukrainians in Poland undertake to maintain its history, traditions, language and culture? Which activities have been supported by local government authorities, including the Voivodeship ones? How has the Association changed its activity following the Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022? Previous studies conducted by the authors demonstrate that economic migrants from Ukraine in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship did not perceive themselves as a part of the Ukrainian minority living in the region. Meanwhile, the relationship between the Association and the refugees is different.
Topic:
Minorities, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

299. Mechanisms for the Protection of Ukrainian Refugees in the EU Member States

Author:
Olha Ivasechko, Yaryna Turchyn, and Teresa Astramowicz-Leyk
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article considers the issue of the migration crisis of Ukrainian refugees to EU member states caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. An elucidation was made as to the quantity of Ukrainian refugees taken in by European states since the Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine commenced. An analysis of forms of protection for individuals in the European Union is conducted, including refugee status and temporary protection. The legislation of refugee status in the EU is represented through the prism of the analysis of the Council Directive 2001/55/EC on temporary protection. The key difference between temporary protection and refugee status is defined. The key problems faced by European countries are highlighted; concurrently, the obstacles experienced by Ukrainian refugees are presented, namely, obtaining housing and employment. Special attention was paid to the issue of “fatigue” and exhaustion of social systems and ordinary citizens in EU countries. The authors present the results of the study on the mechanisms of providing protection and asylum to Ukrainian refugees in the EU. Furthermore, the 10-point strategy suggested by the European Commission to the European Council and the Justice and Home Affairs Council in order to support EU countries in their endeavor of admitting Ukrainian refugees has been duly given attention. The core research objectives revolve around the effectiveness of protection mechanisms for Ukrainian refugees in the EU, and any consequences said system may bring about for both the EU and Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Protection, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

300. Importing Instability How the War Against Ukraine Makes Russia Less Secure

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
ACLED data indicate that cross-border violence between Ukraine and Russia escalated in May-October 2023 in the wake of the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive. Conflict incidents inside Russia have become increasingly deadly for both civilians and the Russian military. Although the Russian government has attempted to hush up the impact of the war’s spillover, local authorities — especially those in the border regions — are struggling to fend off cross-border attacks. Ukrainian drone attacks have surged since May 2023, reaching deeper into Russian territory and inflicting significant damage to Russia’s reputation, military, and infrastructure. While the Wagner Group mutiny revealed the Russian state’s inability to control the internal situation, it may also have rallied the establishment around President Vladimir Putin. Still, resistance to the invasion from individuals and armed groups within Russia shows no signs of abating, as attacks on military enlistment offices and rail infrastructure continue despite the government crackdown on opposition and protest.
Topic:
Security, Drones, Wagner Group, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine