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21. Desinformación y censura en conflictos internacionales

Author:
Vicente Palacio
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El fenómeno de la desinformación no se limita al ámbito de las redes sociales; no es patrimonio únicamente de los regímenes autoritarios y populistas; y no afecta únicamente a la limpieza de los procesos electorales. Si ponemos el foco en el análisis de la información en los conflictos internacionales, debemos tener en cuenta que la desinformación es un fenómeno con varias ramificaciones. El punto de partida de este documento de trabajo es la constatación de que la desinformación, la propaganda y la censura en los conflictos armados representan una amenaza vital para nuestras democracias. Ambas atentan contra el derecho de la ciudadanía a obtener una información veraz, que es la base de las democracias liberales. Para España y para la Unión Europea, que están enfrentando dos grandes conflictos en Ucrania y en Oriente Medio, una información veraz y a tiempo debería ser la base de una democracia sana y también de una política exterior que rinda cuentas a los ciudadanos. Este documento tiene un triple objetivo. Primero, realizar un balance crítico de las respuestas legislativas dadas a nivel europeo frente a la desinformación. Segundo, hacer un repaso de los aspectos más relevantes en ambos conflictos de Ucrania y Gaza. Y tercero, lanzar reflexiones y algunas propuestas para poder combatir mejor la desinformación, la propaganda o la censura en la medida de lo posible, siendo conscientes de que en esa vía podremos alcanzar éxitos parciales, aunque significativ
Topic:
Disinformation, Armed Conflict, Censorship, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Gaza

22. Pathways to Justice and Accountability for Conflict-Related Sexual Violence: Lessons Learned and Policy Recommendations from the Frontlines

Author:
Jess Keller
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
The Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security released a new report on the widespread use of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) and its devastating impacts on individuals and communities, which can last generations and undermine peace and security efforts. Sexual violence is used as a weapon of war by combatants in conflict situations worldwide, decimating societies and fueling displacement. It remains a silent crime, with an estimated 80 percent of cases in conflict settings going unreported. This fall, GIWPS convened leaders from Ukraine, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Colombia to share lessons learned for responding to the global scourge of CRSV. Drawing on their insights, this report presents actionable policy recommendations for key stakeholders to hold perpetrators accountable, meet survivor needs, and follow through on their commitments to deliver justice. The report, authored by Jess Keller, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Germany in Washington, D.C.
Topic:
Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, Accountability, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Colombia, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

23. Perspectives for the War in Ukraine

Author:
Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
There is no doubt that the military aggression against Ukraine unleashed by President Putin on 24 February 2022 represents the most significant disruption of security and peace in Europe since the end of World War II. The war has far-reaching repercussions affecting practically every aspect of our lives and impacting far beyond the European continent. In this article, I will first briefly assess the situation on the battlefield. I will then offer a few scenarios for how the conflict could evolve in the coming months. Afterward I will mainly focus on what has been called “Plan B”-thinking in the expert community: What if the official narrative of both sides – a military victory – does not materialize? What if the parties, exhausted by a war of attrition, decide to return to the negotiation table – or the high-intensity warfare transitions to low-intensity conflict leading to a de facto cessation of hostilities? What could a negotiated or a de facto ceasefire look like? And what issues would have to be negotiated if – in the most optimistic scenario – the parties decide to proceed from a ceasefire to a conflict settlement process?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

24. The War in Ukraine: Reality Check for Emerging Technologies and the Future of Warfare

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Federico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked the beginning of one of the most intense and brutal state-on-state conflicts opposing two modern militaries in recent memory. Despite Russia’s qualitative and quantitative advantages, Ukraine’s armed forces have so far put up strong resistance, foiling Russian plans of a quick victory and turning the conflict into a bloody war of attrition. Due to its scale and the nature of its belligerents, the conflict can provide us with a glimpse into what the future of warfare might look like and help us recentre the burgeoning conversation about the future of warfare in the current reality, especially as it relates to the presence and impact of emerging technologies. The war therefore offers us a way to understand how digital and off-the-shelf technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) impact conflicts of this scale and how relevant they are to current modern warfare. The war can also help us see how new actors become involved in warfare, what new means of influencing nation states are becoming available, and which new tools armed forces can use to affect battlefield outcomes. Importantly, it can help us gauge their importance relative to more traditional aspects of warfare. The analysis is structured in four main parts. This introduction is followed by a short contextualisation to situate the analysis in the wider conversation about emerging technologies and the future of warfare (Part 2). Part 3 provides a short overview of the conflict so far, dividing it into six phases. Part 4 surveys the main elements of the conflict in Ukraine, outlining what emerging technologies have been present and critically assessing their role in the war. Part 5 delves into some implications for the future of warfare that can be understood from the dynamics analysed thus far, especially as they relate to the place of emerging technologies in future conflicts and their role in determining battlefield outcomes. We argue that while some new technologies have come to characterise modern warfare, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict shows that many features of warfighting remain unchanged. Emerging technologies, such as AI and cheaper technological alternatives to traditional armaments, such as drones, are undoubtedly starting to change the battlefield and will play an increasingly larger role in future conflicts. Cyberspace and the globalised digital information space are bringing new actors and new means to exert influence, provide nations’ armed forces with new tools, and make battlefields increasingly globalised and complex. However, the conflict also shows that traditional aspects of warfare will not decrease in importance or be sidelined. Conflicts remain a contest of wills and adaptation, where ammunition supplies, the quantity of traditional armaments such as tanks, and both the number and quality of personnel and the logistical and organisational ability to bring all these elements to bear all remain the most important determinants of success. While technology is playing an increasing role in this equation, it remains unable to determine the outcome of a conflict on its own.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

25. On the Propaganda and Supply Fronts of the Russia-Ukraine War: North Korean Soldiers, Workers, and Munitions in the Donbas?

Author:
Avram Agov
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In the past summer, there were reports about the possibility of North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, DPRK) providing 100,000 volunteers to fight with the Russian army in Ukraine as well as construction workers to help reconstruct war-torn areas in the Donbas. These reports, based on Russian sources, became fodder in the propaganda war in Ukraine and resonated in international media and the academic community. Western sources reported possible supply of North Korean munitions to the Russian army. This paper will critically assess the three reports in the context of wartime dynamics and in the wider international context. The feasibility of sending North Korean troops, munitions, and workers to Russia will be viewed in light of the latest wartime developments in both Ukraine and Russia, including the retreat of the Russian army in some of the occupied areas, Russian partial mobilization and the annexation of four Ukrainian regions. The international context of evaluation includes the recent history of Russia-North Korea security and economic relations. The essay will argue that sending North Korean soldiers to Ukraine is out of the question, though the dispatch of North Korean workers has some degree of probability. The likeliest possibility is Russian procurement of North Korean munitions.
Topic:
Propaganda, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, and North Korea

26. Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: With Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov

Author:
Oleksii Reznikov, Mariana Budjeryn, Carol Saivetz, and Elizabeth Wood
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: A conversation with Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov: Thursday, October 17th, 2024. Speaker: Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s former defense minister, led Ukraine’s defense establishment in the lead up to Russia’s full-scale invasion and during the first year and a half of the war. Mr. Reznikov will discuss the successes and challenges of Ukraine’s defense effort, the role of technology and uncrewed systems, and the evolution of the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Discussant: Mariana Budjeryn, PhD, is a senior research associate with the Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She is the author of "Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine." Co-Chairs: Carol Saivetz is a senior advisor in the MIT Security Studies Program. She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is the Ford International Professor of History at MIT. She is the author most recently of "Roots of Russia's War in Ukraine," as well as articles on Vladimir Putin, right-wing populism in Russia and Turkey, and more.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

27. ACLED Year in Review Global Disorder in 2022

Author:
Timothy Lay
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated the war to a level that dwarfed all other conflicts in 2022, both in the sheer scale of violence and its deadliness. It also obscured a significant overall deterioration of the security situation in most other regions worldwide. Driven by heightened levels of conflict in both new and longstanding hotspots, political violence increased substantially over the course of the year. While 2022 saw some positive developments – including a significant reduction in total violent events in places like Afghanistan and Yemen after years of war – these gains only represent qualified improvements. Despite the aggregate decline in events in Afghanistan and Yemen, for example, they remain home to two of the most complex and severe conflict environments in the world. Globally, political violence targeting civilians became not only more common but also more deadly in 2022, underscoring the fact that it is civilian communities that are increasingly shouldering the burden of rising conflict levels around the world.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Civilians, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Yemen, and Global Focus

28. In a State of Denial: The Air War in Ukraine

Author:
Francesca Verville and Catarina Buchatskiy
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Ukraine’s ability to repel one of the world’s leading military powers has surprised the world. Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, neither Russia — despite its superiority in numbers and capabilities — nor Ukraine has been able to establish air superiority. With fewer and less capable air domain assets, Ukraine has instead been obliged to adopt the less costly and inherently defensive strategy of ‘air denial.’ However, for it to remain successful will require Ukraine to sustain continuous air defence operations and the West to commit to a steady supply of military assistance. Mutual air denial is essentially an attritional form of warfare from which Russia is likely to draw greater benefits and a strategy which forces Ukraine to make difficult choices regarding the targets it wants to deny. The F-16, albeit not a silver bullet, offers the prospect of enabling Ukraine’s air forces to more effectively exploit openings in Russia’s defences and to strike Russian forces and their logistics. However, unlike previous provisions of Western military assistance, the decision to give Ukraine F-16s moves past the more short-term view of helping it meet the immediate needs of the war. The effort spent training Ukrainian pilots, ground crews, and logisticians will have long-term value in supporting Ukraine’s air defence needs and deterring any renewed Russian aggression.
Topic:
Air Force, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

29. Fighting to Win: Ukraine, Russia, and the War for Survival

Author:
Philip Wasielewski
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Both the Kremlin and Ukrainians see the war as an existential conflict, even as a “holy war,” and are prepared to fight for years to achieve victory. Russian war aims vis-à-vis Ukraine have morphed into creating a “frozen conflict” to maintain its land bridge with Crimea. However, its primary war aim remains weakening NATO to regain its sphere of influence in the former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact states. To achieve this, Russia will conduct a prolonged strategic defense in Ukraine to demonstrate that Ukraine will never regain its territorial integrity and to show that American support will eventually end as it has for other client states. Ukraine’s primary war aim of restoring its territorial integrity is shared across its society. To achieve this, Ukraine’s strategy is to break the will of the Russian army and then reclaim Crimea, even if that takes several years. Ukrainians do not fear a long war but an inconclusive one that reignites in five or ten years. They want to settle this conflict with Russia once and for all, and see NATO membership as the only way to prevent it from happening again. For US policymakers, the dangers arising from the war overshadow opportunities. One opportunity is a Russian defeat that can serve both as a brake against further Kremlin aggression and as a catalyst for Russia to possibly change her imperial identity. Another opportunity is the chance to strengthen NATO’s conventional forces and geographic position to give it an overwhelming advantage against any possible future Russian aggression. For that to happen, Ukraine must enter the alliance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

30. Assessing Realist and Liberal Explanations for the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author:
Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
Many commentators have claimed that the Russo-Ukrainian War invalidates or refutes core aspects of realist international relations (IR) theory. However, the opposite is the case: many realists correctly predicted the war, and realism offers a compelling explanation for its causes, while explanations based on liberal IR theory are weak and often inconsistent with the evidence. By focusing on factors like the balance of power and the security dilemma, the realist explanation for the Russo-Ukrainian War emphasizes Russian security concerns in the face of NATO expansion and Western-sponsored regime change. Liberal explanations, by focusing on the internal attributes of states and their decision-makers, instead attribute the war to the pathologies of the Russian government. The dominant liberal narratives regarding the causes of the war are that Russian President Vladimir Putin has always been intent on reincorporating Ukraine into Russia and/or that the democratic example set by post-Maidan Ukraine would threaten President Putin’s own autocratic rule at home. Neither of these explanations stand up to scrutiny. For decades, a long list of policymakers, diplomats, and scholars warned against Western encroachment on Russia’s borders and cautioned that a crisis like the current war could erupt due to continued NATO enlargement. These predictions are consistent with realist theory and the explanations for the war offered by realists. Liberal IR theory encourages a crusading, messianic, and highly militarized foreign policy that consistently produces outcomes inimical to U.S. interests. Realist IR theory offers a better framework through which to understand international politics and encourages a more prudent foreign policy that defends fundamental U.S. security interests while avoiding unnecessary conflicts with other powers.
Topic:
International Relations, Realism, Liberalism, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine