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1. Electoral Offensive: Taliban Planning for Afghanistan's 2014 National Elections

Author:
Antonio Giustozzi and Casey Garret Johnson
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Taliban have more resources and are better organized to disrupt Afghanistan's 2014 national elections than was the case in any of the country's last four elections. Still, there are disagreements between insurgent leaders about carrying out a campaign of violence and intimidation. One group, led by Akhtar Mansur and tied to the Quetta Shura, favored, at least for some time, a more conciliatory approach and in the spring met informally with Afghan government officials to discuss allowing the polls to go forward. Another Group, led by Taliban military commander Zakir and the Peshawar Shura, favors disrupting the election. These upper-level divisions may have little consequence on the ground since rank-and-file fighters are either vowing to carry out attacks regardless or, as has happened in the past, may strike local deals with political entities to look the other way and allow voting to take place.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

2. Trends in Militancy across South Asia

Author:
Thomas M. Sanderson, Rick "Ozzie" Nelson, Stephanie Sanok Kostro, Zachary I. Fellman, and Rob Wise
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The bulk of international counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and related efforts over the last decade have focused on targeting a select few extremist organizations such as al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. Yet looming security transitions, international fiscal strictures, demographic trends, religious and ethnic tensions, popular dissatisfaction, and weak governance are likely having significant and worrying effects on a wide array of militant actors around the world. A narrow focus on those groups perceived to be the most immediate threats has, at times, come at the cost of a broader understanding of militancy and how it may manifest in a given region.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Taliban

3. Afghanistan's Civil Order Police

Author:
Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In 2006, a day of deadly riots in Kabul dramatized the need for an Afghan constabulary force capable of controlling outbreaks of urban violence. In response, the U.S. military and Afghan authorities created an elite gendarmerie, the Afghanistan National Civil Order Police (ANCOP). Although ANCOP was conceived of as a riot control force, it was assigned to the Focused District Development Program to replace district-level Afghan Uniformed Police who were away for training. The high demand and constant transfers required by this duty resulted in rates of attrition among ANCOP units of 75 to 80 percent. In 2010, ANCOP's superior training, firepower, and mobility were recognized in its assignment, along with a “surge” of U.S. military forces, to reverse the Taliban's hold on key areas in southern Afghanistan. In heavy fighting in Marja, Helmand province, ANCOP was demonstrably unprepared to serve as a counterinsurgency force, particularly in areas that had not been cleared by coalition and Afghan military forces. Subsequent improvements in training and partnering with U.S. forces improved ANCOP's performance in Kandahar, where ANCOP was used to hold areas that had been cleared by the military. By 2011, ANCOP had firmly established its place as an elite rapid reaction and counterinsurgency force with a positive reputation among coalition troops and Afghan citizens.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

4. Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Insecure Environments: Learning from Afghanistan

Author:
Mark Sedra, Major Gen (ret.) Andrew Mackay, and Geoff Burt
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Security Sector Management
Institution:
Centre for Security Sector Management
Abstract:
The uneven impact of security sector reform (SSR) in Afghanistan, despite nearly a decade-long commitment and billions of dollars invested, demonstrates the immense and perhaps insurmountable challenge of effectively implementing the process amidst an active conflict. The SSR model was largely developed for post-conflict and post-authoritarian environments featuring favorable political conditions for reform. In Afghanistan, the SSR project and the Bonn political dispensation has faced progressively greater levels of violence with each passing year, reaching the level of a full-blown war covering large parts of the country by 2008. In the absence of a genuine political settlement with the Taliban and other stakeholders, the SSR process has been conceived of and applied as a means to confront the growing insurgency, rather than as part of a larger state building and democratization project, as it was intended. It is difficult to imagine a more inhospitable environment for SSR than the one that confronted Afghan and international state builders in the wake of the Taliban's ouster in late 2001. Over two decades of intense civil war left little institutional infrastructure and human capacity to build upon; public attitudes toward the state and security sector were marked by mistrust and suspicion; and insecurity, whether caused by insurgent activity, crime or inter-communal violence was widespread.
Topic:
Security and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Taliban

5. Staying Power: The U.S. Mission in Afghanistan beyond 2011

Author:
Michael O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Nine years ago, the United States worked with Afghanistan's Northern Alliance to overthrow the Taliban government in Kabul. The world was united, the cause for war was clear, and U.S. President George W. Bush enjoyed the support of roughly 90 percent of Americans. That was a long time ago. Today, the war in Afghanistan is a controversial conflict: fewer than half of Americans support the ongoing effort, even as roughly 100,000 U.S. troops are in harm's way. Troops from more than 40 countries still make up the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), but fewer than ten of those countries take substantial risks with their forces in the turbulent south and east of the country. And as the Netherlands prepares to depart Afghanistan this year and Canada remains committed to doing so in 2011, two of these coalition partners will likely soon be gone. Meanwhile, support for the coalition among Afghans has declined to less than 50 percent from highs of 80-90 percent early in the decade. Over the years, the U.S. mission has lost much of its clarity of purpose. Although voters and policymakers in the United States and elsewhere remain dedicated to denying al Qaeda safe haven in Afghanistan, they have begun debating whether a Taliban takeover would necessarily mean al Qaeda's return; whether al Qaeda really still seeks an Afghan sanctuary, as it did a decade ago; and whether U.S. forces could contain any future al Qaeda presence through the kinds of drone strikes now commonly employed in Pakistan. The most pressing question is whether the current strategy can work -- in particular, whether a NATO-led military presence of nearly 150,000 troops is consistent with Afghan mores and whether the government of President Hamid Karzai is up to the challenge of governing and keeping order in such a diverse, fractious land.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, America, Taliban, Netherlands, and Kabul

6. From the Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan

Author:
Sheri Berman
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
SHERI BERMAN is Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University. In December 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama announced the fruits of his administration's lengthy review of Afghanistan policy: temporary troop reinforcements and a new military strategy designed to reverse recent gains by the Taliban, efforts to increase the quality of Afghan governance, and a stronger partnership with Pakistan. The troop increases and the proposed withdrawal starting date of July 2011 dominated the headlines, but in the long run the effects of what Obama called a "civilian surge" will be even more important.
Topic:
Security and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

7. The Future of Peacekeeping Operations: Fighting Political Fatigue and Overstretch

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
In the last sixth months, NATO and the UN have both confronted the possibility that their largest individual peace operations may fail. In Afghanistan, NATO troops have struggled to contain the Taliban. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) the UN was unable to halt rebel attacks that displaced as many as 250,000 people last September.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Taliban and Democratic Republic of the Congo

8. Arguing Afghanistan: what the detractors of NATO's mission get wrong

Author:
Patrick Keller
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Over the last few years, Afghanistan has become less stable and less secure. There were more than 2,000 civilian casualties in 2008 - more than in any other year since the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001, and an increase by 40% in comparison to 2007. Coalition forces suffered 294 casualties in 2008, also the highest number so far. This is the direct consequence of a rise in Taliban and insurgent activity, mostly in eastern and southern Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban

9. The Afghan Impasse

Author:
Ivan Konovalov
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
Developments demonstrate that the resumed active operations in Afghanistan have failed to bring about a decisive turning point in the war for either side. The NATO coalition forces and the Afghan army didn't let the Taliban take over the initiative or stage even a single serious operation. They also managed to eliminate several influential field commanders. At the same time, Taliban groups have retained their combat potential and continue delivering harassing strikes at most unexpected locations. Suffice it to mention the insurgent attack on April 27 of this year during a military parade in Kabul. It is a stalemate. The time works for the Taliban, while the allies have to modify their strategy.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Taliban

10. Space Weaponization and Canada-U.S. Relations: Lessons from Australia

Author:
Steve Buchta
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Woodrow Wilson School Journal of Public and International Affairs
Institution:
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
Abstract:
Since the end of World War II, Canadian security policy has maintained a highly adaptive quality. New circumstances and emerging threats have continually challenged the evolutionary capacity of the Canadian military. The repeated success of Canada's defense can be attributed to a sound capacity to anticipate security needs, generate appropriate approaches to combat and foster strategic partnerships with close allies. Now more than ever Canada must modernize its security policy. Major players in global politics have largely finished reshaping the post-Cold War geo-strategic environment. Most notably, the United States has taken an assertive role in the fight against terrorism. In this stasis of new global order, Canada has aligned itself with NATO members to combat the Taliban in Afghanistan and has been committed to implementing the Canada-U.S. 2001 Smart Border Declaration. Clearly, Canada has demonstrated a sovereign interest in building closer security relations with the United States.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Climate Change, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Canada, Taliban, and Australia