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271. Virtuality, Perception and Reality in Myanmar's Democratic Reform

Author:
Victoria Christensen
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Since the summer of 2011, the country of Myanmar has been experiencing rapid democratic reform. Headlines lauding these positive changes have become commonplace in the international media. However, experts and academics who have been involved in the decade-long campaign to bring peace and democracy to Myanmar remain divided over how sincere these changes are. Some accuse the Government of carrying out “window-dressing” reforms to please the Western governments and enable the lifting of sanctions. They argue that the Government has a vested interest in maintaining the reins of power and that there is no incentive to make true democratic reforms. During a speech in Oslo in June 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmarese Pro-democracy leader described the recent reforms as positive but warned against blind faith in the process and pointed out the main challenges that remain unresolved – namely the ethnic issues and the ongoing imprisonment of political prisoners.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Human Rights, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Tehran, and Kobani

272. Reassessing China: Awaiting Xi Jinping

Author:
William Overholt
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In the Hu Jintao era (2002–2012) China's politics, economics, and national security policies have changed almost beyond recognition. The ongoing transformation has been largely obscured by images that dominate many Western minds: Manichean democrats see a jasmine revolution waiting to happen; hedge fund managers see a gigantic bubble waiting to burst; national security executives see China as having perfected an enduring, dynamic state capitalism with Leninist political management that threatens to overwhelm us. These contradictory images share one thing: lacking roots in Chinese reality, they project the hopes and fears of their respective believers. Two decades ago, when writing The Rise of China, I could confidently predict Chinese success based on Deng Xiaoping's emulation of similar policies in South Korea and Taiwan. After three decades of that success, China's future is far less certain today
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and South Korea

273. At a Time of Uncertainty, Count on North Korea

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
There was a brief period during the past four months –16 days to be precise – when it looked like a breakthrough was possible in the longstanding nuclear stalemate with North Korea; then Pyongyang reverted to form. Shortly after pledging to freeze all nuclear and missile tests, Pyongyang announced a satellite launch, pulling the rug out from under Washington (and itself) and business as usual (or unusual) returned to the Peninsula. The announcement also cast a shadow over the second Nuclear Security Summit hosted by Seoul while providing additional rationale for Washington's “pivot” toward Asia.
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Washington, Taiwan, Beijing, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang

274. Post-Election Continuity

Author:
David G. Brown
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In January, President Ma Ying-jeou won re-election and the KMT retained its majority in the legislature. Voters endorsed Ma's gradual approach to developing constructive relations with the Mainland. In Beijing, the outcome validated President Hu's “peaceful development” policies. Both sides have indicated there will be continuity in cross-strait relations with a focus on a busy economic agenda. While understanding the domestic factors constraining Ma's willingness to discuss political issues, Beijing has emphasized the importance of building political trust and strengthening a common Chinese heritage. Meanwhile, the DPP's defeat has provoked an internal debate on the party's policy toward Beijing but no clear picture has emerged on whether or how party policy might eventually change.
Topic:
Disaster Relief
Political Geography:
China and Taiwan

275. Taiwan: Crisis Deferred, But Maybe Not For Long

Author:
Denny Roy
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Taiwan's elections on January 14, which for the first time combined polls for the presidency and the legislature, displayed further positive evolution in Taiwan's now well-established democracy. The results also precluded an immediate disruption in relations between Taiwan and the PRC, which is good news in Washington. In Beijing's view, however, the goal is not stability across the Taiwan Strait, but unification. Chinese impatience might weigh more heavily on President Ma Ying-jeou, and by extension on the United States, during Ma's second term.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia

276. Breaking with the Past? Civil-Military Relations in the Emerging Democracies of East Asia

Author:
Aurel Croissant, David Kuehn, and Philip Lorenz
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In recent decades, several East Asian nations have undergone democratic transitions accompanied by changes in the balance of power between civilian elites and military leaders. These developments have not followed a single pattern: In Thailand, failure to institutionalize civilian control has contributed to the breakdown of democracy; civil-military relations and democracy in the Philippines are in prolonged crisis; and civilian control in Indonesia is yet to be institutionalized. At the same time, South Korea and Taiwan have established civilian supremacy and made great advances in consolidating democracy. These differences can be explained by the interplay of structural environment and civilian political entrepreneurship. In Taiwan, Korea, and Indonesia, strategic action, prioritization, and careful timing helped civilians make the best of their structural opportunities to overcome legacies of military involvement in politics. In Thailand, civilians overestimated their ability to control the military and provoked military intervention. In the Philippines, civilian governments forged a symbiotic relationship with military elites that allowed civilians to survive in office but also protected the military's institutional interests. These differences in the development of civil-military relations had serious repercussions on national security, political stability, and democratic consolidation, helping to explain why South Korea, Taiwan, and, to a lesser degree, Indonesia have experienced successful democratic transformation, while Thailand and the Philippines have failed to establish stable democratic systems.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Israel, Taiwan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia

277. Armed Clash in the South China Sea

Author:
Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is significant. China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines have competing territorial and jurisdictional claims, particularly over rights to exploit the region's possibly extensive reserves of oil and gas. Freedom of navigation in the region is also a contentious issue, especially between the United States and China over the right of U.S. military vessels to operate in China's two-hundred-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). These tensions are shaping—and being shaped by—rising apprehensions about the growth of China's military power and its regional intentions. China has embarked on a substantial modernization of its maritime paramilitary forces as well as naval capabilities to enforce its sovereignty and jurisdiction claims by force if necessary. At the same time, it is developing capabilities that would put U.S. forces in the region at risk in a conflict, thus potentially denying access to the U.S. Navy in the western Pacific.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Oil, Natural Resources, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
United States, China, Malaysia, Israel, Taiwan, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and Brunei

278. Politics and the London 2012 Olympics: the (in)security Games

Author:
Barrie Houlihan and Richard Giulianotti
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Concerns with security and risk have been prominent themes at the modern Olympic Games since at least the 1960s. However, a heightened perception of insecurity and risk has emerged as the leitmotiv of the Olympic Games in recent years, especially since 2001. Insecurity became the dominant discourse of the 2012 Games when the announcement in July 2005 by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) that London had been selected as the host city was over shadowed by the '7/7' terrorist attacks on the London transport system the following day. The hosting by London of the Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2012 brings into sharp relief two significant developments: first, the consolidation of the Olympic Games as a significant arena for national and global politics; and second, the extent to which cities have re-emerged as major targets for hostile attack.
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and London

279. The Mystery of Phantom States

Author:
Daniel Byman and Charles King
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In almost every region of the globe, there is a phantom state hovering like an apparition among the more corporeal members of the international system. Some of their names sound like the warring kingdoms of a fantasy novel: Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Nagorno—Karabakh and the Dniester Moldovan Republic. Others, such as Gaza/Palestine, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, or Taiwan, dominate the headlines. These polities look like real countries to their inhabitants, who salute their flags and vote in their elections. Some even field armies, issue visas, and collect taxes. But they are largely invisible to international legal institutions, multilateral organizations, and global trade regimes. The reason is that they lack formal recognition, or what a political scientist would call ''external sovereignty.''
Political Geography:
Turkey, Taiwan, and Cyprus

280. How Not to Play the Blame Game of Cross-Strait Relations

Author:
Christopher R. Hughes
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The discussion of cross-Strait relations is so politicised that it may be impossible for academics to take a neutral stand. No matter how hard they might try, sympathies will always be revealed by signs such as whether they dare to call the elected leader of Taiwan its 'president', or whether the other side of the Taiwan Strait is deemed to be 'China' or 'the mainland'. Maybe the best way to get a balanced view, then, is to compare one book leaning to the pan-Blue side of the political spectrum, that is sympathetic towards the claim that Taiwan is part of China, with one that leans towards the 'pan-Green' preference of seeing the island as a separate nation-state. After that, test the different perspectives against a more conventional historical narrative.
Political Geography:
China and Taiwan