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1411. Preventing Iran and Hizballah from Filling the Void in Lebanon

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The March 8 mass rally in Beirut, organized by Hizballah to counter the popular Lebanese opposition movement, serves as a reminder that establishing genuine freedom and democracy in Lebanon will require more than a Syrian withdrawal. Whereas the opposition, backed by strong international and regional sentiment, focuses on rejecting Syria's occupation, Hizballah focuses on rejecting international interference in Lebanese affairs. Yet, if Iran and Hizballah are permitted to fill the void created by a Syrian departure, Lebanon will continue to be subjected to such foreign interference. Such a development would also increase the potential for escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli front, with possible regional spillover. Accordingly, while encouraging the ongoing historic events in Lebanon and pushing for an end to Syrian domination, the international community should not neglect two other key implications of UN Security Council Resolution 1559: ending the Iranian presence and disarming Hizballah.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

1412. A Long Road to Damascus. Syria and the Peace Negotiations with Israel

Author:
Marwa Daoudy
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
From 1991 to 2000, Syria and Israel, two of the key actors of the Middle-Eastern conflict, entered into extensive peace negotiations. What lessons can be drawn from the process in terms of Syria's objectives, motivations and perceptions, considering that this actor remains largely unknown? Such concerns will be addressed by identifying the major issues at stake: territory, security, and water resources. By analyzing all the obstacles on the road to peace, we will evaluate the potential for a resumption of peace talks in the new regional context. The death of President Hafez al-Asad in June 2000 and the rise to power of his son Bashar, the deterioration of the Israeli-Palestinian situation since the start of the Intifada and Ariel Sharon's election in Israel, the war launched by the United States in Iraq, the assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005, and the meeting of the 10th Baath Party Congress in June have all drastically impacted on domestic and regional dynamics. The purpose of the study is to shed new light on Syria's constraints and opportunities, and their impact on her bargaining position.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Damascus

1413. The Syria Accountability Act Taking the Wrong Road to Damascus

Author:
Claude Salhani
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
On December 12, 2003, President Bush signed into law the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003, a law designed to pressure Syrian president Bashar Assad's government to work more aggressively in fighting terrorism at home and abroad. Implementation of the new measures, which combine punitive economic sanctions with diplomatic pressure, threatens to escalate into a new conflict in the Middle East. Some influential people in Washington welcomed such a confrontation, believing that it would lead to regime change in Damascus similar to the one that was effected in neighboring Iraq.
Topic:
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1414. Syria Under Bashar (I): Foreign Policy Challenges

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since the end of the Iraq war, Washington and Damascus have been locked in a dialogue of the deaf. U.S. policy has been reduced to a series of demands and threats. Syrian policy, with President Bashar still struggling to formulate and implement a coherent strategy, has been mainly wait-and-see – offering a few concessions and hoping to weather the storm while refusing to relinquish what it sees as trump cards (support for Hizbollah and radical Palestinian groups) so long as the conflict with Israel continues. Despite the current deadlock, however, the current regional situation presents an opportunity for an intensive, U.S.-led diplomatic effort to revive the Israeli-Syrian peace process and thereby achieve significant changes in Syrian policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

1415. Syria Under Bashar (II): Domestic Policy Challenges

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bashar al-Assad's presidency has failed to live up to the hopes for far-reaching domestic reform that greeted it in 2000. After a brief opening, Syria clamped down on dissent, and economic change remains painfully slow. Many who once viewed Bashar as a potential partner, open-minded, and Western-oriented, now perceive him as, if anything, more ideological than and just as tied to the Baathist regime as his father. Both assessments are overly simplistic and poor guides to dealing with a Syria that is at a crossroads. Syrian officials hint at significant steps in mid-2004, including possible changes in the Baath Party hierarchy and doctrine and moves toward a more open and inclusive political system. Scepticism is in order, as such pledges have repeatedly been made in the past only to be ignored. But with reform now a strategic imperative, Syria should turn hints into reality and the international community should find ways to encourage and to assist it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Arabia and Syria

1416. The household water crisis in Syria's Greater Damascus Region'

Author:
Elie Elhadj
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Damascus residents talk in recent years of long periods of daily water shut-offs for most months especially between June and the following January. “ In 2001 … stringent water rationing was in force in Damascus… the authorities … shut off the capital's piped water supply for 20 hours each day (compared with 16 hours previously) from July of that year. Europa Publications (2002: p.979).”
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Environment, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Syria

1417. Political Conditionality of Economic Interactions in the Middle East; Turkey's Relations with Iran, Iraq, and Syria

Author:
Mustafa Aydin and Damla Aras
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
The political logic (i.e., political perceptions of the ruling elite in a given country and nature of the political relations with other countries) determines economic activity, not the other way around, among the proto-capitalist states of the Middle East. As the political ties has primacy in the region in determining the course of economic relations, even market oriented democratic (or quasi-democratic) countries have to accept the prominence of political-strategic relations when dealing with such states. This paper will examine the interrelated fluctuation of trade and political tensions between Turkey and its immediate Middle Eastern neighbours - Iran, Iraq, and Syria. It will highlight the political determinants of the relationship between these countries; will discuss the role of the US as the independent variable; and will assess the possible effects of the emergence of Justice and Development Party government in Turkey on country's political and economic relations with its Middle Eastern neighbours.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1418. When Minorities Rule in the Middle East (Part I): Syria

Author:
Ammar Abdulhamid
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When discussing the topic of "minority rule," it is worth remembering that all dictatorships in fact are a form of minority rule, whether it be ethnic, religious, or bureaucratic. Once a minority establishes control over a nation, a crisis of legitimacy for the government will naturally arise. However, after the initial crisis fades, the main objective of those rulers is to establish representative coalitions that function under their control and rules. The norm is that nearly everybody is eventually represented within a system of parochial interests. In order to democratize one cannot champion the cause of the majority, but must instead champion the cause of civic education and citizenship -- otherwise, the country will fall into the trap of sectarian politics.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

1419. Manipulating Lebanon's Constitution: Bashar al-Asad's Dangerous Game

Author:
Eyal Zisser
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the face of international criticism, Syria strong-armed Lebanon into accepting a constitutional amendment last week that would extend the term of the sitting Lebanese president, Emile Lahoud. Yet, far from being a sign of Damascus's strength against foreign intrusion, this episode should be viewed as further confirmation of the immature leadership of Syrian president Bashar al-Asad.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1420. Sanctioning Syria: A Moment of Opportunity

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since March 8, 2004, Syria has witnessed an unprecedented series of riots by Kurds and protests by human rights activists and intellectuals. These developments set the stage for the Bush administration's imminent announcement about imposing sanctions in accordance with the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria