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1321. Breaking Stalemates on Iran and Syria at the IAEA

Author:
Gregory Schulte
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Mohamed ElBaradei will end his twelve years as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in November. Absent a last-minute breakthrough, ElBaradei will leave incomplete the critical safeguards investigations of Iran and Syria. Earlier this month, ElBaradei reported to the IAEA Board of Governors little or no progress on either the six-year probe of Iran's nuclear activities or the more recent probe of Syria's clandestine cooperation with North Korea. ElBaradei reported that Tehran continues to enrich uranium, in violation of IAEA and UN Security Council requirements, and despite any obvious domestic energy demand. Tehran also continues to deny to IAEA inspectors access to information, people, and sites to verify the "peaceful" nature of Iran's nuclear activities.
Topic:
Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Arab Countries, and Syria

1322. Rejectionists Readying to Counter U.S. Peace Push

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With rumors in the air of a U.S.-brokered, mid-September meeting between Israeli and Palestinian leaders, various regional actors are busy positioning themselves for the coming round of diplomacy. Analysis of these dynamics provides some useful perspective on the road ahead, beyond the usual focus on the minutiae of settlement construction, prisoner exchanges, or other immediate concerns.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

1323. Reclaiming Israeli-Syrian Talks

Author:
Ufuk Ulutaş
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Israeli-Syrian track has been an important component of the Arab-Israeli peace talks due to its integral role in reaching comprehensive peace in the Middle East. The latest round of indirect peace talks between Israel and Syria was initiated under the sponsorship of Turkey on May 21, 2008, and by the end of 2008 both sides were ready to start the direct talks. However, in protest of Israeli aerial and ground offensive in Gaza in December 2008, Syria halted the indirect talks with Israel. Several factors, including the lack of American endorsement; Olmert's weak prospect in Israel due to the ongoing corruption investigation; approaching early elections, and the rise of rightist parties in Israel, topped by the Israeli offensive in Gaza, rendered the conciliation efforts futile.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Syria

1324. Reshuffling The Cards? (II): Syria's New Hand

Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Syria typically, and at times justifiably, brings to mind stagnation and immobility. Yet, over recent years, change has been afoot. In 2008, it agreed to Turkish-mediated talks with Israel. It built ties with the Iraqi government after long depicting it as the offspring of an illegitimate occupation. It began to normalise relations with Lebanon, after years of resisting its claim to sovereignty. It accelerated economic reforms. These steps fall short of being revolutionary; some were imposed rather than chosen and reflected opportunism rather than forward thinking. Still, by Syrian standards, they are quite remarkable, especially in contrast to recent fervent militancy.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and Maryland

1325. Engaging Syria? Lessons from the French Experience

Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
How is one to engage Damascus? As the incoming U.S. administration examines the future of its relationship with Syria, seemingly persuaded that an improvement in bilateral ties and an Israeli-Syrian agreement could fundamentally modify the regional landscape, France's recent experience offers useful lessons. Determined to engage in dialogue - but also ready to break off if the other side was uncooperative - and creative in approach, while fixing it within a clearly defined framework of objectives, President Sarkozy also knew how to seize on unexpected opportunities when they presented themselves.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Syria

1326. Obama's Foreign Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

Author:
F. Stephen Larrabee
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Obama's election represents an important opportunity to put US- Turkish relations on a new, more cooperative footing. On many issues – especially those related to the Middle East – Obama's positions overlap or closely coincide with those of Turkey more than the policies pursued by the Bush administration. This is particularly true regarding Iran and Syria, which should help to reduce these issues as irritants in US-Turkish relations. The critical question mark is what position Obama will take regarding the Armenian genocide resolution, which is likely to be reintroduced in Congress in 2009. Passage of the resolution could deal a severe blow to prospects for putting US-Turkish relations on a new, more stable footing as well as undermine recent efforts at promoting Turkish-Armenian reconciliation that have opened up since President Gul's historic visit to Yerevan in September
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1327. Charting Turkish Diplomacy in the Gaza Conflict

Author:
Selin M. Bolme
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
On December 27, 2008, Israel launched a deadly attack on Gaza. Turkey responded immediately to the Israeli attacks and strongly criticized the operation. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan embarked on a tour of Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to garner support for an immediate ceasefire. Turkey's active diplomacy in the Gaza crisis is an indication of Turkey's new foreign policy vision and a self-confidence consolidated by strengthening relations with regional powers. Turkey's proactive policy in the region does not suggest that it will discontinue its relations with one side or the other. In fact, this supposition is marked by the old belief that Turkish foreign policy has a single axis or dimension. By observing the balance of power and keeping all actors involved in the process, Ankara has a greater chance of finding a just and sustainable solution to the Palestinian problem.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Israel, South Africa, Gaza, Syria, Egypt, and Jordan

1328. Engaging Syria? U.S. Constraints and Opportunities

Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Candidate Obama pledged that his Middle East policy would include re-engagement with Syria; President Obama will find that the past is not easily overcome. The reasons behind his vow remain pertinent. Syria holds important cards in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine, is Iran's most important Arab ally and has substantial influence over Hamas and Hizbollah. There are indications of potential common ground on which to build, from resuming Israeli-Syrian negotiations, to consolidating progress in Iraq to blunting the rise of jihadi militancy and sectarianism. But significant obstacles to healthy, mutually beneficial relations remain, along with a legacy of estrangement and distrust. They dictate the need for a prudent approach that seeks first to rebuild ties and restore confidence. It will be critical to reassure Damascus that the U.S. is interested in improving relations and resolving the Israeli-Arab conflict, not in regime change. It is also equally critical not to compromise on core principles such as Lebanon's sovereignty or the integrity of the international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1329. The Missing Peaces

Author:
Michael D. Bell, Daniel C. Kurtzer, and Prem G. Kumar
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
To resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, policymakers will have to develop a new regime for Jerusalem's Old City. Striking an Israeli-Syrian deal that draws Damascus away from Tehran is also essential, but it will be harder than it appears.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Syria

1330. Defending the Golan Heights

Author:
Martin Indyk, Richard Haass, Dore Gold, and Shimon Shapira
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
To the Editor: The achievement of true peace between Israel and Syria is a laudable goal and could be a cornerstone of regional security. Unfortunately, in making the case for an Israeli-Syrian accord, Richard Haass and Martin Indyk ("Beyond Iraq," January/February 2009) misrepresent the proposals made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Syria during his term in office, from 1996 to 1999. They assert that Netanyahu offered a "full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights" to Syrian President Hafez al-Assad.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Syria