Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Syria

1301. Internal Divisions among Iranian Hardliners Come to the Fore

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During an August 9 visit to Syria, Ali Akbar Velayati, influential advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stated that Iran is ready to negotiate with the United States regarding its nuclear program. Yesterday, however, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast announced that Iran has no plans for bilateral negotiation with Washington. These and other conflicting signals point to deep internal divisions among former allies in Iran's hardline camp. Such divisions are part of a longstanding pattern in the Islamic Republic: as soon as one faction seizes power by cutting out its opponents, it splits into warring parties.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Syria

1302. Regional Energy Equations and Turkish Foreign Policy: The Middle East and the CIS

Author:
Tuncay Babalı
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Turkey has become an important east-west and north-south gas and oil transit route and an energy hub, thanks to the Turkish straits, and the existing and proposed pipelines that run through its territory. Economic opportunities, however, can present diplomatic liabilities. In a tough and complicated region, Turkey finds itself caught between the interests of competing superpowers and regional players. As the world's 16th largest economy, Turkey's thirst for energy will only increase. Satisfying this thirst requires not only diversification of sources and routes, but also good relations with all neighbors, in addition to traditional partners. An analysis of Ankara's options and new foreign policy vision shows that Turkey has little choice but to use greater caution and engagement. Following its own national interests and security concerns will drive Turkey to new openings in Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia and other CIS countries. Energy will be one of the main pillars of Turkey's policy of engagement and integration in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Armenia, and Syria

1303. A Third Lebanon War: CPA Contingency Planning

Author:
Daniel C. Kurtzer
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Lebanon has been a flashpoint for Arab-Israeli violence and military confrontations since the mid1970s. Its political system is weak and outside parties continue to vie for political advantage as part of a larger regional conflict. In particular, Syria and Iran provide support for the militant Islamist group Hezbollah as a strategic asset to pressure Israel. Hezbollah now controls most of southern Lebanon, while its political wing has developed a strong presence in the Lebanese parliament. In July and August 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought what became known as the “Second Lebanon War,” which killed and displaced many thousand s of people and destroyed much of Lebanon's infrastructure. Since then Hezbollah has steadily rearmed in contravention of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which requires, inter alia, “the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state” and “no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its government.” Hezbollah's arsenal is more potent in quantity and quality today than it was in 2006. Although the border area between Israel and Lebanon is quieter than at any time in the previous decade, speculation that a third Lebanon war will occur in the next twelve to eighteen months has been steadily rising. Israel could decide the security threat posed by Hezbollah has reached intolerable levels and take preemptive military action. Hezbollah, while outwardly showing no interest in confronting Israel at this time, may for various reasons choose or be pressured by Iran to flex its new military capabilities. As happened in 2006, even small-scale military engagements with limited objectives can escalate into a major conflict. Whatever the precipitating reasons, a new conflict over Lebanon would have significant implications for U.S. policy and interests in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, War, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, United Nations, Lebanon, and Syria

1304. The "new" Turkish foreign policy and its implications for Norwegian peacebuilding

Author:
Jean-Paul Marthoz
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This paper is based on interviews with diplomats, experts and political analysts and provides an overview of Turkey's foreign policy, particularly in relation to peacebuilding. In the past year, Turkey has moved to the centre stage on the international scene. After making the headlines with its joint mediation initiative with Brazil on Iran's nuclear issue, in May Ankara clashed with Israel over the storming of the Gaza-bound “humanitarian flotilla”. Suddenly all eyes were on a country situated in this most turbulent and strategic region of the world – a country that had appeared at least until recently to be a reliable and predictable ally of the West, and of Israel. However, the country's actions and reactions should not have come as a surprise. Over the past ten years Turkey has been busy developing a very active foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East and Central Asia. It has reached out to countries traditionally considered as adversaries, such as Russia, Iran and Syria. Ankara has also not been afraid to express its differences and diverge from the West on certain issues, from Cyprus to Armenia to Palestine.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Palestine, Armenia, Syria, and Cyprus

1305. Tentative Jihad: Syria's Fundamentalist Opposition

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Prematurely and exaggeratedly highlighted by the regime, belatedly and reluctantly acknowledged by the opposition, the presence of a powerful Salafi strand among Syria's rebels has become irrefutable. That is worrisome, but forms only part of a complex picture. To begin, not all Salafis are alike; the concept covers a gamut ranging from mainstream to extreme. Secondly, present-day Syria offers Salafis hospitable terrain – violence and sectarianism; disenchantment with the West, secular leaders and pragmatic Islamic figures; as well as access to Gulf Arab funding and jihadi military knowhow – but also adverse conditions, including a moderate Islamic tradition, pluralistic confessional make-up, and widespread fear of the kind of sectarian civil war that engulfed two neighbours. Thirdly, failure of the armed push this past summer caused a backlash against Salafi groups that grabbed headlines during the fighting.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1306. Lübnan 2010

Author:
Filiz Cicioğlu
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Lebanon, one of the most problematic countries in the Middle East for many years, has spent the year 2010 as more active foreign policy compared the previous years. After the parliamentary elections in 2009 and the establishment of the government, domestic political stability has been somewhat secured. The most important subject of the do-mestic agenda was the expectation of the decision of Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Although the decision was not made in 2010, this issue was one of the most debated issues among both groups within the country and their supporters abroad. The new government headed by Saad Hariri who tried to follow an active foreign policy has continued its efforts to establish close relations with regional countries. In this context the relations between Turkey and Lebanon is important. In 2010 besides Turkey, Iran emerged as an important partner. Another important development in foreign policy was warming relations with Syria. In addition to this, the visit of President Bashar al-Assad and Sau-di King Abdullah was a significant foreign policy development in 2010. Turkey, Syria and Jordan, Lebanon initiated an integration process. In Israeli border, a conflict has occurred in 2010, but the event has been stopped before getting greater.
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

1307. The Jordan River Dilemma: A Basic Game Theoretical Approach

Author:
Maurice R. Wingo
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
Fresh water resources are scarce in Jordan, Palestine, Syria and Israel. The situation is expected to worsen in these countries as they expand by population and economy. Regional water scarcity and the resulting overdrafting of the Jordan River can be framed and analyzed in a Game Theory (GT) framework. An existing GT study of the Nile River Basin can act as a principle example and reference. The goal of this essay is to better understand how we can save a dying Jordan River, and possibly achieve a more efficient regional water diversion scheme.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Scarcity, and Game Theory
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and Jordan Valley

1308. Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament: 2009-2010 Report Card

Author:
Peter Crail
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The study, Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament: 2009-2010 Report Card gives grades to China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, India, Israel, Pakistan—each of which possess nuclear weapons—and North Korea—which maintains a nuclear weapons capability—as well as Iran and Syria, which are under investigation for possible nuclear weapons-related activity.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Iran, India, Israel, North Korea, France, Syria, and United States of America

1309. Iraq, its Neighbors, and the Obama Administration: Syrian and Saudi Perspectives

Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The top concern for both Riyadh and Damascus remains blowback from Iraq: the ascendance of ethnic and sectarian identity and the spread of Islamist militancy. The need to contain this threat is the dominant force that shapes their relations with Iraq. Both Syria and Saudi Arabia have a vital interest in ensuring that Iraq's emerging political order is inclusive of Sunni Arab Iraqis, who have not yet been fully incorporated into Iraqi institutions. Syria and Saudi Arabia do not look at Iraq in isolation, nor do they assign it top priority among their foreign policy concerns. For them, Iraq is merely one element in a comprehensive view encompassing other regional players (including the U.S. and Iran) and other regional crises, particularly the Arab-Israeli conflict. Lingering resentment and bitterness toward Washington is now mixed with intense curiosity and modest optimism about President Barack Obama. Saudis still bristle when recalling how the Bush Administration sidelined Riyadh on Iraqi matters; as do Syrians, who believe the previous administration was intent on isolating and undermining Damascus. Iraq remains very much isolated in its neighborhood. Recent Progress on regional cooperation notwithstanding, these two neighbors are still focused more on containment than engagement.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1310. The Resilience of Authoritarian Rule in Syria under Hafez and Bashar Al-Asad

Author:
Annette Büchs
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper seeks an explanation for the resilience of the Syrian authoritarian regime under Hafez and Bashar Al-Asad. It will be argued that this resilience is to a relevant extent caused by the fact that the regime's “material” as well as “ideational” forms of power share a common element, if not an underlying principle. This generates their compatibility and congruency and thus produces a convergence of forces which manifests in the regime's ability to exceed the mere sum of its individual forms of power. It will be demonstrated that this common principle can be conceptualized as a “tacit pact” between unequal parties, with the weaker party under constant threat of exclusion and/or coercion in the event of noncompliance. It will be argued that inherent in the pact is a high level of ambiguity; this, paradoxically, renders it more effective but at the same time also more instable as a tool of domination.
Topic:
Government, Post Colonialism, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria