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1292. The Perception of Turkey in the Middle East 2010
- Author:
- David Barchard, Gökçe Perçinoğlu, Jonathan Levack, Mensur Akgün, and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- This study contains the results of the second survey conducted by KA Research Limited between August 25th and September 27th 2010 with my contribution and that of TESEV’s researchers. Again, the 2010 survey was conducted in the same seven Arab countries but, unlike 2009, it was also conducted in Iran. In total, 2,267 people were surveyed by telephone or face-to-face. These results show a statistically significant increase in positive opinion of Turkey. Although they are dealt with more thoroughly in the report, there are a few social and thus political findings that are different from the previous year.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, and Jordan
1293. A New Mediterranean Political Landscape? The Arab Spring and Euro-Mediterranean Relations
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring has placed the Mediterranean region at the centre of the international agenda. The popular uprisings that originated in Tunisia soon expected to other countries acquiring a regional dimension. The political processses that have emerged as a consequence of the protests have so far responded to three different dynamics: revolution, repression and reforms. In the first place, in revolutionary countries - such as Tunisia and Egypt - the protests gave put an end to authoritarian regimes and made possible the beginning of a new-born political order. Secondly, repressive regimes - such as Libya and Syria- have spared no efforts to silence criticism and to disperse the protests with excessive use of force, committing mass human rights violations. In the third place, reformist governments - such as Morocco and Jordan - have adopted political reforms in a wise move, giving an evolutionary response to revolutionary demands. With such a wide range of possible scenarios, it necessary to question the validity of the concept of Arab Spring as a regional phenomenon, since it is a term that encompasses national realities of a very different nature.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, Popular Revolt, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arab Countries, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia
1294. Strengthening the IAEA: How the Nuclear Watchdog Can Regain Its Bark
- Author:
- Gregory L. Schulte
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The United States has a great interest in the success of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), given the important role it can play in reducing the risks of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. Stalled investigations of Iran and Syria have put the credibility of the IAEA at stake. The agency detected neither Iran’s hidden uranium enrichment facility near Qom nor the reactor being constructed by Syria near al Kibar. These examples underscore the importance of strengthening the agency’s verification capability, by both increasing its authority and sharing more information. The IAEA can also help shape the global growth of nuclear power, ensuring the highest levels of safety and security, while discouraging the spread of sensitive technologies that can be misused to build nuclear weapons. The IAEA Board of Governors’ recent decision to establish a nuclear fuel bank in Russia is a step in the right direction. Success requires a new “Spirit of Vienna”—a willingness of delegates to work toward consensus on even difficult topics—surrounding the agency’s important role in nonproliferation. It also requires a conscious effort by the new Director General to remove the politics from IAEA business and return the agency to its technical mandate.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Syria, and Vienna
1295. Turkish Foreign Policy in 2009: A Year of Pro-activity
- Author:
- Ufuk Ulutaş
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Since the early 2000s, Turkish foreign policy has experienced a fundamental transformation. Turkey's regional and global position, its relations with the countries in surrounding regions, and its long-lasting disputes with its neighbors were reshaped through the adoption of the "zero-problem with-neighbors" policy. In line with this policy, Turkey has taken a pro-active stance and followed a multi-dimensional foreign policy approach to establish itself, first, as a conciliatory partner for peace with its neighbors, and second, as an agent of mediation between its clashing neighboring countries. 2009 was a year of foreign policy initiatives towards Syria, Armenia, and Iraq, including the Kurdish Regional Government. And it marked the beginning of more positive and constructive relations between Turkey and the United States. Turkey gained substantial ground in becoming a regional hub for energy by undersigning two critical energy deals. Yet, two major issues remain as challenges for Turkish foreign policy: a) the EU accession process, and b) the Cyprus dispute.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, and Syria
1296. Lebanon's Politics: The Sunni Community and Hariri's Future Current
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The June 2009 swearing in as prime minister of Saad Hariri, leader of the Sunni Future Current movement, marks a turning point, the end of a period of exceptional domestic political turbulence and regional tensions that began with the 2005 murder of his father, Rafic; led to institutional paralysis; and culminated with the violent May 2008 showdown between government and opposition. It also presents the new leader with a host of novel challenges. The man who took the helm of a once deeply divided Sunni community must discard much of what enabled his rise, if he is to succeed now that he is in power. With Hizbollah, the principal Shiite movement, he must move away from the sectarianism that has become Lebanon's political stock-and-trade. The Future Current should initiate the process of becoming a more genuine, institutionalised party, breaking from the clientelism that will otherwise inhibit the prime minister's transition from community leader to statesman. And Hariri must continue to navigate the difficult normalisation with Syria, over coming deep mistrust among his constituency toward Damascus.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, Governance, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
1297. US Withdrawal and Iraqi Security Forces: The Need for Continuing Aid
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam Mausner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The security arena will face the most drastic changes in U.S.-Iraqi strategic relations over the next two years. Iraq must assume all responsibility for its internal and external security once the United States withdraws by December 31, 2011, unless it invokes the terms of the Strategic Agreement to seek additional US aid. Iraq must both deal with its own insurgents and with problems in its relations with neighboring countries like Iran, Syria, and the Gulf states. This makes the continued improvement of all elements of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) vital both to Iraq and to the stability of the region, during the period of US withdrawal in 2010-2011 and in the years that follow.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
1298. Lebanon's Evolving Relationship with Syria: Back to the Future or Turning a New Page?
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Lebanon's outreach to Syria is motivated by significant shifts in the regional political landscape, particularly Syria's renewed regional and global influence. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri appears to have made a strategic decision that rapprochement with Syria is in Lebanon's best interest, offering the greatest chance for stability and resolution of a number of outstanding bilateral issues including greater guarantees for Lebanese sovereignty. Syria's renewed influence in Lebanon comes in a variety of forms, but its alliance with Hezbollah is the most potent trajectory of its power and influence. It is too early to determine whether this shift in relations marks a return of Syrian predominance in Lebanon, or signals a new page in the bilateral relationship. Much will depend on how Syria and Lebanon as well as external players—especially the U.S. and France—contend with the inherent challenges and opportunities that accompany evolving Syrian-Lebanese ties. The establishment of Lebanese-Syrian diplomatic ties presents the United States with an important opportunity to help foster normal relations between the neighboring countries, particularly the long-sought goal of protecting Lebanese sovereignty. Washington should move forward with dispatching an ambassador to Damascus as part of a broader engagement with Syria. Establishment of high-level diplomatic channels in Syria will allow the United States to leverage its influence more directly and effectively to ensure that Syria moves forward on border demarcation with Lebanon and other measures to help bolster Lebanese sovereignty.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Lebanon and Syria
1299. Drums of War: Israel and the "Axis of Resistance"
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Of all the explanations why calm has prevailed in the Israeli-Lebanese arena since the end of the 2006 war, the principal one also should be cause for greatest concern: fear among the parties that the next confrontation would be far more devastating and broader in scope. None of the most directly relevant actors – Israel, Hizbollah, Syria and Iran – relishes this prospect, so all, for now, are intent on keeping their powder dry. But the political roots of the crisis remain unaddressed, the underlying dynamics are still explosive, and miscalculations cannot be ruled out. The only truly effective approach is one that would seek to resume – and conclude – meaningful Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Lebanese peace talks. There is no other answer to the Hizbollah dilemma and, for now, few better ways to affect Tehran's calculations. Short of such an initiative, deeper political involvement by the international community is needed to enhance communications between the parties, defuse tensions and avoid costly missteps.
- Topic:
- Islam, Armed Struggle, Hegemony, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
1300. Arming Hizballah? U.S. Military Assistance to Lebanon
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The August 3 fatal shooting of an Israel Defense Forces officer by a Lebanese Armed Forces soldier has sparked debate regarding the utility and wisdom of the U.S. military assistance program to Lebanon. Although such assistance is not new, the program's scope dramatically increased after the 2005 Cedar Revolution ended Syria's thirty-year occupation and swept the Arab world's only pro-Western, democratically elected government to power. In recent months, however, Syrian influence has returned, while Hizballah has secured enough political power to effectively reverse many of the revolution's gains. Even before the August 3 incident, these changes on the ground prompted Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), chair of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, to place a hold on the 2011 assistance package.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Lebanon, and Syria