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1271. Israel's Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring

Author:
Daniel Byman
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Americans took heart as they watched Egyptian demonstrators rally in Tahrir Square and topple the regime of Hosni Mubarak in a peaceful revolution. Next door in Israel, however, the mood was somber: “When some people in the West see what's happening in Egypt, they see Europe 1989,” an Israeli official remarked. “We see it as Tehran 1979.” Political leaders vied to see who could be the most pessimistic, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly warning that it was even possible that “Egypt will go in the direction of Iran,” with the new Cairo government becoming even more dictatorial and lashing out abroad. As he pointed out in remarks to the Knesset, “They too had demonstrations; multitudes filled the town squares. But, of course it progressed in a different way.” As unrest spread from Egypt to Bahrain, Jordan, Syria, and Yemen, the gloom seemed to deepen.
Political Geography:
America, Europe, Iran, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain

1272. A Return of Armies to the Forefront of Arab Politics?

Author:
Philippe Droz-Vincent
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Arab armies are closed and secretive actors. Yet they have been propelled to the fore in 2011, acting as midwifes and active participants in the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt. Their posture vis-à-vis incumbent regimes is crucial in other Arab countries too - Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria - as the wave of popular uprisings against authoritarian regimes has spread. In view of this, there is an essential need to understand what kind of actors Arab armies are. The nature of armies in authoritarian settings shapes the pattern of resilience or of breakdown for regimes facing popular uprisings, and the prospect for various transition countries in the Arab world.
Topic:
Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

1273. How Israel Can Turn the Unrest in the Middle East into an Opportunity for Peacemaking

Author:
Massimiliano Fiore
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Only a few weeks ago, no one could have believed that what the peoples of Tunisia and Egypt accomplished was possible: they defied their dictators and won, causing worldwide euphoria and celebration. Yet, while such activism has inspired fellow Arabs throughout the region, it has been met with fear and trepidation in Israel. Mubarak's downfall, combined with the growing unrest in the Middle East, makes it vital for Israel to recalibrate its strategies toward its neighbouring Arab states. Many political analysts believe that this is the ideal moment for Israel to push hard for resuming the stalled peace process with the Palestinians. Yet it is unrealistic to think that a comprehensive agreement can be reached at this time. While the Israeli-Palestinian peace track is very troubled, the Israeli-Syrian track seems more within reach, and in the vital interests of both countries.
Topic:
Peace Studies and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia

1274. Editorial

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
Since our last issue in May 2011 several events with global impact have filled the newspapers and confronted us with the need for new judicial and political solutions. In the meantime, Hosni Mubarak's trial has begun and it raises again important questions on how to handle trials of ex- dictators. The trial may foreshadow the future stance to the rule of law of Egypt's new politic system. The events in Libya and also Syria sparked a new discussion about the concept of responsibility to protect.
Political Geography:
Syria and Egypt

1275. Whither the Arab Spring? 1989 or 1848?

Author:
Robert Springborg
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The dramatic thawing of the Cold War at the end of the 1980s accompanied by the rapid democratisation of Eastern Europe served as inspiration and model for political transitions in other settings. Now the Arab world, the securitisation of which has kept it frozen in what amounts to a regional cold war long after the global prototype ended, may be entering its springtime of political freedom. Tunisia's 'Jasmine' and Egypt's 'Midan al Tahrir' Revolutions chased established autocrats from power, thus making possible new domestic political orders and substantial reorientations of foreign policies. Imitative uprisings in Bahrain, Yemen, Libya and Syria have thus far resulted in widespread violence, regime retrenchments and even foreign interventions, although prospects do remain for more positive outcomes. Intermittent demonstrations in various other Arab countries, including Morocco, Algeria, Oman, Jordan and Iraq, have typically been met with limited political reforms and promises of more to come. So the region is definitely in political ferment, but whether that presages transitions to democracy à la Eastern Europe in 1989, or revanchist reconsolidations reminiscent of those that overwhelmed the 1848 liberal nationalist movements in Western Europe, remains to be seen.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Algeria, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain, and Oman

1276. A Memo to Ban Ki-moon

Author:
Richard Gowan and Bruce D. Jones
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Congratulations. You have not only won a second five---year term at the United Nations, but you also won with a minimum of fuss. In a month in which the Security Council has been rocked by disputes over Syria, all fifteen members backed you. Last week, the General Assembly gave you unanimous support.
Topic:
International Organization, United Nations, International Affairs, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Syria

1277. Syrian Uprising: Looking In, Looking Out

Author:
Amr al-Azm
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Syrian regime was initially able to count on its neighbors in two key areas: ensuring that their territories do not become a safe haven for Syrian dissidents and continuing to receive their support on the regional and international level. This support has since eroded as a result of the regime's inability to contain the ever-escalating level of violence being perpetrated against the protesters. The gravest concern for the regime is the emergence of a Benghazi scenario in a city like Aleppo as a result of Turkish military intervention. The Syrian regime now finds itself in an ever-increasing cycle of isolation and increased internal repression.
Topic:
Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1278. From Endearment to Estrangement: Turkey's Interests and Concerns in Syria

Author:
Yigal Schleifer
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Turkish relations with the Syrian regime have developed at a dizzying pace over the last 15 years, going from outright hostility to close cooperation and back to estrangement. Prior to the current uprising, Turkey looked at Syria as a cornerstone in its plans to become a political, economic and “moral” leader in the Middle East. Ankara has deep concerns regarding developments in Syria, particularly in terms of the domestic repercussions of any Syrian political instability or social upheaval. These concerns shaped Ankara's initial caution in completely breaking with Damascus and could still limit the scope of Turkish action against the Assad regime.
Topic:
Regime Change and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Arabia, and Syria

1279. Baghdad's Wary Support for the Syrian Status Quo

Author:
Sean Kane and Elie Abouaoun
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iraq's reaction to the popular uprising in Syria is mostly determined by the chaos its Shiite-led government believes would follow the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Baghdad possesses limited ability to influence the course of events in Syria, but is using this to provide modest support to the Assad regime. The fractured and sectarian nature of Iraqi politics, however, militates against Baghdad developing a decisive position on the way forward in Syria.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

1280. Regional Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising: The Impact on Lebanon and Hezbollah

Author:
Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Lebanese society is starkly divided on Syria, but all sides fear the country's potential descent into a sectarian civil war and seek to insulate Lebanon from its fallout. Lebanon's key political actors hold vastly different views on their definitions of interests, threat perceptions and desirable outcomes in Syria. Lebanon has already witnessed some negative Syrian spillover. Going forward, key concerns will center on both directed threats and uncontrolled fallout from worsening instability inside Syria. Lebanon's ability to influence the conflict dynamics inside Syria is limited.
Topic:
Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria