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82. Iraq's sectarian crisis reignites as Shi'a militias execute civilians and remobilize
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali, Kimberly Kagan, and Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Escalating violence in Iraq crossed a new and very dangerous threshold this week. Al Qaeda in Iraq launched a concentrated wave of car-bomb and other attacks specifically against civilian Shi'a targets in and around Baghdad. Shi'a militias are mobilizing and have begun a round of sectarian killings facilitated by false checkpoints, a technique characteristic of the 2006-2007 period. Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki has taken a number of steps to demonstrate that he remains in control of the situation. The expansion of Shi'a militia activity, however, is likely to persuade many Iraqis that he is either not in control or is actively abetting the killings. The re-mobilization of Shi'a militias in Iraq coincides with the formal announcement by Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah of his organization's active military participation in the Syrian civil war. Al Qaeda in Iraq's sectarian mass-murder attacks coincide with the announcement by AQI's affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al Nusra, that attacking Hezbollah is that group's primary target henceforth. The stage appears to be set not merely for the collapse of the Iraqi state into the kind of vicious sectarian killing and sectarian cleansing that nearly destroyed it in 2006 and 2007, but also for the expansion of that sectarian warfare throughout both Mesopotamia and the Levant.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
83. Middle East Security Report : Syria's Armed Opposition
- Author:
- Joseph Holliday
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The rebels will have to rely on external lines of supply to replenish their arms and ammunition if they are to continue eroding the regime's control. The emergence of al-Qaeda-linked terrorist cells working against the regime poses risks to the United States and a challenge to those calling for material support of the armed opposition. As the militias continue to face overwhelming regime firepower the likelihood of their radicalization may increase. Moreover, the indigenous rebels may turn to al-Qaeda for high-end weaponry and spectacular tactics as the regime's escalation leaves the rebels with no proportionate response, as occurred in Iraq in 2005-2006. Developing relations with armed opposition leaders and recognizing specific rebel organizations may help to deter this dangerous trend. It is imperative that the United States distinguish between the expatriate political opposition and the armed opposition against the Assad regime on the ground in Syria. American objectives in Syria are to hasten the fall of the Assad regime; to contain the regional spillover generated by the ongoing conflict; and to gain influence over the state and armed forces that emerge in Assad's wake. Therefore, the United States must consider developing relations with critical elements of Syria's armed opposition movement in order to achieve shared objectives, and to manage the consequences should the Assad regime fall or the conflict protract.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, United States, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Germany, and Syria
84. Strengthening the IAEA: How the Nuclear Watchdog Can Regain Its Bark
- Author:
- Gregory L. Schulte
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The United States has a great interest in the success of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), given the important role it can play in reducing the risks of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. Stalled investigations of Iran and Syria have put the credibility of the IAEA at stake. The agency detected neither Iran’s hidden uranium enrichment facility near Qom nor the reactor being constructed by Syria near al Kibar. These examples underscore the importance of strengthening the agency’s verification capability, by both increasing its authority and sharing more information. The IAEA can also help shape the global growth of nuclear power, ensuring the highest levels of safety and security, while discouraging the spread of sensitive technologies that can be misused to build nuclear weapons. The IAEA Board of Governors’ recent decision to establish a nuclear fuel bank in Russia is a step in the right direction. Success requires a new “Spirit of Vienna”—a willingness of delegates to work toward consensus on even difficult topics—surrounding the agency’s important role in nonproliferation. It also requires a conscious effort by the new Director General to remove the politics from IAEA business and return the agency to its technical mandate.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Syria, and Vienna
85. PolicyWatch #1340: Who Was Imad Mughniyeh?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Yesterday's assassination of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh was welcome news in Washington, Buenos Aires, Tel Aviv, and, albeit quietly, Beirut and Baghdad. For Hizballah and Damascus, however, the loss of Mughniyeh -- who was a brilliant military tactician, a key contact to Tehran, and a successful political leader -- is a severe blow to their ongoing activities and operations.
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Tehran, Baghdad, Lebanon, Syria, and Beirut
86. PolicyWatch #1406: Stability in Lebanon Threatened, Again
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This past Monday, a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) transport was targeted by a car bomb that killed five soldiers and wounded twenty-five others. The strike was the third on the LAF since June and occurred in increasingly violent northern Lebanon. In fact, violence in and around Tripoli, the largest city in the north, is now becoming routine. This explosive situation threatens the country's already fragile stability, while providing Syria with an opportunity to loosen the pro-Western ruling coalition's tenuous hold on power.
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
87. Facing the Abyss: Lebanon's Deadly Political Stalemate
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- As the third anniversary of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri approaches, Lebanon is witnessing its worst crisis since the 15-year civil war. Hariri's February 14th assassination—widely suspected to have been orchestrated by Syria—enraged the Lebanese who took to the streets one month later, demanding the withdrawal of Syrian troops. Dubbed the Cedar Revolution, this mass protest movement succeeded in ending nearly 30 years of Syrian military occupation. It was to have ushered in a new era of democracy. Instead, Lebanon has suffered through bombings, assassinations, war between Hezbollah and Israel, and bouts of sectarian violence.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
88. The Fight for Diwaniyah: The Sadrist Trend and ISCI Struggle for Supremacy
- Author:
- Patrick Gaughen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Even as U.S. operations to co-opt large elements of the Sunni insurgency and target irreconciliable al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters resulted in lower levels of violence during the summer, U.S. forces have simultaneously pursued rogue elements of Muqtada as-Sadr's Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM). These operations, often in collaboration with Iraqi Security Forces friendly to Sadr's main Shi'a rival, the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq (ISCI), took place within the broader context of a violent struggle between ISCI and the Sadrist Trend for supremacy within the Shi'a community, the lucrative income from control of the Shi'a shrines, and control of southern oil fields. This struggle has increasingly centered on the city of Diwaniyah, located in southern Iraq, approximately halfway between the capital of Baghdad and the southern port city of Basrah.
- Topic:
- Religion, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria
89. PolicyWatch #1245: Syria's Export of Terrorism to Lebanon: Threat and Response
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Yesterday's car bombing in Beirut, which killed Future Party parliamentarian Walid Eido, underscores the Syrian-backed multifront campaign to undermine stability in Lebanon. One front is the Palestinian refugee camps, particularly Nahr al-Bared, where the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are currently fighting Fatah al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affilate with ties to Syria. A second front is Beirut itself, via terrorist attacks designed to destabilize the state. The blast that killed Eido was the sixth such attack in the past month, and Lebanon's Internal Security Force (ISF) has interdicted several other ambitious terrorist conspiracies, including a plot described by the Lebanese daily as "the Lebanese September 11."
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
90. Hizballah Opens a Second Front
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The capture yesterday of two Israeli soldiers (eight more were killed) in a crossborder raid by the Lebanese group Hizballah, as Israeli forces in Gaza continued to search for an Israeli soldier kidnapped last week by Hamas and to clear Qassam rocket launch sites, marked the opening of a second front in the war against Israel being waged by these two Islamist terrorist groups and their state sponsors, Syria and Iran. These developments highlight the potential for further escalation and illustrate the rising dangers posed by the emergence of an anti-Israel and anti-American military axis comprised of Hamas, Hizballah, Syria, and Iran.
- Topic:
- Development, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- America, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Syria