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82. Syria Under Bashar (I): Foreign Policy Challenges
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Iraq war, Washington and Damascus have been locked in a dialogue of the deaf. U.S. policy has been reduced to a series of demands and threats. Syrian policy, with President Bashar still struggling to formulate and implement a coherent strategy, has been mainly wait-and-see – offering a few concessions and hoping to weather the storm while refusing to relinquish what it sees as trump cards (support for Hizbollah and radical Palestinian groups) so long as the conflict with Israel continues. Despite the current deadlock, however, the current regional situation presents an opportunity for an intensive, U.S.-led diplomatic effort to revive the Israeli-Syrian peace process and thereby achieve significant changes in Syrian policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Israel, Arabia, and Syria
83. Syria Under Bashar (II): Domestic Policy Challenges
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Bashar al-Assad's presidency has failed to live up to the hopes for far-reaching domestic reform that greeted it in 2000. After a brief opening, Syria clamped down on dissent, and economic change remains painfully slow. Many who once viewed Bashar as a potential partner, open-minded, and Western-oriented, now perceive him as, if anything, more ideological than and just as tied to the Baathist regime as his father. Both assessments are overly simplistic and poor guides to dealing with a Syria that is at a crossroads. Syrian officials hint at significant steps in mid-2004, including possible changes in the Baath Party hierarchy and doctrine and moves toward a more open and inclusive political system. Scepticism is in order, as such pledges have repeatedly been made in the past only to be ignored. But with reform now a strategic imperative, Syria should turn hints into reality and the international community should find ways to encourage and to assist it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and Syria
84. Sanctioning Syria: A Moment of Opportunity
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since March 8, 2004, Syria has witnessed an unprecedented series of riots by Kurds and protests by human rights activists and intellectuals. These developments set the stage for the Bush administration's imminent announcement about imposing sanctions in accordance with the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
85. A Turkish Rapprochement with Middle East Rogue States?
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkish foreign minister Abdullah Gul will make an official visit to Tehran on January 10. This visit comes on the heels of a January 6-8 trip to Turkey by Syrian president Bashar al-Asad -- the first ever by a Syrian head of state -- during which Asad was showered with praise by the Turkish media. Why is Ankara suddenly at ease with Damascus and Tehran, both of whom have given Turkey headaches by supporting the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and harboring Turkish Hizballah and other Islamist terror groups?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
86. Europe, Syria, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Author:
- Dalia Dassa Kaye
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Syrian president Bashar al-Asad's January 6 interview with London's Daily Telegraph -- in which he indicated that Syria would not relinquish its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities until Israel did so also -- suggests that Syria is not likely to follow Libya's recent example of foregoing WMD in order to improve relations with the West. Still, Europe's newly aggressive approach to countering proliferation offers an opportunity for greater transatlantic coordination and the potential to reap concrete results.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
87. Is All Quiet on Israel's Northern Front?
- Author:
- Zohar Palti
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- For much of the upcoming presidential election season, the United States will no doubt be preoccupied with domestic affairs on the one hand, and the postwar transition in Iraq on the other. Although Washington undoubtedly hopes for a quiet year in the Middle East, reality might bring less desirable results. In the Arab-Israeli arena, the most significant threat to regional stability (beyond Palestinian terrorism) is the Syria-Hizballah-Iran triangle. Hizballah and Syria appear to be reverting to their traditional pattern of ratcheting up terrorist activity whenever they feel they are being ignored. Unless an effort of some sort is made to halt such escalation, Israel's northern front will become the site of a broader conflict in which neither Israel nor the United States wants to become enmeshed at the moment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria
88. Terror from Damascus, Part II: Hizballah and al-Qaeda Terrorist Activity in Syria
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent talks in Damascus focused not only on Syrian sponsorship of Palestinian terrorist groups, but also on Syria's increasingly intimate ties with and support for Hizballah. Yet, Syrian support for terrorist groups of global reach does not end with Hizballah. Recently revealed intelligence on al-Qaeda activities in Europe exposed a significant al-Qaeda network in Syria.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
89. Terror from Damascus, Part I: The Palestinian Terrorist Presence in Syria
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Syrian sponsorship of terrorism topped the agenda of Secretary of State Colin Powell's recent trip to Damascus, and his visit was quickly followed by conflicting reports regarding the status of various terrorist headquarters there. The coming weeks will determine whether the Damascus offices of Hizballah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC), and other terrorist groups have in fact been shut down, and, far more critically, whether their activities have been curtailed. Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Syrian officials continue to describe the Damascus headquarters of these terrorist groups as "media offices." By harboring these groups, Syria is complicit in their terrorist activities, which include inciting, recruiting, training, coordinating, funding, and directing terrorists staging operations from Syria itself and from Syrian-controlled Lebanon.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
90. Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Israel-Lebanon border is the only Arab-Israeli front to have witnessed continuous violence since the late 1960s and it could become the trigger for a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, in recent times it has been the object of very little international focus. Amidst raging warfare between Israelis and Palestinians and mounting war-talk surrounding Iraq, there is scant energy to devote to a conflict that, since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, appears devoid of justification and which neither of its principal protagonists seems interested in escalating. But ignoring it could be costly. Neither its roots nor its implications have ever been purely local. Israel's withdrawal has lessened the immediate costs but in some ways rendered the problem more unpredictable. Stripped of its cover as an Israeli-Lebanese border dispute, it has laid bare both the underlying Israeli-Syrian confrontation and Iran's involvement in the conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria