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61. The Fall of Syria's Assad Regime: A Syrian American Perspective (Episode 23)

Author:
Feras Mousilli and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
On December 8, 2024, the Syrian people overthrew Bashar Al Assad, bringing to an end a brutal fifty-four-year dictatorship. Although the Syrian people partook in the wave of revolutions during the Arab Spring, their efforts to bring about democracy in Syria were hijacked by a host of external actors in what deteriorated into a violent proxy war between Russia, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. As a result, over 300,000 Syrians were killed, and 13 million Syrians became refugees or internally displaced within the country, as explained in CSRR’s 2019 report “Toward Empowerment and Sustainability: Reforming America’s Syrian Refugee Policy (https://csrr.rutgers.edu/issues/towar...) .” Our guest, Feras Mousilli, is the founder and managing partner of the Lloyd & Mousilli law firm, a recipient of a Fulbright award from the U.S. State Department, and a leader in the Syrian diaspora in the United States. Mr. Mousilli provides the unique perspectives of Syrian Americans who have been waiting for the fall of the Assad regime for decades. He offers his insights into what led to the overthrow of Bashar al Assad and what to expect next in Syria.
Topic:
Diaspora, Refugees, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

62. Borders Without a Nation: Syria, Outside Powers, and Open-Ended Instability

Author:
Kheder Khaddour and Armenak Tokmajyan
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In Syria’s border regions, changes in demographics, economics, and security mean that an inter-Syrian peace process will require consensus among main regional powers that Syria must remain united, that no one side can be victorious, and that perennial instability threatens the region.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Syrian War, Borders, Regional Power, and Instability
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

63. Syria: Which groups have been fighting each other and where?

Author:
Muaz Al Abdullah
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Despite the recent coordination between opposition groups in the Military Operations Command (MOC) coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the future shape of Syria remains uncertain due to historical hostilities and ongoing divisions among the different armed groups throughout the country. ACLED data highlights previous confrontations between these groups since April 2020, when the territorial control of the country was frozen (see maps below). Although Islamic State fighters no longer control territory in Syria, their interactions with key actors — including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — remain an important dimension of the conflict.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Armed Conflict, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

64. The Caliphate Complaint Box: Stories of Islamic State Governance in the Words of Those Who Lived It

Author:
Daniel Milton and Muhammad Al-'Ubaydi
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the summer of 2014, the terrorist organization known as the Islamic State declared itself the governing entity of a vast swath of territory across Iraq and Syria encompassing millions of people, who were now ‘citizens’ of the Islamic State. Although it is well-known that the group’s governance approach carried with it the strict and sometimes violent implementation of their interpretation of Islamic law, there has been comparatively limited evidence regarding the nature of the complaints that arose during this time. This report relies on 396 previously unreleased primary source documents created by both members and civilians of the Islamic State highlighting problems encountered under the group’s governing eye—the Caliphate Complaint Box. These documents provide a vivid first-hand account of the challenges people faced living under the Islamic State. They demonstrate that, despite the group’s propaganda effort to highlight its establishment of a just society with a well-functioning government, the reality on the ground was much different. Given that any single analysis or summary cannot capture all the nuance included in these documents, the Combating Terrorism Center is releasing all of these documents through its website in an effort to promote future research on the Islamic State. However, this report does highlight some of the initial findings from an analysis of the material: The Islamic State faced regular bureaucratic challenges. Despite the promise of being different than other forms of government, the Islamic State struggled to keep track of paperwork and people, at times leading to confusion and disillusionment among those living under its control. Women living in the caliphate faced an uphill battle. Although perhaps not surprising, these documents drive home the inequity faced by women in the caliphate when it came to resolving issues of concern. Several complaints show women having to repeatedly seek help in order to provide for their families after losing husbands. Additionally, the documents contain multiple examples of men in positions of power targeting women with abuse. Citizens suffered raids and harsh treatment by both religious and security-oriented police. The laws of the Islamic State were strict, but these documents show that the execution of justice could be both harsh and uneven. People living in the caliphate might find their children hit during a raid or their vehicle confiscated at a checkpoint without a clear indication as to why or what the resolution would be. The Islamic State military bureaucracy faced challenges in recruiting, equipping, and managing its forces. The Islamic State was a group formed through military conquest. The Complaint Box documents show that, despite these successes against an array of external adversaries, the group’s military wing struggled with issues, including but not limited to the production of military weapons, leadership of training units and battlefield forces, and putting soldiers in the right units and places.
Topic:
Terrorism, Governance, Women, Islamic State, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

65. CTC Sentinel: December 2024 Issue

Author:
Graham Macklin, Paul Cruickshank, Kristina Hummel, Michael Horton, Christopher Faulkner, Marcel Plichta, and Raphael Parens
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the feature article, Graham Macklin evaluates ‘transnationalism’ as an analytical lens for understanding racially or ethnically motivated violent extremist (REMVE) terrorism. He writes that “the ‘transnational’ dimension of REMVE terrorism is often ill-defined and misunderstood, leading to misconceptions about the nature of such networks that in turn exaggerate their ‘global’ reach. … Nevertheless, understanding the transnational dimension of social media and its role in the radicalization of lone-actor REMVE terrorists is increasingly important. Online REMVE communities rather than physical organizations per se serve as the medium through which violent ideologies are spread; where lessons from previous attacks are learned and internalized; where the perpetrators of violence are revered; and where further acts of violence are encouraged and incited.” Our interview is with Marshall Miller, the outgoing Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General of the United States, who oversaw the day-to-day running of the Department of Justice and earlier in his career prosecuted or supervised the prosecution of several high-profile terrorism cases. When it comes to the CT mission of the DOJ, he says that “the number-one piece of advice would be that prevention and disruption always have to remain the top priority. And in order to achieve prevention and disruption, we need to double down on what has been working and continually modernize and calibrate to meet the varied threats. There is a system … that works; it involves coordination and information sharing and intelligence gathering from all sources—both in the intelligence community, of course, but also law enforcement and the Department of Defense.” Michael Horton outlines the Houthis’ expanding footprint in the Horn of Africa. He writes that securing supply chains and funding for their unmanned vehicle and missile programs, “especially funding and supplies that are independent of Iran, is a key objective for the Houthi leadership” and that “both AQAP and al-Shabaab now act as facilitators and, to a degree, as partners that help the Houthis smuggle needed materiel into and out of Yemen.” Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta look at Africa Corps, Russia’s replacement for the Wagner Group in Africa. They write: “Russia’s Sahel strategy, and arguably its Africa strategy writ large, is one that promotes more disruption and chaos, not less. … Russia has limited CT experience and diminished incentives to invest the resources necessary to genuinely solve the complex security crises in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and across the greater Sahel—crises that demand much more than a military solution. Adding to the complications is the potential loss of Russian bases in Syria following the overthrow of the Assad regime. Any resulting Russian forfeiture of its bases … could make airlifting goods to Libya, the Sahel, and Central Africa significantly more challenging in the short term,” with implications for the endurability of Sahelian juntas propped up by Africa Corps.
Topic:
Terrorism, Transnational Actors, Houthis, Countering Violent Extremism, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Syria, United States of America, and Horn of Africa

66. Unheard Water Stories from Asia, Africa and MENA: Elevating local voices for water security in a climate insecure world

Author:
Nuzhat Nueary
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper shares stories from six countries—Bangladesh, Nepal, Kenya, Somalia, Syria, and Iraq—highlighting the challenges communities face in accessing water. It seeks to bring forward the unique perspectives of communities from diverse backgrounds, each experiencing water crises in distinct ways. While climate change intensifies their crises, many communities also face marginalization due to exclusionary water governance. The impacts are further compounded by factors such as gender, poverty, ethnicity, and race. However, the voices and perspectives of these communities are often overlooked in global climate discussions.The paper aims to highlight these diverse community experiences and advocate for the inclusion of local voices and leadership in climate actions and interventions to ensure fairer access to water. As global climate events like COP-29 unfold, it calls on governments to create inclusive climate policies, integrate water issues into loss and damage discussions, actively involve women and local voices, and urge rich, polluting nations to compensate those most affected by historic and ongoing carbon emissions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Water, Governance, Climate Finance, Land Rights, Drought, Loss and Damage (L&D), Gender Equality, Water Insecurity, and Salinity
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, Kenya, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, Nepal, Syria, and Somalia

67. North Korean Support to Iran’s Proxy Partners

Author:
Bruce E. Bechtol
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
This essay details the role of North Korea weapons, delivery systems, and technical expertise to Iran’s regional allies (Syria, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas) – starting during the Cold War and transitioning into the PostCold War period. Pyongyang has proliferated chemical weapons, ballistic missiles, conventional arms, and sent advisers, trainers, engineers, and technicians for a variety of projects to Syria. The 2012-2020 Syrian civil war moreover expanded the Assad regime’s need for all kinds of North Korean arms. Hezbollah’s military intervention on behalf of the Syrian regime has also forced the Lebanese guerilla movement and its Iranian patron to become increasingly dependent on North Korean weapons and expertise. The Israeli war with Hamas that began on October 7, 2023, has seen a terrorist force supplied with weapons by both North Korea and Iran – often in collaboration when it comes to getting the weapons and training to Hamas operatives.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Syrian War, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Asia, North Korea, and Syria

68. Syria returns to the Arab League

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The decision to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League (AL) is aimed at Arab states gaining greater control over the situation in the region and reducing external influence, including that of the West. Although the AL imposed a number of obligations on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, such as holding elections, it is doubtful whether the League can enforce them. The organisation’s decision to normalise relations with Syria will be used to undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions in counteracting violations of international law, also in the context of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Topic:
International Law, Sanctions, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, Arab League, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and Syria

69. Present Challenges: Will Syria return to the Arab League fold?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On April 15, 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted a meeting that included the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan. The main topic on the agenda was the region’s relations with Syria and the possibility of returning to the Arab League fold after the suspension of its membership in November 2012. The visit of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, on April 18, to Damascus raised the question of whether recent diplomatic movements with Syria may pave the way for attending the Arab League Summit set to be held on May 19.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, and Arab League
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

70. Encircling Damascus: Iran’s Foreign Minister Visits Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, has made a surprise visit to Ankara, Beirut, and Damascus, reflecting his country’s increased engagement in the region. His trip to Ankara replaced a postponed trip to Moscow, where he was set to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Engagement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria