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251. Time to Update Israeli Policy Toward Syria

Author:
Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

252. The Making of the Kurdish Frontier: Power, Conflict, and Governance in the Iraqi-Syrian Borderlands

Author:
Harith Hasan and Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Iraqi-Syrian border continues to be geopolitically restless. Kurdish parties have taken advantage of central government weaknesses to increase their autonomy in these areas. Even after the collapse of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, the Iraqi-Syrian border continues to be one of the most geopolitically restless areas in the Middle East. In the last few years, a variety of Kurdish entities and groups have increasingly shaped the dynamics across the northern section of this border. In particular, there are two dynamics that deserve attention. First, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Kurdish-dominated Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria have come to effectively control new border crossings in this area as the Syrian government has lost access and the Iraqi government’s presence has been contested. This means that the movement of people and goods in this area is largely controlled by two entities that are neither state nor nonstate actors. The reality on the ground reflects hybrid arrangements that have emerged as a result of the weaknesses of both central governments and the increasing autonomy gained by Kurdish parties (which, in the case of the KRG, is stipulated constitutionally). Second, the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), by virtue of its participation in the war against the Islamic State and by taking advantage of the consequent power vacuum, managed to augment its influence along the border. Its ideological and organizational ties with local groups, such as the People Protection Units (YPG) in Syria and Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) in Iraq, enabled it to exert security and political influence. On the one hand, this turned segments of the border into an arena for transnational, pan-Kurdish militancy. On the other hand, these groups’ presence intensified intra-Kurdish rivalries, especially between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which is the KRG’s main ruling party, and the PKK. This rivalry reflects a clash of two visions for the border: the PKK’s revolutionary, transnational vision that seeks to eradicate or at least underplay the reality of the border; and the KDP’s pragmatic and territorial vision seeking to assert the border’s reality as a demarcation of the KRG’s authority and future statehood. In addition, the KDP is allied with Turkey, which has been fighting the PKK for several decades and is currently waging a military campaign against the group in northern Iraq and Syria. To a large extent, the future of this border is predicated on this geopolitical conflict and whether the PKK manages to entrench itself further or becomes isolated and marginalized as the KRG, the Autonomous Administration, and the Iraqi federal government assert their territorial authorities.
Topic:
Governance, Conflict, Borders, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

253. September 2021 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, Raffaello Pantucci, Asfandyar Mir, Charles Lister, Elisabeth Kendall, Tricia Bacon, Jason Warner, and Colin Clarke
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
It has been 20 years since 9/11. In the wake of the attacks, the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC) was established to provide cadets and policymakers with best-in-class research so that they could better understand and confront the threat. With the Taliban returning to power in Afghanistan, with Africa emerging as the new epicenter of global jihadi terror, and with it likely becoming more difficult for the intelligence community to track threats in jihadi conflict zones from which the United States has withdrawn militarily, objective and rigorous open-source research is more critical than ever. To mark the 20th anniversary of 9/11, this special issue of CTC Sentinel, supported by the Recrudescence Project, features interviews with five former officials who have made immense contributions to the counterterrorism enterprise: former Acting Director of the CIA Michael Morell, former CENTCOM Commander Joseph Votel, former State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism Dell Dailey, former FBI Special Agent Ali Soufan, and former Chief of the U.K. Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) Sir Alex Younger. Their reflections on 9/11 and their lessons learned across key parts of the counterterrorism spectrum—intelligence; military; diplomacy; law enforcement—and across the Atlantic are essential reading. Video highlights of several of the interviews are available on the CTC website: Michael Morell, Joseph Votel, Dell Dailey, and Ali Soufan. (Please right-click and open new tab to view.) The special issue also features five articles by leading scholars on the evolving global terror threat landscape. Asfandyar Mir focuses on Afghanistan. Charles Lister examines Syria. Tricia Bacon and Jason Warner look at Africa. Elisabeth Kendall surveys Yemen and Saudi Arabia. And Colin Clarke evaluates the future of the global jihadi movement. On this anniversary, our deepest sympathies are with those who have lost loved ones to terrorism. Responding to this threat, as General Votel puts it, has been a noble undertaking. We deeply appreciate those who have served. Their sacrifices have saved countless lives.
Topic:
Intelligence, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, 9/11, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Syria, Arabian Peninsula, and United States of America

254. Structure of a State: Captured Documents and the Islamic State’s Organizational Structure

Author:
Daniel Milton
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
When the group known as the Islamic State declared its caliphate in June 2014, it did so with a promise that it was not just an organization engaged in fighting, but in governing as well. As a result, the group’s pursuit of “stateness” required an investment in more than just battlefield advances. It also had to demonstrate a capability to create institutions that ostensibly served the dual purposes of imposing its interpretation of order on people while also improving the lives of its citizens. While much has been written about the various bureaucratic agencies and institutions created by the Islamic State during the highwater mark of its tenure in Iraq and Syria, still relatively little is known about the size and scope of those institutions, or the personnel power needed to sustain them. Through analysis of a small number of key primary source documents, this report offers a glimpse at both facets, demonstrating that the Islamic State created intricate organizational structures to support its governance efforts, but also that the group’s funding supported tens of thousands of individuals and their families in Iraq. Although it has lost much of its territorial holdings in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State has continued to show interest in governance there and in its affiliate provinces around the world, making the information contained in this report an important baseline against which to compare the group’s ongoing efforts.
Topic:
Counter-terrorism and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

255. Cash Camps: Financing Detainee Activities in Al-Hol and Roj Camps

Author:
Audrey Alexander
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Over two years since the fall of Baghouz, entities managing the detention facilities holding Islamic State-affiliated adults and minors in northeastern Syria face overwhelming challenges in securing this population, particularly alongside people displaced by conflict in the region. Often characterized as wastelands inhabited by a volatile population living in squalid conditions, camps like Al-Hol actually serve as a valuable hub for the region’s violent extremists and criminal networks. Since the international community has not decisively answered calls to remedy the humanitarian and detention crisis involving facilities holding Islamic State detainees, many actors have exploited opportunities afforded by inaction, particularly with regard to financial activity. This dynamic has short-, medium-, and long-term implications for terrorism financing and, more broadly, the region’s stability. The Islamic State, for instance, has leveraged the situation to raise and move funds, build ideological and financial support for the cause, and establish logistical channels that benefit the organization. To explore this phenomenon and inform how stakeholders in the counterterrorism community mitigate the issue, this report uses publicly available information and social media monitoring to trace how funds 1) move into, 2) move around, and 3) move out of two camps holding Islamic State detainees in northeastern Syria. In short, the report details how individuals, networks, and groups inside and outside Al-Hol and Roj camps raise, use, move, manage, store, and obscure funds for and from alleged Islamic State detainees held in the facilities. The analysis seeks to explain some of the trends and dynamics emerging at each stage. The section about funds going into the facilities discusses notable players raising and moving money for detainees, particularly from abroad, then highlights popular funds transfer methods. The second section describes how and why funds move around the detention facilities, particularly within the camps’ formal and informal economies, the latter of which involves transactions that camp administrators and security do not authorize or oversee. The third section details how funds leave the facilities, including trends like detainees paying smugglers to facilitate their escape, and discusses why payments for such services are detrimental to stability in the region. Ultimately, this report makes the case that funds moving into, around, and out of Al-Hol and Roj camps enable some traditional terrorism financing issues and invite risks to the region by injecting funds that embolden facilitation networks involving violent extremists, criminals, and corrupt officials. Invigorating such networks has notable implications for the region and beyond since numerous entities may ultimately exploit the players and smuggling routes regenerating in Syria today. After establishing a clearer understanding of financial activity in and around the camps, this report concludes with six policy considerations for players that can help challenge terrorist financing trends in Al-Hol and Roj camps, and thus, dynamics in the surrounding region.
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Finance, Islamic State, Innovation, and Internal Displacement
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

256. Saudi Arabia: A Colossus with Clay Feets/Arabia Saudí: Un coloso con los pies de barro

Author:
Eugenia López-Jacoiste Díaz
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The political-religious foundation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is Wahhabism that marks its identity, society and politics. The Al Saud dynasty defends and expands Sunni Islam in the region and beyond its borders. In order to understand the interests and objectives of Saudi foreign policy, this article analyzes the main geopolitical elements at the service of the stability and hegemony of the Al Saud house in the most turbulent region of the Middle East. The Saudi government is developing a foreign policy, unsuspected in the past, to maintain its historic alliance with Washington, despite the ups and downs, and to transform the old rivalries between Riyadh and Tehran into new opportunities, including with Israel. This change in Saudi foreign policy is due to the controversial Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman who knows how to take advantage of the changing regional geopolitics and Saudi financial instruments, but also the military and technological in favor of a more proactive and modern Saudi Arabia, despite his weaknesses./El fundamento político-religioso del Reino de Arabia Saudí es el wahabismo que marca su identidad, su sociedad y su política. La dinastía Al Saud defiende y expande el islam sunní en la región y fuera de sus fronteras. Para poder entender los intereses y objetivos de la política exterior saudí, este artículo analiza los principales elementos geopolíticos al servicio de la estabilidad y hegemonía de la casa Al Saud en la región más convulsa de Oriente Medio. El Gobierno saudí está desarrollando una política exterior, insospechada en el pasado para mantener su histórica alianza con Washington, a pesar de los altibajos, y transformar las viejas rivalidades entre Riad y Teherán en nuevas oportunidades, incluso con Israel. Este cambio en la política exterior saudí se debe al controvertido Príncipe Heredero Mohamed bin Salmán que sabe aprovechar la cambiante geopolítica regional y los instrumentos financieros saudíes, pero también los militares y tecnológicos a favor de una Arabia Saudí más proactiva y moderna, a pesar de sus debilidades.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Oil, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Wahhabism
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Persian Gulf, and United States of America

257. La dimensión informativa sobre la guerra: su aplicación al caso de la intervención militar turca en Rojava

Author:
José Alberto Moreno
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The Turkish Military Intervention in the Syrian part of the Kurdistan region, known as Rojava, shows that the Syrian Civil War presents a great number of different sides. The objective of the intervention is to create a safe zone where two million syrians could be resettle, expelling from the area the kurd militias that oppose the government in Ankara. The present article wants to deep in the use of frames used by the Spanish written press when covering the Turkish military intervention in the Arab country. Through a classic and cuantitative methodology, named analysis of content, this paper will go into the mediatic discourses of the national press with the purpose of exploring what explanations are having a biggest importance. This contribution tries to explore if the humanitarian question weights more heavily that the ones focused on security./La intervención militar turca en el Kurdistán sirio, conocido como Rojava, demuestra que la guerra civil siria presenta una gran cantidad de aristas. El objetivo de la misma es crear una zona de seguridad donde reasentar a más de dos millones de refugiados sirios y expulsar del lugar a las milicias kurdas, opositoras al gobierno de Ankara. El presente artículo tiene como finalidad ahondar en el uso de encuadres utilizados por la prensa escrita española a la hora de cubrir la intervención militar turca en el país árabe. A través de una metodología clásica y cuantitativa, análisis de contenido, se ahondará en los discursos mediáticos de la prensa nacional con el objetivo de investigar qué narrativas están teniendo mayor peso. Esta contribución intenta explorar si las cuestiones humanitarias presentan mayor relevancia que las explicaciones centradas en la seguridad.
Topic:
Security, War, Mass Media, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Syria, and Rojava

258. Spring 2021 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:
Vahram Ter-Matevosyan
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:
Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:
CONTENTS ANI MATEVOSYAN EXAMINING STATE-BUILDING OF THE SYRIAN REPUBLIC AND THE LEGACY OF ITS COLONIAL PAST ..................................................................... 5 JINGXIN PU NEW INSPIRATION FROM CHINA'S PHILOSOPHY OF "UNITY OF MAN AND HEAVEN": CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS UNDER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ................................................................. 21 GARNIK DAVTYAN THE INFLUENCE OF THE AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL CODE OF AZERBAIJAN ON THE OPPOSITION PARTIES ............................. 34 MARI AVETISYAN THE IMPACT OF THE CYPRUS CONFLICT ON TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION PROCESS ........................................................................................ 48 AUTHORS LIST .................................................................................................... 62 ANNEX .................................................................................................................. 63
Topic:
Military Affairs, Conflict, State Building, Political Parties, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Syria

259. Beyond Borders: Middle East in Empire, Diaspora, and Global Transitions (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Spring 2021)

Author:
Reilly Barry
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The Middle East saw its share of globe-altering events in the last year. While JMEPP seeks to offer original analysis beyond the headlines, almost all major contemporary regional developments have been addressed in the present edition. The list, of course, is not exhaustive, but includes the Abraham Accords and increasing international marginalization of Palestinians, the renewed fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, continued protests amidst crises and weakening state institutions in Lebanon, and the rise of Turkey’s aggressive imperial foreign policy, to name a few. While there are major global transitions afoot as relates to the region, there is also a lack of transition— sadly, the 10-year anniversary of the Syrian revolution marks little change for those living under the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad. Likewise, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen persists. The edition discusses what may become of newly inaugurated President Biden’s policies toward the region, including the challenge of renegotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. And finally, the edition would be remiss to not address how Covid-19 has impacted the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Diaspora, Refugees, Social Media, Alliance, Conflict, Protests, Peace, Houthis, COVID-19, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Georgia, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh

260. The Sikh Struggle for Khalistan: Refocusing on the Punjabi Suba (Province) Movement in India

Author:
Amir Ali
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This study problematizes the Sikh’s demand for Khalistan, a separate country of their own. To begin with, they demanded a greater degree of political autonomy within the domains of India. During the colonial period the Sikhs supported the Indian National Congress’s demand for the division of Punjab and inclusion of the East Punjab into Bharat. But soon after the creation of Bharat(India), `the Sikhs realized that they were betrayed and they started to vow for more autonomy. Initially, they felt that PEPSU was a step towards their aspirations but later they felt that they had missed the train and moved for Punjabi Province. After much deliberation and delaying tactics, finally the Punjab emerged on the Indian Territory in the form that always proved a nightmare for the Sikh community.
Topic:
Multiculturalism, European Union, Refugee Crisis, Arab Spring, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe, India, and Syria