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171. Full Issue - Volume 1, Issue 4

Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
NEARLY TWO DECADES AGO, Arabs who volunteered to aid the anti-Soviet struggle in Afghanistan dispersed from the conflict zone to pursue their newfound passion: jihad in the path of God. Known as “Arab Afghans,” these veterans participated in national insurgencies and civil wars, facilitated international terrorism and became ideologues of global jihad. Today, Iraq's global jihadists are facing a similar moment. Al-Qa`ida in Iraq (AQI) is under tremendous military pressure from Sunni tribes, nationalist insurgents and U.S.-Iraqi counter-insurgency operations. There is a distinct possibility that AQI could be driven out of Iraq in the near future. It is unclear, however, what the movement will do next. The experiences of Arab Afghans suggest that the defeat of AQI may generate new threats associated with the dispersal of its fighters in the region and around the world. Therefore, it is vitally important to revisit the experiences of the Arab Afghans to develop lessons for present day Iraq.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Soviet Union, and Arabia

172. Russia vs Georgia: The Fallout - Europe Report N°195

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Russia-Georgia conflict has transformed the contemporary geopolitical world, with large consequences for peace and security in Europe and beyond. Moscow's initial moves into South Ossetia as large-scale violence broke out there on 7-8 August were in part a response to a disastrous miscalculation by a Georgian leadership that was impatient with gradual confidence building and a Russian-dominated negotiations process. But Russia's disproportionate counter-attack, with movement of large forces into Abkhazia and deep into Georgia, accompanied by the widespread destruction of economic infrastructure, damage to the economy and disruption of communications and movement between different regions of the country, constitutes a dramatic shift in Russian-Western relations. It has undermined regional stability and security; threatened energy corridors that are vital for Europe; made claims with respect to ethnic Russians and other minorities that could be used to destabilise other parts of the former Soviet Union, with Ukraine a potential target; and shown disregard for international law.
Topic:
NATO, International Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Soviet Union, Moscow, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

173. Book Review: World War IV: The Long Struggle against Islamofascism by Norman Podhoretz

Author:
Christopher Preble
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
“9/11 constituted an open declaration of war on the United States and … the war into which it catapulted us was nothing less than another world war.” So says Norman Podhoretz in the opening passage of this alarmist, rambling screed. The enemy is Islamofascism, a “monster with two heads, one religious and the other secular.” This scourge, Podhoretz warns darkly, may be “even more dangerous and difficult to beat” than Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union.
Political Geography:
United States and Soviet Union

174. Asian Power: Sino-Russian Conflict in Central Asia?

Author:
Kathleen J. Hancock
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the state-owned gas monopoly, Gazprom, made front-page news when they ceased exporting natural gas to Ukraine in the winter of 2006, leaving Europe both irate and fearful due to its dependency on Russian energy. What many failed to notice was that Russia's actions wekre consistent with a fifteen year-old policy of playing hardball with former Soviet members using gas and oil pipelines as carrots and sticks to force policies and actions favorable to Moscow.Three of the states most affected by this pipeline diplomacy and least discussed in the Western press are the resource-rich Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. While energy-importing European states are vulnerable to Russia cutting supplies, exporting Central Asian states worry about Moscow shutting down pipeline access, without which they have few export options. The relationship between these states and Russia is further complicated by China's interest in Central Asia. Although Beijing and Moscow have recently patched up their rivalry, the increasing economic strength of both states plus jockeying between Russia and Central Asian states to serve as China's energy supplier may push Russia and China back into an antagonistic, and potentially dangerous, relationship.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Asia, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, and Moscow

175. Azerbaijan: Independent Islam and the State

Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Claims that major terrorist acts were foiled in Azerbaijan at the end of 2007 have prompted discussion about the extent to which Islamic extremism is a genuine threat in the oil-rich land. Azerbaijan is a secular state with an overwhelmingly moderate (predominantly Shiite) Muslim population. Since the break-up of the Soviet Union and independence in 1991, independent Sunni and Shiite groups have emerged which refuse the spiritual authority of the official clergy. Some are political, but very few, if any, appear intent on employing violence to overthrow the state. The government, however, expresses concern about these “independents”, and tries to control them, including through repression. Its strategy risks radicalising peaceful activists and believers.
Topic:
Human Rights, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Soviet Union and Azerbaijan

176. Europe's Rising East

Author:
Janusz Bugajski
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Predictions for much of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) nearly two decades ago, when the Soviet bloc was disintegrating, were basically of two sorts. The “end of history” scenario envisioned rapid democratization and economic liberalism for the region as a whole. This, however, proved too optimistic a prognosis. The second scenario posited a “return of history,” a reversion to perpetual ethnic conflict and inter-state turmoil. But this ended up being too sweeping and pessimistic a forecast. Instead, the CEE has witnessed marked diversity, not only in the pace of domestic transformation and democratic consolidation, but also in differing approaches to national security and foreign policy.
Political Geography:
Europe and Soviet Union

177. Georgia and Russia: Clashing over Abkhazia

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the dispute between Georgia and Russia in a new, dangerously confrontational phase, the risk of war in the South Caucasus is growing. Concerned by NATO's plans for further extension to former Soviet republics and Kosovo's unilateral but Western-orchestrated independence, Russia has stepped up manipulation of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflicts. Georgia remains determined to restore its territorial integrity, and hawks in Tbilisi are seriously considering a military option. Both sides need to recognise the risks in current policies, cool their rhetoric and cease military preparations. Russia should cease undermining its peacekeeper and mediator roles and be open to a change of negotiating formats. Georgia should adopt a new approach to the Abkhaz, encouraging their links to the outside world to lessen dependence on Russia and emphasising incremental con­­fidence building to establish the mutual trust needed for successful negotiations. The U.S. and European Union (EU) should be firm and united in cautioning both Moscow and Tbilisi against military adventures.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, Kosovo, Georgia, and Tbilisi

178. Parting with Illusions: Developing a Realistic Approach to Relations with Russia

Author:
Nikolas Gvosdev
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
A review of America's post-Soviet strategy toward Russia is long overdue. The illusions that once guided policy are now at an end. What is needed is a dispassionate approach to Russia, wherein Americans would neither magnify nor excuse the virtues and vices of the Russian Federation but would accept the following realities: Russia is unlikely to become integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community and is unwilling to adjust its foreign policy priorities accordingly; There is broad-based support within Russia for the direction in which Vladimir Putin has taken the country; Russia has undergone a genuine—if limited— recovery from the collapse of the 1990s; Washington lacks sufficient leverage to compel Russian acquiescence to its policy preferences; and On a number of critical foreign policy issues, there is no clear community of interests that allows for concepts of "selective partnership" to be effective.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

179. No Way Out: An Assessment of the Romani Community in Georgia

Author:
David Szakonyi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
The Romani community is the most marginalized and disadvantaged ethnic community in Georgia. Although accurate estimates are hard to establish, the population is thought to number up to 1,500 persons, living in multiple small settlements across Georgia. Extreme poverty, unemployment, lack of education and health care, and isolation from larger society comprise several of the major problems the community as a whole is facing. The overall situation for the Roms in Georgia has significantly deteriorated since the Soviet period, leaving the population practically devoid of any means to lift themselves out of their often devastating circumstances.
Topic:
Education, Ethnic Conflict, Health, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, and Georgia

180. Islamic Movements and Democracy in Central Asia: Integration or Isolation?

Author:
Anthony Bowyer
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
The Central Asian republics of the former Soviet Union have been independent for nearly seventeen years following seven long decades of communist rule in which their identities and traditions were altered through Sovietization and the Russification that preceded it. The region was divided into Khanates and Great Hordes, which had their first experience with Islam dating back to the 8th century, consolidated through successive invasions by Persians and Arabs from the fifteenth century onward, and formed the northernmost expanse of the Islamic world. The gradual encroachment of Imperial Russian influence, first eastward into Siberia, southward into the North Caucasus and later into the steppe of Central Asia and beyond, came about as a shock to the traditional lifestyles and power structures of the region. The establishment of Tsarist military outposts was accompanied by often brutal suppression of local populations including seizure of land and imposition of alien social values. No strangers to outside invasions, the people of Central Asia adapted as best they could under the circumstances, struggling to maintain their cultures and history but capitalizing on the positive elements that contact with the Russians brought, namely trade and infrastructure modernization. Acceptance of the Tsar's rule was not universal, and as of the late 19th century much of the region was not under the Tsar's control.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Soviet Union