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11. US-ASEAN Digital Economy Cooperation

Author:
Hanh Nguyen
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Long criticized for its lackluster record in economic engagement with Southeast Asia, the US is now looking to bolster digital economy cooperation with the region as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy. Both sides have already engaged in several cooperation initiatives to strengthen Southeast Asia’s digital capacities. These actions/engagements aim to help the region capture the immense benefit and respond to potential socioeconomic disruptions brought by the digital economic boom. However, US-ASEAN cooperation will have to deal with two challenges. First, China has already established a comprehensive and prevalent presence in the region’s digital economy, from hard infrastructure and customer-facing businesses to developing digital standards. Second, Southeast Asia’s diversity in economic development leads to varied capacities among its members. These attributes carry certain security complications for Southeast Asia and the US in the long run. Addressing them will require both sides to further boost cooperation, particularly in shaping regional digital standards.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Digital Economy, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
North America, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

12. Great Power Politics: The Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia, and the Global South

Author:
Kei Koga
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
2023 marks the 50th Year of ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation, and there are expectations that their relationship will be upgraded to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” Given the good diplomatic, security, and economic relations between Japan and Southeast Asian states, ties are likely to be strengthened. However, Japan is now taking a more competitive strategy toward China, as indicated in the three security documents issued in December 2022, while Southeast Asian states generally continued the same strategic posture by which they have good relations with all great powers in the Indo-Pacific region. Also, while Japan issued the “New Plan for the Free and Open Indo-Pacific” that emphasizes the “Global South,” it remained silent about ASEAN centrality and unity in the Indo-Pacific, and it was unclear what roles Japan expects ASEAN to play. Although both Japan and Southeast Asian states need to adjust their roles in the Indo-Pacific region, it remains to be seen whether the 50th anniversary becomes an opportunity for clarification.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Power Politics, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Japan, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

13. US-Southeast Asia Relations: External Order, Inner Turmoil

Author:
Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In November three ASEAN states—Cambodia, Indonesia, and Thailand—drew favorable marks for their chairmanship of high-profile regional and global meetings: the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Leaders Meeting; the G20 Summit; and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, respectively. Helming these meetings was particularly challenging for Southeast Asian leaders—who are naturally inclined to avoid strong alignments with external powers—in the current global environment of heightened tensions between the United States and China in the Taiwan Strait and the war in Ukraine. However, the year was a difficult period for ASEAN internally, with uneven economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the intractable conflict in Myanmar. The last quarter of 2022 saw two political shifts in the region: in general elections in Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim achieved a longstanding ambition to become prime minister but will have to manage a difficult coalition to retain power. At the year’s end, Laos changed prime ministers, but it is not clear if the transition will solve the country’s debt problems, which were revealed to be more dire than estimated.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Alliance, ASEAN, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and United States of America

14. Southeast Asia Is the Soft Underbelly of American Power in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Southeast Asia is not just the swing sub-region in the Indo-Pacific but also the soft underbelly of the region—the area most susceptible to Chinese coercion, influence, and expansion. Except for Vietnam, Southeast Asian states have strong fence-sitting tendencies and are reluctant to properly balance and counter Beijing due to their proximity to China, smaller size, limited capabilities, and economic integration with and reliance on China. They are also constantly fearful that the US and its allies will abandon and leave them to fend for themselves against a hostile China. This means that while one can identify pockets of creative and proactive thinking in this sub-region, the prevailing inclinations of the region’s countries are to never back a side before the result is obvious, do the minimum when it comes to burden sharing, and receive maximum economic and security benefits for minimum risk, price, and commitment. In short, they are often inclined toward free riding. It is easy for the US and its allies to become frustrated with Southeast Asian states that give the impression they are seeking various forms of “strategic welfare.” The more constructive approach is to understand their domestic and external vulnerabilities and work within these.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Strategic Competition, ASEAN, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

15. ASEAN’s Role in the Threat of Global Economic Decoupling: Implications from Geographical Simulation Analysis

Author:
Ikumo Isono and Satoru Kumagai
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The war between Russia and Ukraine since February 2022 has triggered renewed concerns about global economic decoupling. Although the face-to-face meeting between the United States and China leaders in November 2022 agreed to continue the dialogue, it is premature to assert that progress has begun in the direction of avoiding decoupling. We used the geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM) to examine the possible economic impacts of global economic decoupling on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We define decoupling as policy changes that raise barriers to trade in goods and services and firms’ responses to these changes. If policy decoupling occurs despite the efforts of economic agents, the global economy is negatively affected. ASEAN has a relative advantage through positive trade diversion effects if it does not join any of the groups. Adherence to a rules-based international trade order will ultimately benefit ASEAN Member States and people. ASEAN should demonstrate ASEAN centrality and show the world its efforts to avoid decoupling. It should also avoid participating in decoupling if it occurs.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Industry, ASEAN, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

16. Reframing of Global Strategies and Regional Cooperation Pathways for an Inclusive Net-Zero Strategy in the Energy Transition Framework

Author:
Fachry Abdul Razak Afifi, Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, Dongmei Chen, Alin Halimaussadiah, and Vida Hardjono
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
As carbon dioxide emission reductions become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced net-zero emissions targets. Achieving a net-zero economy will require the decarbonisation of electricity generation, massive expansion of low-carbon energy systems, and investment in net-zero-carbon technologies. These adjustments must consider the existing energy, economic, and social development imperatives of advanced and developing countries, while encouraging regional cooperation. This brief assesses energy transition challenges for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and proposes new policy pathways towards an inclusive global net-zero economy.
Topic:
Climate Change, ASEAN, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

17. Geographical Simulation Analysis for CADP 3.0

Author:
Ikumo Isono, Satoru Kumagai, and Keita Oikawa
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The economic impact of the development of transport and digital infrastructure and the adoption of energy-saving technologies envisaged in the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan 3.0 (CADP 3.0) was analysed using the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) and Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM). This infrastructure development and technology adoption will affect all industries and change the structure of the economy as the basis for rejuvenated and advanced industries such as agriculture, automotives, medicine, and pharmaceuticals. By combining this infrastructure development and technology adoption, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia could achieve high economic impacts and geographical inclusiveness. The Lao People’s Democratic Republic will obtain the greatest economic impact as it transitions from a landlocked to a land-linked country. Cambodia will also reap significant benefits from upgrading information and communication technology. The simulation results thus recommend the implementation of the CADP 3.0 strategy for both ASEAN and individual Member States.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Simulation
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

18. Facilitating Global Trade and Investment and Leveraging Value Added in Downstream Industries

Author:
Raihan M. Ramadhan and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Despite facing global uncertainties, Indonesia has achieved macroeconomic stability, supported by strong responses in fiscal and monetary policy, as well as robust domestic supply chains. By using its natural resources and following the global trend of green industries, Indonesia aims to become a key player in the global renewable energy market. Sound infrastructure is one of the key requirements to attract high-profile investments, but Indonesia struggles with poor and unequal infrastructure. Cumbersome bureaucracy and restrictiveness towards services trade also hinder the nation from reaching its potential. Strengthening physical, human, and institutional infrastructure will help the country secure investments and boost trade.
Topic:
Investment, Trade, Industry, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

19. ASEAN Digital Community 2040

Author:
Lili Yan Ing and Ivana Markus
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Digital transformation (DX) is one of the most crucial innovations to have changed modern life over the last decade. The number of annual installations of industrial robots worldwide has more than doubled. Technological revolutions have led to unprecedented changes in what and how we trade. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is on track to grow its digital community, with a rising number of internet users and greater internet penetration. However, one of the main concerns in the growing DX era is the digital divide within and across countries including in ASEAN, which is reflected in the gaps in internet speed, usage, and technology production amongst ASEAN Member States. Other challenges in DX are privacy, cybersecurity, and competition concerns. The ASEAN Chairmanship in 2023 could address several DX challenges to move towards the vision of a thriving ASEAN Digital Community by 2040 through implementing ASEAN commitments, improving the quality of key digital enablers for digital technology adoption, enhancing countries’ preparedness for digital transformation, and improving the quality of privacy and competition laws to address the costs and risks of DX.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

20. Understanding the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement: A Means to Support ASEAN Integration

Author:
Mima Sefrina
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has accelerated the importance of digital technologies in the economy, particularly in e-commerce and digital financial services. Recognising the importance of digital technologies for economic recovery, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders signed the Bandar Seri Begawan Roadmap in 2021, which laid the foundation for the integration of the ASEAN digital economy in three phases – recovery, implementation, and transformation – and affirmed their interest in the establishment of a Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). The DEFA aims to deepen existing digital economy cooperation and ensure the interoperability of digital economy systems. The formulation and signing of the DEFA will require the provision of flexible timelines and technical assistance, as the ASEAN Digital Integration Index shows that ASEAN is still in the early stages of digital economy development and that ASEAN Member States are at different levels of readiness for digital economy integration.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Digital Economy, Regional Integration, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia