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341. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 9, Issue 01: 'Annual Threat Assessment 2017'

Author:
Rohan Gunaratna, Remy Mahzam, Iftekharul Bashar, Mohammed Sinan Siyech, Abdul Basit, Sara Mahmood, Nodirbek Soliev, Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman Alkaff, Vikram Rajakumar, and Shahzeb Ali Rathore
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
2016 saw the so-called Islamic State (IS) in retreat following sustained bombardment and military attacks and airstrikes by the US-led coalition as well as Russian and Syrian forces. It has conceded large swathes of territory, towns and cities, and lost some of its top commanders and strategists and more than 25,000 fighters. The group‘s revenue has declined and so has the flow of new fighters. It has to contend with desertions, in-fighting and scarce resources. Its fall-back wilayats (provinces) in Libya have been lost and many in the liberated areas of Iraq and Syria are jubilant at its ouster after holding sway for more than 20 months. Its declaration of the caliphate is rejected by the Muslim world, which has denounced its acts of violence and misreading of religious texts. Since its formation, IS remains the object of condemnation and denunciation by the whole world. Even so, the terrorist threat posed by IS and its decentralised networks in 2016 shows no sign of abatement. Throughout the year, IS‘ active worldwide networks demonstrated the ability to plan, direct, train, recruit and radicalise from abroad, operating with impunity and surpassing the threat from Al Qaeda‘s old guard. The year saw a number of IS-directed or IS-inspired attacks by terror cells or ‘lone wolves‘ in major cities like Brussels, Nice, Orlando, Istanbul, Dhaka, Jakarta and Berlin resulting in thousands of casualties. Its propaganda machinery and online presence remain formidable, exploiting technology for communications, recruitment, finance, training and terrorist operations. IS has caused the displacement of millions and triggered a humanitarian crisis among refugees and in the battle zones. The group‘s extremism and violence have contributed to inter-religious tensions and discord, and strengthened anti-Islamist movements in the West. The stage is therefore set for 2017 to be a portentous and decisive year for IS and countries afflicted by the threat of terrorism. As IS loses control of Mosul and Raqqa in coming months, it will change strategy, focus and priorities. How it will change and what the impact will be are issues addressed by Rohan Gunaratna in his article on Global Threat Forecast, as well as in accompanying articles on the terrorism situation in selected countries and regions. As IS continues to lose ground in Iraq and Syria, it will transform itself from a caliphate-building entity to a terrorist organisation. It will seek refuge in its many wilayats and enclaves, and consolidate, expand and use them as launching pads to mount terrorist attacks. The group will continue with its strategy of expanding the ‘battlefield‘ to the West and elsewhere, and hit ‘soft‘ and easy targets. Overall, the terrorist threat will endure in the New Year and will continue to require effective counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism and counter-violent extremism measures.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Iraq, South Asia, Central Asia, East Asia, South America, Syria, Asia-Pacific, and North America

342. Is the BJP in Trouble? Caste, Class, and the Urban-Rural Divide in Gujarat

Author:
Ashish Ranjan and Neelanjan Sircar
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
After 22 years in power, the BJP is feeling the heat this year in Gujarat's election campaign. This paper analyses the reasons for this sudden frustration with the BJP – with a particular focus on caste mobilisation, urban-rural division, and emerging class politics in Gujarat.
Topic:
Politics, Urbanization, Elections, Class, Rural, and Caste
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

343. On the importance of triangulating datasets to examine Indians on the move

Author:
S. Chandrasekhar, Mukta Naik, and Shamindra Nath Roy
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Beyond summing up salient migration trends from existing data sources; a new working paper by researchers from Centre for Policy Research and Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research (IGIDR) builds on a critique of the estimations made by the Economic Survey 2017 to outline fresh ideas for developing leading indicators that will help inform policy. This is particularly needed because even as Indian policymakers are increasingly recognising the linkages between migration, labour markets and economic development, the lack of frequently updated datasets limits our understanding of migration.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Labor Issues, Economy, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

344. Mapping Dilutions in a Central Law

Author:
Kanchi Kohli and Debayan Gupta
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Even as the Joint Parliamentary Committee’s report on the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement (RFCTLARR) is awaited, several states have already brought about changes that severely compromise the scope of clauses related to consent, Social Impact Assessment (SIA), food security and higher compensations. These changes also restrict the applicability of the 2013 law at state level. States have executed these changes through Rules under Section 109 of the Act, or have enacted their own state level land acquisition legislations using Article 254(2) of the Constitution of India. States, which have exercised the latter option, have managed to override the provisions of the central law. In the present case this has meant doing away with the provisions of consent and Social Impact Assessment. This paper traces how, and to what extent, the provisions of the central law have been diluted by the states.
Topic:
Security, Constitution, Land Law, and Legislation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

345. Comments on Draft National Energy Policy

Author:
Navroz K. Dubash, Partha Mukhopadhyay, Radhika Khosla, Shibani Ghosh, Ankit Bhardwaj, and Swetha Sridhar
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Draft National Energy Policy released by the Niti Aayog in June 2017 was a roadmap describing the priorities of the government with regards to India's energy future and a critical reference document for all actors working in this field. This working paper reflects the result of internal deliberations, aimed at understanding and reflecting on the draft NEP, with the aim of constructive feedback to NITI Aayog.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Government, Finance, and Legislation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

346. From Prior to Post: Legalising environmental violations?

Author:
Krithika A. Dinesh and Kanchi Kohli
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Between March 15 2017 and June 15 2017, 207 projects that violated the Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) Notification applied for an environmental clearance. These applications have come as a result of a notification that the Environment Ministry had passed on March 14th 2017 which gives an opportunity to projects that have violated conditions of the EIA Notification to apply for a clearance within a period of six months, ie by September 15. This notification was passed despite much criticism of the draft notification that was issued on 10 May 2016. The CPR-Namati Environmental Justice Program has analysed these applications to see what are the kind of geographical and sectorial spread of these violations and whether there are any trends emerging out of the applications that have come in till June 15. The Environment Ministry has already started looking at the applications through a Committee that has been set up for this. This Committee is headed by Dr SR Wate and had its first meeting on 22 June 2017. The Committee in its first meeting has examined ten applications. Out of these ten applications, the committee has already recommended seven for grant for a Terms of Reference subject to conditions. This working paper would be updated with the analysis of the applications that are coming in as well as the progress of these applications.
Topic:
Environment, Government, Natural Resources, Courts, and Legislation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

347. Gender and Urban Sanitation Inequalities in Everyday Lives

Author:
Susan Esme Chaplin
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Even though sanitation was established as a separate human right by the United Nations General Assembly in January 2016, there has an been overall failure to reduce by half the proportion of the global population without access to basic sanitation (Millennium Development Goal 7, Target C). The Sustainable Development Goals have targets of gender equality, and the sustainable and universal provision of sanitation. Hopefully this will mean increased attention being given to the interests and well-being of poor women and girls living in slums and informal settlements who still lack access to adequate sanitation. The sanitation needs of women and girls are different from those of men and boys because of the former’s requirements of personal safety, dignity and menstrual hygiene; there is also the issue of the disproportionate burden of unpaid labour in managing household sanitary needs. These inequalities in urban sanitation access have a great impact on the health, well-being and socio-economic status of women and girls. These inequalities continue to exist despite efforts to make the needs of poor urban women and girls an integral part of sanitation policies and project planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. Despite the emphasis of low-income countries on gender inequalities and sanitation in their development goals, programmes and projects, there is still only a limited number of qualitative and quantitative evidence-based research articles available focusing on gender and sanitation continue to be available. This number further decreases when it comes to gender and urban sanitation in the Global South. The grey literature is more numerous, particularly that commissioned by international development agencies and non-government organisations. Missing from much of this evidence-based and grey literature are studies on the broader social, economic and environmental impacts on poor women and girls of daily life without access to adequate and safe sanitation. This means that there is very little evidence-based literature which examines how these inequalities in sanitation access affect the lives of poor women and girls who have to queue each morning to use public toilets, or decide which open defecation (OD) sites are the least dangerous to use. Also missing are studies on the socio-economic, health and well-being impacts on and coping strategies of women working in the informal sector, poor women and girls with a disability, elderly women, adolescent girls and homeless women or those living on the pavements, who all lack access to adequate and safe sanitation facilities. These sanitation inequalities are exemplified by the time poor women and girls have to spend each morning queueing to use the toilet or getting up earlier to go with other women to OD sites. The necessity for such actions furthers gender inequalities because it puts at risk the time women have available for paid employment and other household responsibilities. Truelove (2011, p. 148) has argued that this ‘curtailment of opportunities (from income to education) due to water and sanitation activities reinforces a further level of physical insecurity and emotional violence, as some women become locked in a feedback cycle that brings them into distinct spaces and networks in order to access water and sanitation’. Women and girls living in slums often report instances of gender-based violence, shame and loss of dignity when walking along badly lit narrow paths to poorly designed and maintained community toilets or places of OD (Bapat & Agarwal 2003, Lennon 2011, McFarlane 2015, SHARE 2015 and Amnesty International 2010a). Phadke, Khan & Ranade (2011, p. 85), in a study of women and risk in Mumbai, have suggested that ‘[what] the lack of public toilets says is that women are less equal citizens than men and don’t deserve the same consideration’ in the design of urban spaces and the provision of urban infrastructures such as sanitation facilities. These gender inequalities continue to exist despite the use of the concept of ‘gender mainstreaming’ in water and sanitation projects since the mid-1990s, which was designed to make the needs of women and girls an integral part of sanitation policies and project planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. Instead, gender has become a term that is widely used in project documents and organisational policy documents ‘but is little theorised and ill-defined in most projects and supporting policy documents’ (O‘Reilly 2010, p. 49). Gender, according to the Water and Sanitation Program (2010, p. 9): is a concept that refers to socially constructed roles, behaviour, activities and attributes that a particular society considers appropriate and ascribes to men and women. These distinct roles and the relations between them may give rise to gender inequalities where one group is systematically favoured and holds advantages over another. Inequality in the position of men and women can and has worked against societies.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Water, Urbanization, Women, Inequality, and Sanitation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

348. Becoming Homeless, Surviving Homelessness: The lives of six working homeless men in Yamuna Pushta, Delhi

Author:
Ashwin Parulkar
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This working paper from CPR’s and TISS' Understanding Metropolitan Homelessness project tells stories of six migrant homeless men from Uttar Pradesh and Nagaland who live, for various durations, in shelters along the western bank of the Yamuna river in North Delhi, locally referred to as ‘Yamuna Pushta’. Through tracing their journeys from villages and towns to Delhi’s streets, the paper explores how these men became homeless and how they survive homelessness in Delhi. This project, which is funded by ICSSR and is being conducted by CPR and TISS is led by Partha Mukhopadhyay and Ashwin Parulkar at CPR and Tarique Mohammed at TISS. A key objective of the project in general, and this paper in particular, is to better understand the structural causes of homelessness (e.g. poverty, unemployment) and how these are interlinked – through capturing the lived experiences of the homeless in their voice. This research aims to inform successful policy and implementation responses to address the current ineffectiveness of outreach efforts to homeless people in Delhi, despite interventions by the Supreme Court and support schemes designed by the government. The six stories in the paper uncover conditions, and combinations, of extreme poverty and physical abuse experienced by these men in their native places before they left home. It traces how they secure jobs, and survive, in daily wage, informal economies without housing, as well as access social services like shelter, health and drug de-addiction programs to endure the streets of Delhi. According to a 2010 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) survey, 87% of nearly 55,955 homeless adults worked jobs in the informal economy, entailing ‘the most rigorous activities which are essential for movement and building in the city.’ This paper describes in detail the varied experiences these six men have in such jobs that they find through contractors in informal labour ‘markets’ (mandis); as cooks and servers in small eateries (dhabas), and as wedding catering party workers. Through their trajectories, Parulkar also explores differences between working homeless men who return home to support families and those who have no ties with their native places and live on the streets indefinitely. For a sense of how these men became homeless and the work conditions they experience while homeless, listen to audio samples of interviews (above) conducted during field research.
Topic:
Migration, Poverty, Social Policy, Unemployment, and Homelessness
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

349. Horizontal and Vertical Inequalities Explaining Disparities in Access to Urban Sanitation

Author:
Aditya Bhol
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Burgeoning urbanisation coupled with policy implementation gaps have resulted in growing disparities in the provision of public infrastructure services in urban areas of India. Apart from the impact of this, a household’s ability to procure basic amenities is also subject to its economic and social condition and the prevalence of social or spatial inequalities. This paper considers a basic household amenity – toilets – and using survey data gauges a household’s likelihood of owning one based on economic and social conditions and infrastructural parameters such as water supply and drainage using a binary multivariate logistic regression model. Horizontal or social group-based inequalities, which are often neglected in the sanitation discourse in India, are found to have a significant impact on access to toilets along with the existence of disparities based on consumption expenditure and drainage. The findings ascertain the existence of multidimensional disparities at the state level, refuting centralised programmes adopted to meet Sustainable Development Goals.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Urbanization, Inequality, Sustainable Development Goals, and Sanitation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

350. Out of school children in India: Some insights on what we know and what we don't

Author:
Kiran Bhatty, Radhika Saraf, and Vrinda Gupta
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The focus of the study, and the analysis in this paper, is on the issue of student attendance, in order to capture its extent – both continuous and sporadic - as well as to highlight its relevance in the larger meaning of an “out-of-school child”. The analysis is focused on possible household and school factors that can explain the variation in attendance across social groups and gender as well as across school type. In other words, this paper is an attempt to i) provide a more accurate estimate of OOSC using both household and school level data on children as well as an expanded definition of dropped out by including sporadic attendance data; ii) document the variation in attendance patterns by social groups and iii) unpack reasons for low attendance based on a set of household and school level factors. Accordingly, after describing the research and data collection, the paper is divided into two parts: Part I describes the survey findings and estimates of OOSC and attendance patterns of students and teachers. Part II provides an analysis of the links between child attendance and various household and school level factors.
Topic:
Education, Infrastructure, Children, and Child Poverty
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia