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21. Fostering Growth in Digital Trade

Author:
Don Stephenson
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
The shifting trends in trade, especially given the growth in communications capacity and reduced cost of computing have altered traditional economic development. India and Canada have a shared commercial interest in E-trade. Both countries need to align their resources to frame trade rules of the new digital economy, to mutual benefit.
Topic:
Communications, Economic Growth, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
South Asia, Canada, India, and North America

22. Why Are Women Opting Out of India’s Growing Economy?

Author:
Alex Tammaro and Alex Katz
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Despite India’s strong economic growth, women’s labor force participation in India has decreased—from 33 percent in 2005, to 27 percent in 2010, to 24 percent in 2019. Even with increased investment in women’s access to education and professional opportunity, women are leaving the labor market, dampening economic productivity and innovation. So why are women opting out? Bhavani Arabandi offered answers in a presentation to Urban Institute staff titled Karma and the Myth of the Indian Superwoman. Arabandi spoke to highly skilled, highly educated Indian women as part of an ethnographic study to determine why they step away from lucrative, fulfilling careers. She examined how structural barriers—the disadvantages, constraints, and discouragement women face—are “treated as normal by society and often internalized.”
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Economic Growth, and Participation
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

23. Is Corruption Detrimental for Economic Growth? A Panel Data Analysis of Selected South Asian Economies

Author:
Jahanzed Khan, Rana Muhammad Adeel-Farooq, Kashif Akram, and Muhammad Sharif Abbasi
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The debate regarding the influence of corruption on economic growth is increasing. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of corruption on economic growth of developing South Asian Economies between 2002-2017 period. The study uses fixed effects, random effects and robust least square estimators for the empirical estimation. The outcomes show that in developing South Asian countries corruption is working like grease and enhancing the economic growth. Nevertheless, the study based on the theoretical and empirical literature recommends these countries to formulate policies to lower corruption as it harms the institutional quality, adversely affects the investment decisions of the firms, system of meritocracy, and is considered globally as a moral decay of the society. These all in turn, in the long run adversely affects the economic growth.
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, Economic Growth, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:
South Asia and Asia

24. Paradox of Female Labor Force Participation in South Asia

Author:
Hina Mubeen, Arshad Syed Karim, and Sadaf Alam
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Worldwide, startling gender disparities exist in employment. There has been a shift in gender culture in the present era which requires both men and women to have paid jobs and share household responsibilities. South Asian region with leading economies like India, Bangladesh and Nepal, presents an interesting paradox for research. Hence, the aim of this conceptual paper is to understand the push and pull factors which influence female labor force participation in the South Asian region in purview of various social, cultural and institutional impediments to engaging into their economic role. Specifically in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the female labor force participation rates are significantly lower than the other South Asian nations, scarce conceptual as well as empirical researches have been conducted till date to analyze the underlying reasons and consequences of gender inequality or in labor force participation. The article highlights that in case of majority of the developing countries of South Asia, there are numerous complications associated with prevalent gender stereotypes within the society and the division of labor. The author argues that it fails to acknowledge women’s triple role in the society. Lack of adequate institutional framework can be one of the prime reasons of low scores for the South Asian region that restrains women to enter productive employment sectors. Discrimination against women in labor force can be costly in the course of development. If properly utilized in the labor market, with the provision of an enabling environment, this huge workforce can make significant contributions to the economic development and growth of the region. Ultimately, it would aid in attaining the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger from the world.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Economic Growth, Feminism, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
South Asia and Asia

25. Macroeconomic Determinents of Crime in South Asian Countries: A Panal Data Approach

Author:
Rana Hazma Gull, Kauser Perveen, and Amber Bakhsh Basit
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This research explores the economic determinants of crime in case of a panel of South Asian countries (Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh). To empirically determine the relationship between crime and its determinants, data for the concerned variables are collected for the period of 2003 to 2017 from different sources like World Development Indicator (WDI), National Police Survey and UNESCO. In this study, education, economic growth, population and unemployment are used as the determinants of crime. To find out the relationship Random Effect Model (REM) and Fixed Effect Model (FEM) models are constructed. After applying diagnostic test, it is found that Fixed Effect Model is appropriate. But the FEM model violates the assumptions of classical linear regression model (CLRM) because there is hertoscedasticity and autocorrelation problem in the data. To robust these problems, feasible generalized least square (FGLS) model has been applied. The results of FGLS revealed that education has negative and significant impact on crime. Contrary, population, economic growth and unemployment have positive and significant impact on crime. The study recommends that government should give preference to education sector. On the other hand, government should control the population growth and unemployment rate.
Topic:
Crime, Education, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, and Models
Political Geography:
South Asia and Asia

26. Economic Aspect of Conflict Transformation in Balochistan (2001-2008)

Author:
Saima Butt and Rehana Saeed Hashmi
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Economic development tends to bring stability in conflict ridden areas and mostly acts as a prescription for political stability and sustainability. In this context, Balochistan is one such study which implicates that deprivation and economic backwardness have been key players in intensifying conflict within and between the federal and provincial governments. Relative economic deprivation in Balochistan has become one of the root causes of conflict in the area. This study would focuses on developmental projects introduced by President General Pervez Musharraf in 2005 to pacify the intensity of insurgency in Balochistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Punjab, and Balochistan

27. India’s Great Slowdown: What Happened? What’s the Way Out?

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We examine the pattern of growth in the 2010s. Standard explanations cannot account for the long slowdown, followed by a sharp collapse. Our explanation stresses both structural and cyclical factors, with finance as the distinctive, common element. In the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), two key drivers of growth decelerated. Export growth slowed sharply as world trade stagnated, while investment fell victim to a homegrown Balance Sheet crisis, which came in two waves. The first wave—the Twin Balance Sheet crisis, encompassing banks and infrastructure companies—arrived when the infrastructure projects started during India’s investment boom of the mid-2000s began to go sour. The economy nonetheless continued to grow, despite temporary, adverse demonetization and GST shocks, propelled first by income gains from the large fall in international oil prices, then by government spending and a non-bank financial company (NBFC)-led credit boom. This credit boom financed unsustainable real estate inventory accumulation, inflating a bubble that finally burst in 2019. Consequently, consumption too has now sputtered, causing growth to collapse. As a result, India is now facing a Four Balance Sheet challenge—the original two sectors, plus NBFCs and real estate companies—and is trapped in an adverse interest-growth dynamic, in which risk aversion is leading to high interest rates, depressing growth, and generating more risk aversion. Standard remedies are unavailable: monetary policy is stymied by a broken transmission mechanism; large fiscal stimulus will only push up already-high interest rates, worsening the growth dynamic. The traditional structural reform agenda—land and labour market measures—are important for the medium run but will not address the current problems. Addressing the Four Balance Sheet problem decisively will be critical to durably reviving growth. Raising agricultural productivity is also high priority. And even before that, a Data Big Bang is needed to restore trust and enable better policy design.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Economy, Global Political Economy, Economic Growth, and Global Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

28. Validating India's GDP Growth Estimates

Author:
Arvind Subramanian
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
My recent research paper “India's GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood, Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications,” (hereafter “GDP paper”) and the associated op-ed in the Indian Express on June 11, 2019 have generated considerable debate. This is encouraging because serious argument and counter-argument are the basis for good policy-making. Since the issue itself is of great importance, the counter-arguments to my analysis warrant a considered response. That is the aim of this note, which is a complement to the original paper, addressing both the larger issues and some of the specific points that have been raised. The note is structured as follows. Section II describes my engagement with India’s GDP estimation when I was Chief Economic Adviser. Section III elaborates on the framework/approach underlying the GDP paper. Section IV makes explicit the key puzzle surrounding India’s growth estimates, and addresses the possible explanations for it. Section V explores the puzzle in greater detail. Section VI provides additional cross-country evidence on growth and price deflators, which support the findings of the original paper, namely that growth during 2011-16 was likely overestimated by a significant margin. Section VII addresses two broad objections to the main findings. Section VIII discusses some of the methodological critiques of the paper. Section IX offers some thoughts on the way forward.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, International Development, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

29. India's GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood, Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications

Author:
Arvind Subramanian
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
India changed its data sources and methodology for estimating real gross domestic product (GDP) for the period since 2011-12. This paper shows that this change has led to a significant overestimation of growth. Official estimates place annual average GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 at about 7 percent. We estimate that actual growth may have been about 4.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of 3.5 - 5.5 percent. The evidence, based on disaggregated data from India and cross-sectional/panel regressions, is robust. Lending further credence to the evidence, part of the overestimation can be related to a key methodological change, which affected the measurement of the formal manufacturing sector. These findings alter our understanding of India’s growth performance after the Global Financial Crisis, from spectacular to solid. Two important policy implications follow: the entire national income accounts estimation should be revisited, harnessing new opportunities created by the Goods and Services Tax to significantly improve it; and restoring growth should be the urgent priority for the new government.
Topic:
GDP, Global Political Economy, Economic Growth, and Global Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

30. Incentivising Pro-Labour Reforms

Author:
Alice Evans
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper shows that countries may reduce labour repression if they perceive this as conducive to export growth. This paper traces what happened before, in the presence of, and then following the withdrawal of international economic incentives for pro-labour reforms in Vietnam and Bangladesh. The Government of Vietnam announced it would allow independent trade unions, in order to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and increase market access. Similarly, the Government of Bangladesh rescinded restrictions on unions, following global condemnation of Rana Plaza and fear of buyers leaving en masse. Both governments reduced labour repression to promote export growth. With high-level authorisation, Vietnamese and Bangladeshi activists and reformists became less fearful, and mobilised for substantive change. However, these economic incentives were short-lived: after Trump’s election, the USA withdrew from TPP; buyers continued to source from Bangladesh, and squeezed prices (without requiring labour reforms). Both governments then amped up labour repression - notwithstanding private regulation, economic upgrading, industry growth, and mass strikes.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Reform, Economic Growth, and Trans-Pacific Partnership
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, and Vietnam