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431. Venezuela: Nearing the Moment of Truth

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On December 19, forces opposed to President Hugo Chávez turned over thousands of petitions to the National Electoral Council (CNE) requesting a referendum that would determine whether the Venezuelan leader will remain in office until his present term ends in 2006. Theoretically the council should have rendered a judgment on the authenticity of the signatures within thirty days. As this Outlook goes to press, however, the verdict remains unclear. The delay is perhaps understandable: a fateful step in Venezuela's future hinges upon the outcome.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South America

432. Argentina Has Seen the Past—And It Works (For Now)

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Probably more than any other Latin American country, the Argentine Republic is susceptible to abrupt changes of spirit and mood. Ten years ago it was apparently hurling itself, pell-mell, into the twenty-first century as South America's great example of economic liberalization and diplomatic alignment with the United States. Today both notions are distinctly out of fashion there, and no wonder—the advantages of both were drastically oversold to the public by the administration of President Carlos Menem (1989-1999). At the end of 2000 the economy virtually collapsed; for a time it appeared as if the country might actually dissolve as a coherent political community. Thanks to the strong hand of Senator Eduardo Duhalde, who took over at the end of 2000 from Fernando de la Rúa, Menem's successor, civic order was restored, though the last three years have been the worst in Argentina's modern history, more dismal even than the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

433. News or Noise? An Analysis of Brazilian GDP Announcements

Author:
Rebeca de la Rocque Palis, Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos, and Patrice Robitaille
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

434. Firm-Level Access To International Capital Markets: Evidence From Chilean Equities

Author:
Francis E. Warnock and Sara B. Holland
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
High growth, liquid Chilean firms have greater relative weights in U.S. equity portfolios, but the most important determinant of a firm's portfolio weight is whether it is listed on a U.S. exchange. Cross-listing does not, however, appear to have permanent benefits: Weights in U.S. portfolios of firms that cross-listed in the mid-1990s increased at the expense of firms that cross-listed earlier. Put another way, firms appear to be able to access international capital at the time of the cross-listing, but this access may well be short-lived.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South America

435. La Posguerra Colombiana: Divagaciones Sobre la Venganza, La Justicia y la Reconciliación

Author:
Iván Orozco
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This essay explores the relationships between vengeance, justice and reconciliation in contexts of war and transitions towards democracy, with a special emphasis and interest on the Colombian situation. It aims at easing, at least partly, the tensions facing peace makers and human rights activists who deal with the issue of “impunity” for atrocious crimes perpetrated by the state and other political organizations. It does so by distinguishing between vertical and horizontal processes of victimization and by distributing functions between peace makers and human rights activists in accord with this distinction. Based upon the premise that transitional Justice always entails a compromise between punishment, truth and reconciliation, the paper argues for a certain priority of punishment in contexts of vertical victimization and for a partial precedence of reconciliation in contexts of horizontal victimization. The notion of “gray areas” where the distinction between victims and perpetrators, best represented by certain kinds of “collaborators” and, “avengers” collapses, lies at the heart of the logics of forgiveness and reconciliation. After characterizing the Colombian conflict as a case of horizontal victimization—i.e., symmetric barbarism—the paper proposes a model of transitional justice for Colombia built on the primacy of truth and forgiveness for the inhabitants of gray zones and punishment for the engineers and managers of barbarism.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

436. ¿Crisis en el Sindicalismo en América Latina?

Author:
Francisco Zapata
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Economic adjustment policies, trade liberalization, privatization of State enterprise and transformation of labor markets and labor market institutions relate to a process of transition between a model of import substitution industrialization and a "new economic model" characterized by the transnationalization of Latin American internal markets. All these elements contribute to change the premises of the organization of unions and to weaken their role in the negotiation of salaries and working conditions, their intervention in the regulation of employment and their participation in the administration of social security and health benefits. On the basis of the cases of Brazil, Chile and Mexico, the presentation will provide a context in which to pose the question of the crisis of Latin American labor and examine some of the alternatives that are available for trade unions in the new economic conditions.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, Central America, North America, Mexico, and Chile

437. The Cost of Resolving Small Business Conflicts: The Case of Peru

Author:
Keith Henderson and Alvaro Herrero
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of judicial inefficiency on small businesses in Peru. It is based on the hypothesis that chronic problems in the region's judicial systems have negative consequences on the development of micro, small and medium - sized businesses. Our analysis focuses, first, on the relationship between Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and the legal system. Secondly, it investigates the decisions made by SMEs to mitigate the effects of bad court performance. Lastly, it identifies several ways in which judicial inefficiency is transferred to the business sector. The analysis also attempts to quantify the economic impact of judicial inefficiency.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Middle East, South America, and Peru

438. A Resurgent MERCOSUR: Confronting Economic Crises and Negotiating Trade Agreements

Author:
Thomas Andrew O'Keefe
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Almost from the day it was launched on March 26, 1991, skeptics have predicted the imminent collapse of the Common Market of the South (Mercado Común del Sur — MERCOSUR), while some economists have fretted about the project's supposed protectionist designs to create a trade fortress. The most memorable example of the latter was a 1996 report written by a World Bank economist that relied on out-of-date trade statistics and attributed to MERCOSUR policies that were actually pre-existing national automotive regimes. More recent tirades have tried to blame Argentina's economic meltdown on its MERCOSUR membership. A well-known economist from a New York City investment bank has even gone as far as to proclaim MERCOSUR dead. Given all the invective directed against efforts to integrate South America's Southern Cone economically over the past decade, it is not surprising that MERCOSUR is misunderstood by many in North America.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

439. The Carter Center News, Spring 2003

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Leaders from the Western Hemisphere called on their governments at the conclusion of a Carter Center conference to implement partial public funding of campaigns and fully disclose election donations and expenditures to help restore confidence in government.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and South America

440. Democratic Politics in Latin America: New Debates and Research Frontiers

Author:
Gerardo Munck
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
This assessment of research on contemporary democratic politics in Latin America is organized around the distinction between institutional and alternative approaches. Initially it considers institutionalism on its own terms and, through an assessment of the debate about the institutional causes of gridlock, draws attention to key strengths of this literature. Thereafter, some of the limitations of an institutional approach are addressed and the possibility of combining insights developed from institutional and alternative theoretical perspectives is emphasized. The suggested terms of integration, however, are not symmetric. With regard to causal theorizing, the need for institutionalists to borrow ideas, especially from the broader literature on political regimes, is underlined. With regard to theorizing outcomes, in contrast, the need for students of the quality of democracy to incorporate contributions made by institutionalists is highlighted. Throughout, various pointed suggestions to advance research are offered.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America