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351. Bolivia's New Constitution: Avoiding Violent Confrontation

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bolivia is moving dangerously toward renewed confrontation and violence as the government of President Evo Morales and his Movement toward Socialism (MAS) party seek to embed sweeping state reforms in a new constitution. Their proposals are being sharply criticised in the Constituent Assembly (CA) by opposition leaders representing the eastern lowlands and the urban middle classes, and the dispute is widening the breach in an already polarised country. The CA's life has been extended to 14 December 2007 but time is not on delegates' side. In the next four months, Bolivia's political leaders need to engage in a wide-ranging dialogue to reach national consensus on fundamental issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

352. ECUADOR: OVERCOMING INSTABILITY?

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ecuador has been Latin America's most unstable democracy for a decade. Starting with the ousting of President Abdalá Bucaram by Congress and street protests in 1997, weak, temporary governments have been the rule. In 2000, Jamil Mahuad was toppled by a civilian-military coup, and in 2005, protests brought down Lucio Gutiérrez, who had helped oust Mahuad. The government of Rafael Correa of the Alianza País(AP) movement, who took office in January and enjoys record-high approval ratings, is applying "shock therapy" to overwhelm the discredited opposition and pave the way for a constituent assembly (CA) intended to produce "profound, radical and fast change". This triggered one of the sharpest clashes between branches of government since the return to democracy in 1979, including the Electoral Court's firing of 57 opposition members of Congress in March, accompanied by street violence. To restore stability to the troubled country, Correa will need to pay more attention to upholding the rule of law, ensuring a level CA playing field and building consensus for fundamental reforms.
Topic:
Development and Politics
Political Geography:
South America

353. Colombia's New Armed Groups

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The disbanding of the paramilitary United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC) between 2003 and 2006 is seen by the administration of President Alvaro Uribe as a vital step toward peace. While taking some 32,000 AUC members out of the conflict has certainly altered the landscape of violence, there is growing evidence that new armed groups are emerging that are more than the simple “criminal gangs” that the government describes. Some of them are increasingly acting as the next generation of paramilitaries, and they require a more urgent and more comprehensive response from the government.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

354. Venezuela: Hugo Chá¡vez's Revolution

Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After eight years in power, President Hugo Chávez won an overwhelming re-election in December 2006. Flush with oil revenues, bolstered by high approval ratings and at the start of a six-year term, he expresses confidence about advancing what he calls his Bolivarian Revolution, named after Simón Bolívar, the country's independence hero, and installing his still only vaguely defined “Socialism of the 21st Century”. There are concerns in Venezuela and much of the hemisphere, however, that to do so the ex-colonel and one-time coup leader may be willing to sacrifice democratic principles. He is not yet a dictator and for the most part has not tried to act in a dictatorial manner, but the trend toward autocracy is strong. If he continues to build personal power at the expense of other institutions and militarise much of the government and political life, there will be serious risks for internal conflict, especially if the oil boom that cushions the economy falters.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Tanzania

355. Bolivia's Reforms: The Danger of New Conflicts

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, will complete a year in office on 22 January amid rising civil unrest. His government and its opponents are locked in confrontation over institutional reforms that would rewrite the constitution, end an inequitable land tenure system and return economic power to the state. Extremists are coming to the fore in both camps in a crisis that differs from previous ones because the stakes involve a proposal for a very different national model that the traditional elites see as a fundamental threat to their survival. Unless menacing rhetoric ends and dialogue, mediation and compromise begin immediately, widespread violence may result in 2007.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

356. Argentina on Kirchner's Time

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Since its financial crisis six years ago, Argentina has faded somewhat from the headlines. This is no doubt due in large part to the disproportionate space our media outlets now devote to Iraq and Iran, but also to the fact that other Latin American news stories—particularly Fidel Castro's surgery and the antics of Venezuela's clownish president Hugo Chávez—have dominated coverage of the area. Argentina is not, however, a negligent regional actor.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Argentina, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

357. When Dictators Die

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The recent passing of Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet and the events surrounding his last illness, death, and burial remind us that we are living through the last moments of a Latin American drama which began nearly a half-century ago with the Cuban Revolution. The only thing lacking to bring the curtain down once and for all is the disappearance of Fidel Castro, who began the whole business. Though no one knows precisely when that eventuality will occur, the Cuban strongman's unprecedented decision last July to transfer effective power to his younger brother Raúl and his failure to reappear publicly after abdominal surgery after nearly six months suggest it cannot be far off.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:
South America, Cuba, and Latin America

358. Brazilian Counterterrorism Efforts: Legislative Progress, But Little Action on the Ground

Author:
David Jacobson and Matther Levitt
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In March, Brazilian authorities drafted a new antiterrorism law instituting stiff penalties for a variety of violent acts committed by both individuals and organizations. The new legislation, expected to pass Brazil's congress in a modified form, will likely be used to target criminal gangs from Brazil's indigent favela neighborhoods, not Middle Eastern terrorist groups operating in the Argentina-Brazil-Paraguay Tri-Border Area (TBA). Brazil denies that illegal terrorist activities are being conducted in the TBA, and it does not regard groups like Hizballah or Hamas as terrorist organizations. Much of the legal foundation needed to successfully combat international terrorism is already in place in Brazil, but the government has not demonstrated the will to confront the problem.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

359. Analysis of a publishing position: The case of Colombian president Alvaro Uribe re-election

Author:
Ana Cristina Vélez López
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
This article is a descriptive and analytical text. The investigation of which the article is a product is about the presidential re-election in Colombia. That research began as an analysis of eighteen editorials published by the most important newspaper in Colombia: El Tiempo. The method of analysis was ACD (Critical Analysis of speech) by Teun A. Van Dijk. The investigation concluded that El Tiempo changed radically its position about the immediately presidential re-election because the editorial did not support it at the begging but at the end it supports the re-election with own name: Alvaro Uribe Velez.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

360. New Hopes for Negotiated Solutions in Colombia

Author:
Virginia M. Bouvier
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This working paper analyzes recent peacemaking efforts between the Colombian government and two of the remaining armed guerrilla groups—the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces- Popular Army (FARC-EP) and the National Liberation Army (ELN). It evaluates the demobilization process with the paramilitary umbrella organization known as the United Self- Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), and current efforts to implement the Justice and Peace law that regulates the paramilitary process. The paper analyzes the roles of third-party actors— primarily the church, civil society more broadly, and the international community—in peace initiatives. In Colombia, these roles include pressuring for peace, setting the stage for peace accords, establishing spaces for dialogue and democratic discussion, creating the mechanisms for conflict resolution necessary for a sustainable peace, facilitating or mediating peace processes themselves, and implementing and monitoring peace agreements.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America