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331. Correcting Course: Victims and the Justice and Peace Law in Colombia - Latin America Report N°29

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The more than 155,000 victims of Colombia's conflict registered to date with the attorney general's Justice and Peace Unit (JPU) – mostly those who suffered from the paramilitaries – are mainly onlookers to, not actors in, a lagging transitional justice process. Over three years after passage, implementation of the Justice and Peace Law (JPL) is stymied by the relative disinterest in promoting victims' rights of the Uribe government and much of political and civil society. The problems are exacerbated by serious operational and financial bottlenecks in the judicial process and assistance and reparations to victims, as well as the persistence of armed conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) insurgents and the emergence of new illegal armed groups (NIAGs) and paramilitary successors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil Society, Government, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

332. HIV/AIDS and POLICE

Author:
Hilary Pearce
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Security Sector Management
Institution:
Centre for Security Sector Management
Abstract:
Police play a complex and interlinked role with the communities they serve and the occurrence of HIV/AIDS adds an extra layer of complexity to that relationship. There is a lack of solid data and empirical research about HIV/AIDS and the police, its impacts and the lessons which have so far been identified. The vast majority of conclusions which have been drawn are speculative and based on anecdotal evidence. Furthermore, out of all the uniformed forces, the police are the forgotten force with to-date much of the 'security sector' research derived solely from the activity of military forces. Where the literature refers to the police as part of uniformed actors, they are quickly forgotten in the substance of the research. Consequently much of the evidence and debate surrounding uniformed actors is based solely on facts and figures taken from the world's armies.
Political Geography:
South America

333. Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Argentine Broad Money Demand

Author:
Neil R. Ericsson and Steven B. Kamin
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
his paper assesses the empirical merits of PcGets and Autometrics–two recent algorithms for computer-automated model selection–using them to improve upon Kamin and Ericsson’s (1993) model of Argentine broad money demand. The selected model is an economically sensible and statistically satisfactory error correc- tion model, in which cointegration between money, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rate depreciation depends on the inclusion of a “ratchet” variable that cap- tures irreversible effects of inflation. Short-run dynamics differ markedly from the long run. Algorithmically based model selection complements opportunities for the researcher to contribute value added in the empirical analysis.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Finance, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

334. Transitions from Charismatic Rule: Theories of Leadership Change and Cuba's Post-Fidel Succession

Author:
Bert Hoffmann
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
For theories of political succession and charismatic authority, the almost half‐century long rule of Fidel Castro presents an extraordinary test case since Fidel in July 2006 handed over power 'temporarily' to his deputy and brother Raúl. On the background of Max Weber's work on charismatic rule, the paper analyzes the way in which the Cuban leadership has responded to the succession question and identifies four aspects in which it differs from the succession problems typically attributed to charismatic rule: Cuba's longstanding exceptionalism regarding the 'second man' behind the leader; the succession during the life‐time of the leader with a sui generis modus of 'cohabitation' between the outgoing and the incoming leader; the routinization of charisma which domestically allows a bureaucratic succession model with the Communist Party, rather than any individual, being postulated as Fidel Castro's heir; and as a correlate to the latter, the ritual transmission of Fidel's charisma to a heir beyond the nation‐state, Venezuela's Hugo Chávez, as the new charismatic leader to continue Fidel Castro's universal revolutionary mission.
Topic:
Communism, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

335. Emerging Middle Powers' Soft Balancing Strategy: State and Perspectives of the IBSA Dialogue Forum

Author:
Daniel Flemes
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
How can weaker states influence stronger ones? This article offers a case study of one recent exercise in coalition building among Southern middle powers, the 'India, Brazil, South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue Forum'. The analysis outlines five major points: first, it argues that the three emerging players can be defined as middle powers in order to frame their foreign policy behavior and options at the global level. Second, soft balancing is a suitable concept to explain IBSA's strategy in global institutions. Third, institutional foreign policy instruments are of pivotal significance in IBSA's soft balancing strategy. Fourth, the potential gains of IBSA's sector cooperation, particularly in trade, are limited due to a lack of complementarity of the three economies. And fifth, IBSA's perspectives and impact on the international system will depend on four variables: IBSA's ability to focus on distinct areas of cooperation, the consolidation of its common strategy of soft balancing, the institutionalization of IBSA, and its enlargement in order to obtain more weight in global bargains.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

336. Patronage-Preserving Federalism? Legislative Malapportionment and Subnational Fiscal Policies in Argentina

Author:
Jorge Gordin
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper builds on institutional analysis to generate new conclusions about the economic viability of federalism. It does so by suggesting that Weingast´s seminal model of marketpreserving federalism falls short of accounting for the poor fiscal performance of multitiered systems in the developing world. This theoretical deficiency stems to a large extent from the insufficient attention paid by this model to the institutional complexity of federal systems, particularly the public policy effects of legislative malapportionment. Subsequent to an analytical discussion of the potential public spending and distributive politics distortions resulting from overrepresentation, we offer preliminary empirical evidence from Argentina, a federation exhibiting one of the most decentralized fiscal systems in the world and severe imbalances in the territorial distribution of legislative and economic resources. The findings show not only that said imbalances lead to sub‐optimal fiscal results but also that they have a mutually‐reinforcing relationship with regionalized patronage.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Argentina, and South America

337. PolicyWatch #1267: Dangerous Partners: Targeting the Iran-Hizballah Alliance

Author:
Jake Lipton and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
July 18 marked the thirteenth anniversary of Argentina's deadliest terrorist attack: a 1994 car bombing carried out by Hizballah at Iran's behest. The attack targeted the Asociacion Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA), a Jewish community organization, killing 85 and wounding more than 200. Last week also saw the release of a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) warning of an increased likelihood that Hizballah could attack U.S. soil if it, or Iran, feels directly threatened by the United States. Washington continues to take action against the organization, but given Hizballah's impressive fundraising capabilities and Iranian support -- both highlighted recently by Argentinean officials involved in the long-running AMIA case -- the task is challenging.
Topic:
Intelligence and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Argentina, and South America

338. Digital Poverty: Concept and Measurement, with an Application to Peru

Author:
Roxana Barrantes Cáceres
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper discusses the notions of demand, poverty, information needs, and information and communication technologies (ICTs) to offer a concept of digital poverty, which may be useful to estimate the digital poverty level in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper is composed of two sections. The first section contains a conceptual discussion of digital poverty, its types and possible levels, and the underlying economic foundations. ICTs are defined based on their use and the conditions for such use. Digital poverty is therefore defined as a lack of ICTs and might be a feature of any population segment, whether or not economically poor. The second section of this paper is an empirical attempt to validate the classification, using data from a household survey (ENAHO) carried out in Peru. The limitations in measuring digital poverty at the household level instead of at the individual level are acknowledged. Lastly, the conclusions reached, possible implications for public policy, and the avenues open for further research are presented.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Caribbean, and Peru

339. Confronting Colonialism: Maryknoll Catholic Missionaries in Peru and Guatemala, 1943–968

Author:
Susan Fitzpatrick Behrens
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
My goal in writing this paper was to try to explain how Catholicism became embedded in the social and political structures of Peru and Guatemala and how this affected Maryknoll proselytization in Puno and Huehuetenango in the twentieth century. I argue that during the colonial period Catholic clergy served as intermediaries between indigenous communities and Spanish officials. The character of their relationship depended on local demands for labor and was, as a result, distinct in Peru and Guatemala. Demand for labor was consistently high in Puno because it was near the site of the Potosí mines, recognized as the most important source of income for the Spanish crown during the colonial period. This relationship ensured that Catholic clergy acted as enforcers of Spanish efforts to dominate indigenous communities. For their part, Andean caciques charged with protecting community interests and mediating with Spanish officials sought to limit incursions by Spanish clergy, economic elites, and governing officials. By contrast, Guatemala was an economic backwater during the colonial period. Spanish clergy came to act as “defenders of the Indians” in opposition to the interests of Spanish economic elites and governing officials. Mayan people engaged with Catholicism to restructure their communities and to establish barriers to incursions by outsiders.
Topic:
Civil Society and Religion
Political Geography:
South America, Yugoslavia, Peru, and Guatemala

340. The Quality of Democracy in Small South American Countries: The Case of Paraguay

Author:
Diego Abente Brun
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper addresses the issue of the low quality of democracy in Paraguay. It defines the quality of democracy in terms of regime performance rather than regime nature, i.e. not in terms of how intense or weak its democratic characteristic are, but rather in terms of how legitimate, effective, and efficacious the regime is. The theoretical argument rests on the need to shift from the prevailing agency- paradigm to a structural paradigm. Thus, it focuses on the socio-economic matrix of an invertebrate society lacking vigorous collective actors as the cause of the persistence of widely clientelistic parties. In turn, it sees the hegemony of these parties as the cause of the prevalence of an extreme particularistic, pork-barrel, and volatile pattern of public policy which has produced since the beginning of the transition twenty years of stagnation, high levels of poverty and profound popular disenchantment. It ends with a brief examination of the emergence of Fernando Lugo as a chiliastic upsurge that could tatter the clientelistic structure and describes the current moment as kairotic.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
South America and Paraguay