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51. Argentina Alert: Polls Apart

Author:
Carlos M. Regúnaga
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The race for the Argentine presidency is now in the next to last lap. The first ballot will be cast April 27, but for the first time in history it looks as if a second ballot will be required. If it is, it will take place on May 18. At this juncture, public opinion and pundits' predictions are poles apart. But before analyzing them, it might be useful to remember the electoral system now in effect.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

52. Colombia: President Uribe's Democratic Security Policy

Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More than any of his predecessors, President Alvaro Uribe has made combating the insurgents the overriding priority and defining objective of the Colombian government. Through modest achievements on the ground a sense of public security has begun to be re-established. However, Uribe's "Democratic Security Policy" (DSP), the long-term strategy promised to lend coherence to the security effort, has been stalled for nearly a year by political infighting and fundamental arguments over how best to bring the 40-year conflict to a close. Without some serious modifications, it is doubtful that it will achieve its goal.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

53. Colombia: Negotiating with the Paramilitaries

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Eighteen months after the rupture of peace talks between its predecessor and the main insurgent group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Uribe administration has entered upon a high risk-high gain negotiating process with the main paramilitary group, the United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC), that will test its skill and its good faith.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

54. Colombia's Humanitarian Crisis

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This ICG report argues that it is paramount that much more decisive action be taken immediately to confront Colombia's humanitarian crisis. Massive human hardship and suffering has become a constant feature of life as the armed conflict has expanded and intensified. The government's humanitarian policy has encountered many difficulties, largely because of the magnitude of the crisis, the lack of state capacity, the reluctance to divert fiscal resources from military to social programs, and the wide gap between policy planning and reality.The launching of the Inter-agency Humanitarian Action Plan (HAP) by the UN in 2002 reflects a growing international awareness that more coordinated and effective action is urgently needed. But even more needs to be done, including achieving better coordination between the government and humanitarian organisations and increasing current levels of international humanitarian aid.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Migration
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

55. Colombia and its Neighbours: The Tentacles of Instability

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While the Colombian armed conflict has deep roots in history, increasingly it is fuelled by the inflow of weapons, explosives and chemical precursors and financed by an outflow of drugs. The tentacles of instability criss-cross the 9000 kilometres of land and water that separate Colombia from and link it to its five neighbours, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Venezuela and Panama. Those borders are largely uncontrolled, and the Colombian government has stepped up its demands for fuller regional cooperation. The neighbours are greatly reluctant, partly because of internal crises and partly because of their view of the conflict. Yet, Colombia needs more help from them to make progress in ending that conflict, while peace in Colombia would give them a better chance to solve their own serious domestic problems.
Topic:
Security and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

56. Colombia's Conflicts: The Spillover Effects of a Wider War

Author:
Richard Millet
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In today's global village, there is no such thing as a purely national crisis. Every conflict has spillover effects, ranging from trade disruptions to refugee flows to violent clashes. In the past, it was common for nations to believe that promoting conflict in neighboring states could somehow enhance their security, but in the twenty-first century it has become increasingly obvious that conflicts in one nation constitute a security threat to all who share common borders. Today, it is more often the weakness rather than the strength of states that threatens to disrupt the search for peace and stability.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

57. Colombia: Prospects for Peace with the ELN

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Alvaro Uribe was inaugurated President of Colombia on 7 August 2002 with a strong electoral mandate to fulfil his pledge to enhance the state's authority and guarantee security. In his inaugural address, Uribe promised to search for a negotiated solution to the long-standing armed confrontation with both insurgent groups, the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as well as with the paramilitary United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC). However, in stark contrast to his predecessor, Andrés Pastrana, he conditioned new negotiations on a ceasefire and complete suspension of hostilities.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

58. The 10 March 2002 Parliamentary Elections in Colombia

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 10 March 2002, little more than two weeks after the end of the peace process with the insurgent Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC), Colombians elected a new House of Representatives and Senate. Despite heightened apprehension among the electorate and the government about violent interference by the guerrilla and paramilitary organisations, the polls took place in an atmosphere of relative calm and good order. In part this was due to the large-scale deployment of military and police forces across the country to guarantee voter security.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

59. The Stakes in the Presidential Election in Colombia

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This presidential election (first round on 26 May 2002; second round, if needed, on 16 June) will be crucial for the future of Colombia's democracy and its struggle against insurgents and paramilitaries, drugs and widespread poverty. Social and economic distress is now widespread. Public frustration with the ill-fated peace process of the Pastrana Administration over the past three years, its definitive rupture on 20 February 2002, and increased attacks by the main rebel group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia- Ejército del Pueblo (FARC) on civilians and infrastructure since mid-January have made “war/peace” and “violence” the key vote- determining issues. The failure to negotiate a solution to the longstanding civil war over the past three years has polarised the electorate.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

60. Colombia's Elusive Quest for Peace

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In February 2002, negotiations to end the most dangerous confrontation of Colombia's decades of civil war collapsed. Nearly four years earlier, the newly-inaugurated President Andrés Pastrana had opened talks with the country's major remaining rebel groups, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC) and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), with great enthusiasm and hope. But the fighting never ended while the talks sputtered on, and the country now appears headed for a new round of violence in its cities and against its infrastructure. The international community is concerned about the implications not only for Colombia's people and its democratic institutions, but also wider regional stability.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America