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51. After Argentina

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Argentina has finally restructured its foreign debt. Its credit rating is up, and its debt is back in the index. The new bonds are trading roughly in line with Brazil and Uruguay's, just above 400 basis points over treasuries for instruments of comparable duration. Argentina is raising new money from foreign investors. Earlier in the summer of 2005, it reopened a domestic dollar issue to accommodate excess foreign demand. Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are on again. They might even sign a new disbursing program after the fall 2005 congressional elections. Like a bad dream, the 2001 default is fading into the night after three years of brisk growth and impressive fiscal management—even as the usual nabobs natter on about structural reform and unhappy bondholders.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, and Economics
Political Geography:
South America

52. What Iraq and Argentina Might Learn from Each Other

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Financial collapse usually triggers a flurry of market, academic, and policy innovation. The Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s produced the Brady Bonds and led to the rise of today's emerging markets. In the late 1990s, crises in Pakistan, Ecuador, and Ukraine helped teach the markets how to restructure international sovereign bonds. Crises in Mexico, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and throughout East Asia raised doubts about the international system's ability to manage vast and rapid capital flows, and prompted a big-picture reassessment under the rubric “international financial architecture.” This included most famously the sovereign bankruptcy proposals discussed elsewhere in this volume.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, East Asia, Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Mexico

53. What Bond Markets Can Learn from Argentina

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Argentina has completed the largest and most complex sovereign bond restructuring in history. Before the debt exchange, it owed about $82 billion in principal and $20 billion in past due interest. Hundreds of thousands of creditors held 150 kinds of defaulted instruments issued in six currencies under the laws of eight jurisdictions. Creditors owed just over 76% of the total, or $62 billion, got $35 billion in new performing bonds. Other performing debt includes $40 billion in domestic and about $30 billion in multi-lateral obligations. Argentina left behind almost $25 billion in defaulted principal and interest.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

54. The Role of Perceived Opportunity in Fertility Choice: Evidence from Latin America

Author:
Louise C. Keely and Margaret MacLeod
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
We hypothesize that the perceived returns to human capital and to income uncertainty are important determinants of recent cross-sectional variation in Latin American fertility. An empirical study of cross-country individual level data supports the hypothesis. In particular, we find that a higher perceived return to human capital and higher income uncertainty both lead to higher fertility, all else equal. We interpret the evidence to suggest that increasing economic opportunity in Latin America should be accompanied by institutions that provide social protection in order to promote further decreases in fertility toward the replacement rate.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

55. Unemployment, Macroeconomic Policy and Labor Market Flexibility: Argentina and Mexico in the 1990s

Author:
Roberto Frenkel and Jaime Ros
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper compares the divergent unemployment experiences in Argentina and Mexico in the 1990s, examining in detail the remarkable contrasts in the adjustment of the labor market in these two countries that occur despite equally striking similarities in the evolution of a number of macroeconomic variables and external economic shocks. The paper focuses on the role of macroeconomic policies and the type of industrial restructuring in these developments and considers to what extent the divergent unemployment experiences can be explained by differences in the institutional characteristics of the labor market.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, North America, and Mexico

56. Parental Wealth Effects on Living Standards and Asset Holdings: Results from Chile

Author:
Florencia Torche and Seymour Spillerman
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper examines aspects of the replication of inequality across generations and attempts to assess the extent to which parental resources influence the life chances and living standards of adult children. We expect household wealth to be a critical matter, especially in a society in which there is a weak public safety net or in which the credit market is inefficient. In the former case, families need to self-insure--accumulate savings to smooth consumption expenditures over periods of income fluctuation, such as might result from illness or job loss. In the latter case, financial wealth is necessary in order to finance large expenditure items (e.g., a home, a new business) or to provide collateral in seeking a bank loan for such an expenditure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
South America

57. CERI: Eighteen months into Lula's presidency, how is Brazil faring?

Author:
François d'Arcy
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
This study, which examines the chances of success of the government of Luiz Ináci Lula da Silva, takes as its starting point the idea that the main obstacle resides in the structure of the Brazilian political system. Being unable to reform that system, President Lula has skilfully adapted to it, but not without having to forge certain unusual alliances. He has, nevertheless, honoured the campaign promises which brought him to power after three unsuccessful attempts in a row, maintaining anti-inflationary policies and strict budgetary discipline, and respecting commitments given concerning public debt and privatised companies. This macroeconomic policy – which follows on from that of Fernando Henrique Cardoso – dominated his government's first year in office, slowing the implementation of new policies addressing social issues and sustainable development. So far, the latter policies would appear to point more to continuity than to radical change, a fact which will, doubtless, contribute greatly to their success.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

58. This Far and No Further? Nudging Agricultral Reform Forward

Author:
Tim Josling and Dale Hathaway
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As countries attempt to restart the stalled Doha Round and continue the negotiations on further agricultural trade reform and liberalization, it is useful to take stock of the progress made so far in the light of both the objectives of countries and the needs of the trading system. This policy brief reviews the main objectives of the agricultural talks in the World Trade Organization (WTO), examines the major proposals that emerged in the run-up to Cancún and at the ministerial itself, describes the emerging framework for further reform, and suggests ways in which the negotiations can build on this progress to achieve a worthwhile outcome.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South America

59. News or Noise? An Analysis of Brazilian GDP Announcements

Author:
Rebeca de la Rocque Palis, Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos, and Patrice Robitaille
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Revisions to GDP announcements in many countries are often large, and Faust, Rogers, and Wright (2003) have found that G-7 GDP revisions are predictable to varying degrees. In this paper, we extend FRW to study revisions to Brazilian GDP announcements. We document that revisions to Brazilian GDP are large relative to those of G-7 countries. Brazilian GDP revisions are also predictable, which is consistent with the view that GDP revisions correct errors in preliminary GDP rather than reflect news. However, GDP revisions are far from being entirely predictable. Although GDP revisions are largest only one year following the initial GDP release, those revisions are nearly unpredictable.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

60. Firm-Level Access To International Capital Markets: Evidence From Chilean Equities

Author:
Francis E. Warnock and Sara B. Holland
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
High growth, liquid Chilean firms have greater relative weights in U.S. equity portfolios, but the most important determinant of a firm's portfolio weight is whether it is listed on a U.S. exchange. Cross-listing does not, however, appear to have permanent benefits: Weights in U.S. portfolios of firms that cross-listed in the mid-1990s increased at the expense of firms that cross-listed earlier. Put another way, firms appear to be able to access international capital at the time of the cross-listing, but this access may well be short-lived.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South America