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211. Zimbabwe: Prospects from a Flawed Election

Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The regional mediation offering the most realistic chance to resolve Zimbabwe's eight-year crisis has failed. South African President Thabo Mbeki's stated objective in talks between the ruling ZANU-PF party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) was to secure conditions for free and fair elections that would produce an undisputed outcome. But on 29 March 2008, Zimbabwe will hold elections already flawed by pre-poll misbehaviour, notwithstanding what may occur on polling day and thereafter. The results are likely to be heatedly disputed. Though the playing field is far from even, and efforts to create a united opposition have failed, ex-ZANU-PF politburo member Simba Makoni is seriously challenging Robert Mugabe's re-election. The 84-year-old president probably has the means to manipulate the process sufficiently to retain his office, though possibly only after a violent run-off, but there is little prospect of a government emerging that is capable of ending the crisis. If the situation deteriorates, the African Union (AU) needs to be ready to offer prompt mediation for a power-sharing agreement between presidential contenders and creation of a transitional government with a reform agenda.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

212. South Africa's Medical Brain Drain: Myths, Facts and What (not) to do

Author:
Jon Mortensen
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
A global shortage of health professionals makes it relatively easy for doctors and nurses from poor countries to emigrate to rich countries. This has raised fears of a medical brain drain from poor to rich countries and has been the subject of much – impassioned – debate. This paper questions the underlying rational behind South Africa's current policies toward the medical brain drain. In doing so, it also challenges the dominating view on the medical brain drain: that out-migration of health workers from developing countries has damaging consequences and curbing that migration is pivotal in safeguarding developing countries' health systems. A view which is rooted in a perhaps intuitively convincing assumption that out-migration and low levels of health workers are tightly correlated – that outward migration causes low levels of health workers in South Africa and elsewhere.
Topic:
Health and Migration
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

213. Emerging Middle Powers' Soft Balancing Strategy: State and Perspectives of the IBSA Dialogue Forum

Author:
Daniel Flemes
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
How can weaker states influence stronger ones? This article offers a case study of one recent exercise in coalition building among Southern middle powers, the 'India, Brazil, South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue Forum'. The analysis outlines five major points: first, it argues that the three emerging players can be defined as middle powers in order to frame their foreign policy behavior and options at the global level. Second, soft balancing is a suitable concept to explain IBSA's strategy in global institutions. Third, institutional foreign policy instruments are of pivotal significance in IBSA's soft balancing strategy. Fourth, the potential gains of IBSA's sector cooperation, particularly in trade, are limited due to a lack of complementarity of the three economies. And fifth, IBSA's perspectives and impact on the international system will depend on four variables: IBSA's ability to focus on distinct areas of cooperation, the consolidation of its common strategy of soft balancing, the institutionalization of IBSA, and its enlargement in order to obtain more weight in global bargains.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

214. Conceptualising Regional Power in International Relations: Lessons from the South African Case

Author:
Daniel Flemes
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Regional powers can be distinguished by four pivotal criteria: claim to leadership, power resources, employment of foreign policy instruments, and acceptance of leadership. Applying these indicators to the South African case, the analysis demonstrates the crucial significance of institutional foreign policy instruments. But although the South African government is ready to pay the costs of co-operative hegemony (such as capacity building for regional institutions and peacekeeping), the regional acceptance of South Africa's leadership is constrained by its historical legacy. Additionally, Pretoria's foreign policy is based on ideational resources such as its reputation as an advocate of democracy and human rights and the legitimacy derived from its paradigmatic behaviour as a 'good global citizen'. However, the Mbeki presidency is more successful in converting these resources into discursive instruments of interest-assertion in global, rather than in regional bargains. In effect the regional power's reformist South-oriented multilateralism is challenging some of the guiding principles of the current international system.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

215. Brazil with strong challenge ahead: Other BRIC countries enjoying stronger media support

Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Media Tenor International
Abstract:
Despite its size, both geographically and in terms of its population, Latin America plays a rather insignificant role in international television news. With Western media for the most part still reporting within traditional and existing parameters (East-West), countries falling outside of these parameters seem to only appear on television when they violate these set norms and expectations (as in the case of Iraq, Iran, North Korea) or if they confirm existing stereotypes, such as crime and violence in Africa. With Latin America hovering on the peripheral of these issues (except for the United States-Venezuelan \'relations\' matter), it is no surprise that Latin America attracts only marginal coverage on television news. Swiss and German television news reports dedicated only 3% of their total coverage in 2006 to Latin America, while South African, British and Arab media dedicated less than 2%. Only U.S. television, largely due to reporting on Cuba and Venezuela, dedicated a full 5% of its total coverage to the continent.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
United States, South Africa, Cuba, Latin America, and Venezuela

216. The Challenges Of Groundwater In Southern Africa

Author:
Anthony Turton
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
It is impossible to understand the developmental constraints of Africa without grasping the significance of water resources, particularly groundwater. Southern Africa faces potentially severe groundwater shortages, which not only imperil the lives of those directly dependent on it, but also the continued development of the economic engines of the region—South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe—all of which face significant constraints on their future economic growth due to the insecurity of water supply. In addition, groundwater resources are the foundation of rural water supplies, which sustain livelihoods for the poorest of the poor communities.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, and Environment
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, Namibia, and Botswana

217. Small Arms and Light Weapons: Towards Global Public Policy

Author:
Keith Krause
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Small arms and light weapons kill at least 300,000 people a year, in both conflict and non-conflict situations, and injure or disable thousands more. Small arms are the weapons of choice of warring parties— government armies, paramilitaries, rebel forces, or even terrorists—and in recent wars they account for between 60 and 90 percent of direct conflict deaths, depending on the nature and intensity of the fighting. In non-war settings small arms represent one of the leading causes of preventable death, and a major cause of mortality for young men—through, for example, armed violence, suicides, murders, and accidents. 1 In Rio de Janeiro the gun violence death rate is comparable to that of some war zones. El Salvador has a firearm death rate of thirty per 100,000, and Colombia suffers a rate of fifty-five per 100,000 people killed by gun violence. 2 The life expectancy of males born in Colombia in 2002 is reduced by more than three years as a result of the risk of armed violence. And in South Africa, homicides are the leading cause of death for males between fifteen and twenty-one years of age. Overall, the global burden of violence and violent conflict is one of the most important external causes of death and injury.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
South Africa and Colombia

218. Why Doesn't Africa Get More Equity Investment? Frontier Stock Markets, Firm Size and Asset Allocations of Global Emerging Market Funds

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Scott Standley, and Todd Moss
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper addresses the question of investment in sub-Saharan African listed securities by examining characteristics of the continent's 15 equity markets, the rise and fall of African regional funds, and the asset allocation trends for global emerging market (GEM) funds. The data shows that South Africa is now a leading destination of capital, but that few managers invest elsewhere on the continent. However, we find that African markets are not treated differently than other markets and present evidence that small market size and low levels of liquidity are a binding deterrent for foreign institutional investors. Thus, orthodox market variables rather than market failure appear to explain Africa's low absolute levels of inward equity flows. The paper then turns to new data from firm surveys to explore why African firms remain small. The implications of our findings are threefold: (a) efforts to encourage greater private investment in these markets should concentrate on domestic audiences and specialized regional funds, (b) the depth and success of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange can perhaps be better utilized to benefit other parts of the continent, and (c) any long-term strategy should concentrate on the underlying barriers to firm entry and growth.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

219. Credit Elasticities in Less-Developed Economies: Implications for Microcredit

Author:
Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Policymakers often prescribe that microfinance institutions increase interest rates to eliminate reliance on subsidies. This strategy makes sense if the poor are rate insensitive: then microlenders increase profitability (or achieve sustainability) without reducing the poor's access to credit. We test the assumption of price inelastic demand using randomized trials conducted by a consumer lender in South Africa. The demand curves are downward-sloping, and steep for price increases relative to the lender's standard rates. We also find that loan size is far more responsive to changes in loan maturity than to changes in interest rates, which is consistent with binding liquidity constraints.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

220. Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries with a Consumer Credit Field Experiment

Author:
Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Information asymmetries are important in theory but difficult to identify in practice. We estimate the presence and importance of adverse selection and moral hazard in a consumer credit market using a new field experiment methodology. We randomized 58,000 direct mail offers issued by a major South African lender along three dimensions: 1) an initial "offer interest rate" featured on a direct mail solicitation; 2) a "contract interest rate" that was revealed only after a borrower agreed to the initial offer rate; and 3) a dynamic repayment incentive that extended preferential pricing on future loans to borrowers who remained in good standing. These three randomizations, combined with complete knowledge of the Lender's information set, permit identification of specific types of private information problems. Our setup distinguishes adverse selection from moral hazard effects on repayment, and thereby generates unique evidence on the existence and magnitudes of specific credit market frictions. We find evidence of moral hazard and weaker evidence for adverse selection. A rough calibration suggests that perhaps 7% to 16% of default is due to asymmetric information problems. Asymmetric information may help explain the prevalence of credit constraints even in a market that specializes in financing high-risk borrowers at very high rates.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
South Africa