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181. Somalia: The Tough Part Is Ahead

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia's Islamic Courts fell even more dramatically than they rose. In little more than a week in December 2006, Ethiopian and Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces killed hundreds of Islamist fighters and scattered the rest in a lightning offensive. On 27 December, the Council of Somali Islamic Courts in effect dissolved itself, surrendering political leadership to clan leaders. This was a major success for Ethiopia and the U.S. who feared emergence of a Taliban-style haven for al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremists, but it is too early to declare an end to Somalia's woes. There is now a political vacuum across much of southern Somalia, which the ineffectual TFG is unable to fill. Elements of the Courts, including Shabaab militants and their al- Qaeda associates, are largely intact and threaten guerrilla war. Peace requires the TFG to be reconstituted as a genuine government of national unity but the signs of its willingness are discouraging. Sustained international pressure is needed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa, Taliban, Ethiopia, and Somalia

182. Behind the Numbers: Assessing Indices of Peace, Conflict and Instability

Author:
Sarah Bessell
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Can peace and stability be measured? If so, what are some of the most helpful indicators for determining at-risk countries and regions? What is the significance of resulting rankings and changes from year to year? On September 17, 2007, USIP hosted a public event to explore these and related questions. The panel featured three indices that attempt to quantify aspects of countries' peacefulness, conflict, and instability: the Failed States Index, the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger, and the Global Peace Index. The panel examined the meaning, methodologies, and utility for policymakers and researchers of these and other indices. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the discussion at this event.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Somalia

183. Political Violence and Democratic Uncertainty in Ethiopia

Author:
Lahra Smith
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Assistant professor at Georgetown University, where she teaches courses on African politics, civil society and democracy in Africa, and peace and conflict in East Africa. The pardon and release of thirty-eight political detainees, mostly from the leadership of the main opposition party, may give impetus to political negotiations in Ethiopia after more than two years' crisis and stalemate. Contentious and previously unresolved national issues, such as land and economic development; the institutional and constitutional structure of the Ethiopian state; and the best way to ensure equality of ethnic and religious communities, were brought to the fore during the past election cycle. However, after the election, much- needed national dialogue on these matters ended. It must be reinvigorated now that the political opposition's leaders have been freed. Citizen discontent has grown with the caretaker administration in Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa and repressive local administrations. Elections for city and local government must be held. Further delays will undermine any democratic progress. The current Parliament includes members of several opposition political parties, though not the leaders who were imprisoned. Both the ruling party and the main opposition parties should make as many visible and meaningful concessions as possible to their political opponents. Ethiopia's military intervention in Somalia in December 2006, its ongoing military presence in that conflict, and its unchanged, tense border stalemate with Eritrea have contributed to growing violence in the Horn of Africa and stymied domestic democratization.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and East Africa

184. Editor's Note

Author:
Ahmed I. Samatar
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bildhaan: An International Journal of Somali Studies
Institution:
Macalester College
Abstract:
This special volume has a complicated history, and its release has been long in coming. The distant hinterland includes many months of preparation and discussion to form what became the National Civic Forum (NCF). Twenty-seven Somalis, made up of a mixture of scholars, senior professionals, and highly experienced national figures, assembled in Nairobi, Kenya, in late 2004 to start a disciplined exploration of the Somali conditions and what might possibly be done about them. That initial and successful retreat led to a public and widely circulated press release that underscored a nonpartisan commitment to the well-being of the Somali people through ideas that stress unity, peace, freedom, and constitutional civic life.
Political Geography:
Kenya, Somalia, and Nairobi

185. Security and Reconciliation in Post-Conflict Society: The Matter of Closing the Books in South Africa and Somalia

Author:
Janis Grobbelaar and Jama M. Ghalib
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bildhaan: An International Journal of Somali Studies
Institution:
Macalester College
Abstract:
At the more macro and general level, this article is concerned with societal transition towards the rule of law and sustainable democracy in post-conflict societies. It departs from an understanding that sufficient institutional capacity, in particular that needed to root and implement the rule of law, is ultimately required if secure, peaceful, and democratically viable post-conflict-ridden society is to be built and maintained over time. It assumes, in other words, that a legitimate and functioning normative order and a culture predisposed to such an order are key to security, reconciliation, and sustainable democracy. More particularly, the article engages the time and the methods, as well as the concerns of transition from societal violence, authoritarianism, and tyranny, towards the rule of law and secure democracy. To use Jon Elster's words, it deals with “the time” of attempting “to close the books” after a cessation of conflict has been agreed to and democracy is introduced.
Political Geography:
South Africa and Somalia

186. The Porcupine Dilemma: Governance and Transition in Somalia

Author:
Ahmed I. Samatar
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bildhaan: An International Journal of Somali Studies
Institution:
Macalester College
Abstract:
As of this writing, too far from “civil happiness,” Somalis continue sliding deeper into a fallen time—pitiful victims of their own follies and an ill-informed, if not manipulative, international and regional system. More precisely, the fight over the state in the past decade and a half has been at once violent and so disabling that, in the eyes of the rest of the world, Somalis have become the paradigmatic embodiment of self-inflicted politicide. Dismayingly, though the Somali state institutions are no more, the contestants wage their battles as if the prize is just waiting to be picked up. Oblivious, then, to the fact that the state and governance are more than the sum of capricious self-promotion and claims of Potemkin political appellations and appointments, the aggressively ambitious bestow a vulgar concreteness to Jorge Luis Borges' metaphor of the condition of “two bald men fighting over a comb.” The ultimate costs of the death of the state and subsequent communal strife are a withering of the national civic identity and spirit and, therefore, a descent into a form of moronic existence. Six instantiations of this condition are: (a) disunity exemplified by some in the northern Somali Republic (Somaliland) calling for a separate sovereignty in that region; (b) an essentialization of clanist maneuvers and mischief that have proven to be incapable of producing legitimate and competent leaders fit for the challenges of the epoch, let alone bring forth workable institutions for the immediate juncture; (c) the degeneration of Mogadishu from the once breezy, relatively cosmopolitan nerve-center of the post-colonial order to a dilapidated hell's gate overwhelmed by new deadly conflagrations and mountains of illdisposed filth; (d) a deepening socioeconomic impoverishment, barely assuaged by remittances from relatives in the diaspora, decline in educational opportunities and standards, and deteriorating public health, including the return of polio; (e) an acute national vulnerability to easy bamboozlement, and now direct military intervention or invasion by foreign actors, particularly neighboring Ethiopia; and (f) a mixture of incredulity and contempt on the part of the larger global community. To be sure, these negative attributes (and many more) make up the defining face of Somali reality. But it is also vital to note that, among the paradoxes of the current sharp cut in time (the meaning of civil war), numerous ordinary women and men, in every zone of the country, have taken it upon themselves to address the immediate concerns of their families and neighborhoods, the virus of sectarian cabals, and, commensurately, keep the candle of civic values flickering for a future undergirded by a peaceful and legitimate and competent governance.
Political Geography:
Ethiopia and Somalia

187. Somalia: Education in Transition

Author:
Lee Cassanelli and Farah Sheikh Abdikadir
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bildhaan: An International Journal of Somali Studies
Institution:
Macalester College
Abstract:
We begin with the premise that education is a basic human right, as well as a precondition for any serious effort to return peace, prosperity, and justice to Somalia's citizens on a lasting basis. The collapse of the Somali state and the subsequent civil war(s) have altered most aspects of Somali life; but they have been particularly devastating in the area of education, where an entire generation has lost out on one of the most precious opportunities of childhood. The restoration of regular schooling is critical if Somalis expect to survive the present upheaval and envision a hopeful future. Education can provide structure and stability for children who have been traumatized by war. It is the starting point for creating a skilled workforce that can compete in the global economy. Education fosters the intellectual discipline necessary to solve problems, and the civic virtues essential for good governance. Good education can help reduce gender inequalities, child exploitation, and the likelihood of future violence in the wider society.
Political Geography:
Somalia

188. Somalia's Post-Conflict Economy: A Political Economy Approach

Author:
Abdi Ismail Samatar
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bildhaan: An International Journal of Somali Studies
Institution:
Macalester College
Abstract:
Much discussion has taken place about reviving the Somali economy since the dawn of the new century. These conversations have not critically assessed what bedeviled the Somali economy during the tenure of the old regime and since its collapse. Further, no one has yet articulated an appropriate framework that accounts for the country's past and the ways in which a new Somali order can profitably learn from and engage with recent developments in the global environment. The factors that crippled the old order and that sustain the civil war must be identified and contained, if not fully controlled, during and after the transition. Among the ills that plague the Somali economy are structural constraints, mismanagement of public resources, a political elite whose preoccupation is looting the commons, lawlessness and warlord rule, and a disorganized public that failed to unite against a sectarian political agenda that stoked conflict between communities. The prospect that the transition will be economically successful is grim unless a conscious and concerted effort is made to reduce these political liabilities.
Political Geography:
Somalia

189. Reviving the Somali Economy: Business Regulation and Development Opportunities Associated with Globalization

Author:
Yusuf Ahmed Nur
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bildhaan: An International Journal of Somali Studies
Institution:
Macalester College
Abstract:
This contribution suggests a number of business and economic policies that a new government of the Somali Republic might consider in order to put the country on the path to successful economic reconstruction and development. The proposed policies are derived from a critical reassessment of today's integrated and interdependent world economy, which presents both opportunities and dire threats that could jeopardize the sovereignty and statehood of Somalia. The crucial role of a good and strong government is emphasized. Recent developments are also integrated into the analysis. The essay concludes by suggesting policies for creating a business and investment climate that guides and regulates (but does not stifle) the entrepreneurial spirit of the Somali people, which has flourished for fifteen years in the absence of state and government.
Political Geography:
Somalia

190. Health Care Services in Transitional Somalia: Challenges and Recommendations

Author:
Mohamed Gedi Qayad
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bildhaan: An International Journal of Somali Studies
Institution:
Macalester College
Abstract:
Universal access to health care is an ideal goal for all nations. Nations often base their health care development plans on this principle. In Somalia, provision of health care services was also driven by this principle, and delivery of services was publicly funded like other social services, such as education. However, that goal was never achieved and the health status indicators for Somalia, even before the collapse of the central government, showed grim statistics.
Political Geography:
Somalia