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1. Exploring options for advancing Kosovo-NATO relations

Author:
Ramadan Iazi and Jeta Loshaj
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
NATO’s role in Kosovo has been vital since the 1999 intervention and KFOR remains integral for guaranteeing security and stability not only in Republic of Kosovo but also the wider Western Balkans. Public sentiment for full NATO membership is extremely high in Kosovo—over 90% support—reflecting Kosovars’ enduring trust in the NATP alliance. However this overwhelming public support can be affected if Kosovo’s aspirations for closer ties with NATO are not addressed. While, Kosovo’s formal progress toward full membership is politically constrained by the fact that four NATO member states have yet to recognize its independence, there are other options that NATO can pursue to advance relations with Kosovo. In this context, this paper explores options how can Kosovo and NATO advance relations and cooperation. The 1995 study provides core principles for options that are examined in this paper. These principles remain highly relevant for Kosovo. While formal membership is stalled by non-recognizing NATO member states, the paper argues that an inclusive, step-by-step approach can be adapted for a flexible, deeper engagement with Kosovo. A central recommendation is the creation of a “Kosovo Enhanced Cooperation Initiative,” a tailored version of NATO’s partnership mechanisms (e.g., Partnership for Peace, Planning and Review Process, and the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre). KECI would aim to strengthen Kosovo’s defense institutions, enhance interoperability, support civil emergency preparedness, and develop broader crisis-management capabilities. Crucially, it would not force any change in the political stance on recognition among NATO member states. The EU-facilitated normalization dialogue between Republic of Kosovo and Serbia is one of the essential elements especially for Kosovo to build the confidence of both skeptical NATO member states and international partners when it comes to Euro-Atlantic integration process of the country. Regular coordination with NATO and the EU, particularly concerning sensitive actions in the north, would affirm that Kosovo’s leaders prioritize strategic partnerships and diplomacy over moves that risks and undermine support for Kosovo. Nevertheless, without any concrete carrots such as anything close to a guarantee that Kosovo gains an open perspective for NATO’s PfP, it is rather difficult for Kosovo to be encouraged to deliver on either an agreement with Serbia or any other agreement.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Partnerships, Normalization, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

2. What is Serbia’s “Project 5000” and why Should we be concerned?

Author:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the potential consequences and concerns surrounding Serbia’s “Project 5000,” emphasizing why it warrants attention not just from neighboring states in the Western Balkans but also from NATO. Given the geopolitical landscape, any escalation of conflict within this region directly impacts NATO’s strategic interests, considering its significant presence in the Balkans. Moreover, Russia’s overt military backing of Serbia and its advocacy for a militaristic approach towards Kosovo are of particular concern. This stance by Russia can be interpreted as an attempt to embolden Serbia to adopt a military intervention in Kosovo, serving dual purposes for Russia: shifting international focus from the brutal invasion of Ukraine and undermining NATO’s credibility and influence in the region. The unfolding situation underscores a broader strategy by Russia to exploit regional tensions, thereby challenging the Euro-Atlantic integration process. Such maneuvers not only threaten to destabilize the Western Balkans but also aim to fracture European unity and weaken NATO’s strategic coherence, particularly as it pertains to its eastern flank and broader engagement in conflict resolution and peacekeeping efforts.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Serbia

3. Towards an EU geopolitical approach on transformative terms in the Western Balkans

Author:
Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief assesses the EU response after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, asking how the EU can pursue a geopolitical EU enlargement approach while maintaining its transformative objectives. The brief first provides a concise assessment of the instruments that the EU employs to strengthen democratic resilience and to counter Russian influence in the three countries. We argue that the EU has a comprehensive and effective range of instruments available, even if Russia has maintained its ability to project especially ‘soft’ power. However, when looking at the overall EU political approach towards these countries, we observe negative effects of the manner in which geopolitical imperatives for enhanced engagement are currently converted into strategy and discourse. More specifically, an insufficiently overarching firm and confident EU political approach towards the Western Balkans undermines the transformative potential of the EU’s impressive toolbox for the region. The brief concludes that by becoming more confident and upfront, sticking to its values and making use of negative conditionality besides offering positive incentives, the EU can pursue a more effective geopolitical approach on transformative terms towards the Western Balkans.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

4. The Granular Trade and Production Activities (GRANTPA) Database

Author:
Sebastien Bradley, Javier Flórez Mendoza, Mario Larch, and Yoto V. Yotov
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper introduces the Granular Trade and Production Activities (GRANTPA) database, which covers international trade flows for 3,124 products and 247 countries over the period 1995-2019 as well as domestic trade flows and production data for the same number of products and years for a subset of 35 European economies. The original data sources that we employ are Eurostat’s Comext and Prodcom databases. A gravity application delivers a large set of product-level ‘home bias’ estimates, which cannot be obtained without domestic trade flows. The average estimates on the standard gravity variables in our model (e.g., distance) are comparable to those from the related literature. However, our disaggregated estimates are very heterogeneous across products, thus highlighting the importance of our new database.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Trade, Production, Gravity Data, Structural Gravity, Home Bias Estimates, and Disaggregated Gravity Estimates
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Norway, Serbia, Iceland, Montenegro, and North Macedonia

5. The Challenges of Normalizing Relations Between Belgrade and Pristina: Implications of the “Agreement on the Path to Normalization”

Author:
Mihajlo Vucic and Dragan Djukanovic
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The article analyzes the process of normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina after adopting the Agreement on the Path to Normalization. The analytical framework of neorealism was used to explain that the normalization process was accelerated due to the war crisis in Eastern Europe. The international legal aspects of the agreement were scrutinized, based on the method of content analysis and comparative studies, to argue that the agreement is a legally binding treaty between two sides that respect each other’s international legal personality. The authors concluded that the European Union and the United States attempted to create new momentum in the decade-long and rather unsuccessful process by adopting the Agreement and the Annex on implementation. Thus, these documents were put in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina and broader European and regional levels of complex relations. In addition, the analysis concluded that the documents serve as new impulses in normalization as a continuous legal formalization of relations between the two sides based on international legal rules.
Topic:
International Law, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

6. Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans

Author:
Adnan Ćerimagić and Majda Ruge
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Over recent years, Serbia’s government and Serb nationalists elsewhere in the Western Balkans have increased their revisionist agitation in the region. They recently adopted an “all-Serb declaration” that seeks to overturn the post-Dayton settlement in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and claims Kosovo as an inseparable part of Serbia. Though some international observers have criticised the Biden administration for its concessions to Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s president, it deserves credit for containing Belgrade’s ability to realise its ambitions and preventing two worst-case scenarios: the disintegration of the Bosnian state and armed escalation between Serbia and Kosovo. That fragile status-quo would come under significant threat from a new Trump presidency in the US. Among other risks, his second administration may seek to reverse sanctions that have constrained separatist appetites among Bosnian Serbs and to revive dangerous proposals for a Serbia-Kosovo land swap. Peace in the region is at stake. Particularly in the event of a Trump victory on 5 November, the EU should prepare a package of new deterrence mechanisms that it can apply in the Western Balkans independently from the US and spoiler member states like Hungary. And in either eventuality, it should take more responsibility for stabilising the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Serbia, Balkans, North America, and United States of America

7. Kosovo in Russian Foreign Policy- Discourse Fostering Instability in Kosovo and Countering Euro-Atlantic Integration

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi, Ardit Orana, and Jeta Loshaj
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Russian influence and interests in the Western Balkans are primarily centered around Serbia. According to a 2024 survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), for Kosovar citizens, after Serbia (83%), Russia (8%) is seen as the main threat to the country, while 87% say that the country’s foreign policy should only be pro-European Union and pro-West, and 59% say that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is completely unjustified. Main takeaways from this paper include: Russia deploys state-controlled media (RT, Sputnik) and partners with Iranian outlets to spread narratives portraying Kosovo as a failed state, full of instability. Russia capitalizes on deep cultural, religious, and political ties with Serbia to maintain influence in the Balkans, utilizing ties with the the Serbian Orthodox Church and with Serbian elites to the detriment of Kosovo. There are indications that Russia had prior knowledge of or involvement in the Banjska terrorist attack in Kosovo, aimed at escalating tensions. By stirring instability in Kosovo, Russia aims to divert Western attention and resources away from Ukraine, creating a multi-front challenge for NATO and the EU.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Strategic Interests, Instability, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Serbia, and Western Balkans

8. Reassessing the Kosovo-Serbia Normalization Dialogue: It is Time for a Reset?

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This paper questions the effectiveness of the ongoing EU-led dialogue in normalizing relations between Kosovo and Serbia, despite various agreements made since 2011 when the process started. This paper argues that the current process is leading towards a scenario where “no solution is a solution” could become the default stance of the international community, particularly within EU capitals. This is a result of Serbia playing the long game and Kosovo the waiting game. Such an outcome would potentially carry devastating consequences as it cements the status quo, risks regional stability, maintains Kosovo’s isolation, and deepens interethnic tensions within Kosovo.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Ethnicity, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

9. Russian Propaganda in Serbia and the Western Balkans: The Case of Telegram Channels

Author:
Polina Greisman
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This study is based on the analysis of open data obtained from the Internet, dealing with Telegram channels that are directly connected to official Russian media. Serbia is no exception to the list of countries whose internal affairs found themselves on the receiving end of Russian government interference. However, due to the friendly relations between Russia and Serbia, these facts are rarely made public. Also, not all of them are obvious, at first glance, as propaganda and interference. That is why we will look at this issue in this study and, using the example of Serbia, find out what methods of propaganda and intervention Russia is using in a country that can be described as “friendly.” This study shows the propaganda tools that Russia is using in the Balkans, particularly in Serbia and Montenegro. It also contains an analysis of propaganda narratives that appear in the Russian media operating in the Balkans, and their comparison with propaganda narratives in the media that operate in Russia.
Topic:
Media, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Telegram
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Serbia, and Western Balkans

10. How to Unbind the State Capture in Serbia? Towards Security Institutions and Foreign Policy in the Service of Citizens

Author:
Jelena Pejic Nikic and Predrag Petrovic
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
There are many findings of domestic and foreign research organisations that unequivocally indicate that Serbia is a captured state, with a hybrid political regime. Security institutions play a major role in the capture of the state and the collapse of democracy in Serbia, as well as in preserving the situation the way it is. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) was one the first organisations in Serbia to notice this negative trend; consequently, in 2019 and 2020, we investigated and documented in detail the role of the security intelligence services, the police, the army and private security companies in capturing the state, as well as the impotence of oversight and control bodies. In the research that followed in 2021, we established that the government of the Serbian Progressive Party, led by Aleksandar Vučić, had completed the capture of the state and that today’s security institutions are operating with the aim of preserving such a state of affairs. We also researched the foreign policy aspects of this negative process. Public opinion surveys conducted by BCSP have also established that the majority of the citizens are aware that Serbia is a captured state, i.e. that politicians, organised into interest groups, use state institutions together with financially powerful actors to further strengthen their political and financial power, all to the great detriment of citizens. Since state institutions are deeply captured and the citizens are aware of that fact, we have decided not to further document this process; in this study, we rather tried to determine how to organise the security institutions and strengthen their external overseers so that the security sector can no longer be easy prey for those who are politically and financially powerful. In other words, we wanted to determine how to ensure that security institutions work in the interest of citizens, precisely as the Constitution of Serbia requires. The starting point of this endeavour were the findings of the above mentioned BCSP research, in which we identified the “gray areas” and “veto points” within the security sector, that is, legal and institutional solutions that made it possible to capture these institutions quite easily. We verified the solutions for the reorganisation of these gray areas against the opinions of our interlocutors, former and current employees of the security institutions and the judiciary, diplomats, journalists, attorneys, politicians and representatives of civil society. We verified the solutions for the reorganisation of these gray areas against the opinions of our interlocutors, former and current employees of the security institutions and the judiciary, diplomats, journalists, attorneys, politicians and representatives of civil society. The interviews helped us to confirm, but also to refute our assumptions.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Institutions, and State Capture
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia