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21. The Warning Signs are Flashing Red: The interplay between climate change and violent extremism in the Western Sahel

Author:
Tom Middendorp and Reinier Bergema
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Development and security cannot do without the other. It is not enough to counter violent extremism by addressing the symptoms; understanding and focusing on root causes, in regions such as the Western Sahel, is essential to countering violent extremism. Countries in the Western Sahel suffer from the consequences of climate change: increasing droughts and water shortages make it harder for 50 million people – who depend on agriculture and livestock for their survival – to support their families. Joining a non-state armed group, for income and food, becomes ‘a tempting, or sometimes even the only, alternative.’ To address these challenges, the authors propose five recommendations: 1. Routinise and institutionalise attention to climate change in security institutions 2. Factor in (counter)violent extremism and counterterrorism into climate change efforts 3. Create a comprehensive early warning mechanism 4. Ensure comprehensive engagements: terrorist threats are not only a military issue, addressing economic and financial sources, online recruitment, supply chains, and climate change is essential for strong stabilisation efforts 5. Improve regional cooperation
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, and Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

22. The Status Quo Defied: The legitimacy of traditional authorities in areas of limited statehood in Mali, Niger and Libya

Author:
Fransje Molenaar, Jonathan Tossell, Anna Schmauder, and Rida Lyammouri
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The legitimacy of traditional authorities in areas of limited statehood in Mali, Niger and Libya In many countries in the Sahel and northern Africa, the state lacks an effective presence in border regions. This has dire consequences for communities that reside there, as the state is generally unable or unwilling to provide them with basic security and services. State absence has become a particularly pressing concern since the 2011 fall of Gaddafi in Libya, which set in motion a chain reaction of armed group formation and the spread of violent extremist organisations that now threaten the stability of the region. By capitalising on both the absence of state security and local populations’ grievances about central state neglect, these groups have been able to cement their presence throughout the Sahel, in Mali and Niger for example. This report explores whether traditional authorities in Mali, Niger and Libya could play a role in addressing these dynamics. Since pre-colonial times, traditional authorities such as tribal chiefs and religious leaders have performed governance tasks, such as the administration of justice and conflict mediation. They also play ‘an important symbolic role as representatives of community identity, unity, continuity, and stability. This has earned them a high degree of legitimacy among the public. In areas of state absence, traditional authorities could therefore provide pivotal entry points for local dispute resolution and mediation initiatives. Yet, as this report shows, traditional authorities have always been part of the political context, and are thus liable to be drawn into political – and sometimes violent – conflict. To assess whether traditional authorities can contribute to governance and stability, this report aims to provide a better understanding of how traditional authorities come to power, the extent to which their communities regard them as legitimate authorities, and the extent to which communities feel that traditional leaders are best-placed to address their concerns. The application of this multidimensional perspective to legitimacy, as advanced by Beetham (2013), leads to the following central research questions: How do the traditional authorities engaged in local governance in fragile settings, such as areas of limited statehood, build and maintain legitimacy? And what consequences does this have for (inter)national interventions that aim to foster (formal) local government and stability?
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Borders, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, Mali, Sahel, and Niger

23. Climate Security in the Sahel and the Mediterranean: Local and Regional Responses

Author:
A. Bassou, A. Chielewska, and X. Ruiz-Campillo
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean connects Europe to Africa. The Mediterranean basin is thus an area of ​​interaction between the two continents. However, there is a perception that limits the Mediterranean basin to its strictest geographical sense, that is to say the countries of southern Europe and those of North Africa, which border the Mediterranean. This traditional conception ignores the geopolitical context, which broadens the vision of the Mediterranean basin by including all the spaces that impact it. Some human phenomena, such as migration, show that Mediterranean relations do not only concern the states bordering this sea, but a much larger area including the whole European Union, on the one hand, and North African, Sahelian and Sub-Saharan countries, on the other hand. The present study takes into account the broader conception of the Mediterranean. In this sense, it not only deals with the effects of climate change on the countries bordering the Mediterranean, but extends its analysis to the whole European Union (EU), to the Maghreb and especially to the Sahel. Due to its geography, climate, demography, proliferation of conflicts or its precarious level of industrialization, the Sahel region is the most threatened in the world by climate change. Any deterioration of the situation in the Sahel countries undoubtedly has repercussions on Europe and its relations with Africa. The four authors of the study examine the impact of climate change on the stability of the Sahel and the effects that the instability of this region could have on the Mediterranean space. The authors question the potential links between climate change and security. They outline the positions and frameworks of European actions as well as the different initiatives taken by EU institutions. Finally, they put forward some recommendations on how to effectively address this phenomenon.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Political stability, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sahel, and Mediterranean

24. Belgian Special Forces in the Sahel: A Minimal Footprint with Maximal Output?

Author:
Nina Wilen
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In a shifting geopolitical context, the Belgian Defence has intensified its presence in the Sahel region and developed a new strategic military collaboration with Niger through Operation New Nero. This policy brief critically examines the strategy and identifies three challenges for the future of the operation: Niger’s democratic development, the asymmetry between the Western Partner Nation’s capabilities, and diverging agendas within the Belgian Defence. To counter these challenges, it is suggested that the minimalist approach and the social networks which enable horizontal collaboration among partners are maintained, while new civil-military opportunities are explored. On a broader level, it is recommended that Belgium aligns its political and military agendas to achieve long- term strategies geopolitical regions of importance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Belgium, Sahel, and Niger

25. Climate Change: Conflict and Cooperation (Full Issue)

Author:
Meagan Torello, Rafael Leal-Arcas, Caitlin Werrell, Francesco Femia, Carmel Davis, Ziad Al Achkar, Ang Zhao, Buddhika Jayamaha, Jahara "Franky" Matisek, William Reno, Molly Jahn, Therese Adam, Peter J. Schraeder, Juan Macias-Amoretti, and Karim Bejjit
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
In the first issue of our 20th volume, the cooperative and conflictual nature of climate change in international relations is explored. Rafael Leal-Arcas analyzes the necessity of a symbiotic relationship between bottom-up and top-down negotiations to implement clean energy consumption. Following, Caitlin Werrell and Francesco Femia begin this issue's dialogue on climate change and security. Carmel Davis discusses the effects of climate change on Sub-Saharan Africa's ability to develop and subsequently mitigate conflict. Similarly, Ziad Al Achkar outlines the economic, environmental, and security threats in the Arctic as its ice continues to melt. Zhao Ang then discusses China's ability and incentives to pursuing a greener economy. Following, Buddikha Jayamaha, Jahara Matisek, William Reno, and Molly Jahn discuss the security and development of climate change implications in the Sahel region. The main portion of this issue proudly concludes with the Journal's interview with former Swiss Ambassador Therese Adam on climate change negotiations and the great potential for civil society engagement. Following the climate change portion of this issue, we feature a special sup-topic: Africa Rising. Here, Peter Schraeder discusses the effects of President Donald Trump's foreign policy in Africa. Juan Macías-Amoretti analyzes the role of Islam in Moroccan politics, while Karim Bejjit concludes with a discussion on Morocco's growing relationship with the AU.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Islam, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Asia, North Africa, Switzerland, Morocco, Sahel, and Global Focus

26. Changing Weather Patterns, Climate Change, and Civil War Dynamics: Institutions and Conflict in the Sahel

Author:
Buddhika Jayamaha, Jahara "Franky" Matisek, William Reno, and Molly Jahn
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Changing weather patterns increasingly shape battlefield dynamics in civil wars. Civil wars have complex origins and once violence erupts, local, regional, and global drivers, including changing weather patterns, shape the processes of conflict.1 As one study published in Nature indicated, the “stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.” Others have shown that climate change undermines ‘human security’ and that warming temperatures lead to an increase in crime. Some contend that climate change research has overdramatized the causes of certain wars while downplaying important pre-war cleavages. Finally, some studies show the difficulty of drawing a direct causal link between climate change, statistically significant changes in weather patterns due to anthropogenic activity, and civil war on-set. Our field research provides further clarity and greater nuance on these debates and studies by investigating various processes and variables involved with local-level violence, environmental changes, and weather shifts. Additionally, there has been a change in the character of battlespaces, fragile food systems, and food (in)security, which highlights how changing weather patterns directly impact the formation of new battlespace dynamics and the processes of violence in the Sahel. Indeed, there is significant evidence that links temperature and rainfall shifts with decreases in political stability in the Sahel (see Figure 1). For the purposes of this article, we restrict our analysis to the central portion of the Sahel, specifically the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) area, which is bordered by Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria. Already, there is substantial evidence linking temperature and rainfall shifts with decreases in local and regional political stability across the Sahel (see Figure 1). While some research finds “limited support for viewing climate change as an important influence on armed conflict,” our field work and research into the LCB illustrates how weather is impacting it specifically regarding new dynamics of violence.
Topic:
Civil War, Climate Change, Conflict, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

27. Militant Islamist Group Activity in the Sahel Rises

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Expansion of violent events linked to an array of militant Islamist groups in the Sahel highlights the growing scope of security challenges facing this region.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Militant Islam, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, West Africa, East Africa, and Sahel

28. Europe and the Sahel-Maghreb Crisis

Author:
Rasmus Alenius Boserup and Luis Martinez
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In this new DIIS report senior researcher at DIIS, Rasmus Alenius Boserup and Research Director at Sciences Po, Luis Martinez, analyse how European policy-makers have recently come to perceive the Sahel as a threat to Europe’s own security and stability. Marking the end of the Sahel-Maghreb Research Platform – a research project funded by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and hosted by DIIS in collaboration with Voluntas Advisory – the report draws on input and analysis provided by an international team of experts and scholars associated to the project. Focusing on the most significant recent developments with trans-national jihadism and cross-border migration, the report argues that, although European powers spearheaded by France have succeeded in reducing a number of the most immediate threats to the survival of states and societies in some of the most vulnerable parts of the Sahel, the international community has failed to generate the conditions that would foster long-term peace and development. Hence, the report suggests that the European powers should look for ways to inject life into the strategic objective of bringing the North African powers into play when attempting to solve the crisis in the Sahel.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Migration, Terrorism, Power Politics, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:
France, Libya, Denmark, Mali, and Sahel

29. Caught in the middle: A human rights and peace-building approach to migration governance in the Sahel

Author:
Fransje Molenaar, Jérôme Tubiana, and Clotilde Warin
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In recent years, the Sahel region has attracted the attention of European policy makers aiming to prevent Europe-bound irregular migrants from reaching the Libyan coastline. Policies implemented under this approach propose to address the root causes of irregular migration from non-EU countries, such as through support for socio-economic development of countries of origin, the dismantling of smuggling and trafficking networks, and the definition of actions for the better application of return policies. Does this approach to mixed migration governance take sufficient stock of the larger development and stability contexts within which irregular migration and human smuggling takes place? Does migration governance suffciently address the human rights consequences and destabilising effects that migratory movements and the policies that address them may have? And how could human rights and peace-building principles – that is, processes and measures that contribute to a society’s capacity to address conflict in a constructive manner – be incorporated to achieve more holistic and conflict-sensitive migration governance? In their report authors Fransje Molenaar, Jérôme Tubiana and Clotilde Warin address these issues and find that the implementation of migration policies in the Sahel has contributed to an increase in human rights abuses and risks for migrants and refugees, as well as rises in human trafficking and forced labour. They argue that national and sub-national institutions and capacities be supported to take the lead in comprehensive and sustainable migration management and migrant protection presenting the following recommendations: Contribute to the development of (sub)national migrant protection frameworks and structures; Ensure that migration governance benefits local communities and addresses the (perceived) negative effects of migration on host communities; Strengthen community security and ensure that securitised migration policies do not harm local communities. In their conclusion, the authors also offer concrete pointers to implement these recommendations.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, Governance, Trafficking, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Libya, and Sahel

30. October 2018 Issue

Author:
Hassan Hassan, Paul Cruickshank, Cole Bunzel, and Jami Forbes
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
With the collapse of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate, the global jihadi movement is in a state of flux. But rather than being about to enter a period of mergers or takeovers, the global jihadi movement for the foreseeable future is likely to be led by two distinct and rival groups. While the relative fortunes of the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida have oscillated in recent years, developments in the jihadi environment in Syria have hardened longstanding differences between them in doctrine and approach. Neither group is on the brink of fracturing nor likely to accept the legitimacy of the other in the coming years. And this will sustain the divide.
Topic:
Terrorism, United Nations, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Sahel