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122. Navigating New Waters: Russian Military Aggression on Ukraine and Effects on the Visegrad Group
- Author:
- Jaroslav Ušiak
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- In this article, the author examines the dynamic evolution of the Visegrad Group (V4) countries in response to Russia's war on Ukraine. Although V4 cooperation is deeply rooted in shared historical experiences, recent geopolitical challenges have revealed significant differences among member countries. Poland and the Czech Republic are strongly supportive of Ukraine and oriented towards NATO, while Hungary and Slovakia are more ambivalent, creating internal tensions. The author examines the factors that shape national identities and their influence on these divergent responses, highlighting that these factors have implications for the future of the V4 countries. The researcher used mixed methods to analyse official documents, political speeches and opinion poll data from the V4 countries, to examine the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on V4 unity and solidarity, and to consider the implications for the future of the V4 countries. The findings point to a fragile unity and growing concerns about the V4's ability to respond coherently to external threats.
- Topic:
- Solidarity, Identity, Visegrad Group, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
123. State of Democracy in Central Europe after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Lucia Husenicova
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- The central question of this article is why Russian military aggression in Ukraine has failed to strengthen support for democracy and cooperation with partners in some Central European countries. In addition, the article examines the link between military conflict in the immediate neighbourhood and the crisis of democracy. Based on a review of the extensive literature on the crisis of democracy, the article integrates findings from several opinion polls conducted in Central European countries. Looking primarily at the Visegrad countries, clear patterns emerge in responses and attitudes towards Russia. We can see the influence of the political discourse in these countries, the narratives used by political elites and, more recently, war fatigue and economic consequences. The article argues that a military conflict in the vicinity of democratic countries exacerbates the crisis of democracy. The information warfare that is part of this conflict and the susceptibility of the political elite to the dissemination of enemy propaganda undermines trust in democratic institutions and democracy.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Central Europe
124. Socio-economic consequences for Central Europe related to the mass migration of Ukrainian citizens after Russia’s full-scale invasion
- Author:
- Łukasz Jureńczyk and Svitlana Soroka
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused displacement on a scale not seen since the Second World War. More than 6.5 million refugees from Ukraine have been registered worldwide (as of 16 May 2024), and more than 4.2 million Ukrainians have received temporary protection in the EU. Most of them found shelter in Poland and Germany. These countries have received an influx of migrants that corresponds to the logic of their demographic development. Ukrainians are almost an ideal demographic resource for Central Europe. In August 2023, only one person in three wanted to return to Ukraine. If the Ukrainian refugees are properly adapted, they will provide additional development impulses to the countries where they reside.
- Topic:
- Migration, Refugees, Labor Market, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Central Europe
125. Securitization of Cooperation: The Three Seas Initiative in the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian war
- Author:
- Łukasz Lewkowicz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) is a relatively new format of regional cooperation in Central Europe. The main objective of 3SI activities is the development of energy, transport and digital infrastructure in the region. Following the outbreak of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2014, the security dimension of 3SI activities has become more important. The last 3SI Summit was held in Vilnius in April 2024. The aim of this article is primarily to analyse the military dimension of the Three Seas Initiative's activities after the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022. The text presents the military potential of the 3SI countries and the diversified approach of the member states to the Russian-Ukrainian war. It also analyses the Lithuanian 3SI perspective, the decisions of the Vilnius Summit and the prospects for 3SI military cooperation. Due to the relatively new nature of the research topic, the analysis focuses primarily on recently published specialist texts.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Securitization, Russia-Ukraine War, and Three Seas Initiative (3SI)
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Central Europe
126. Russia’s war against Ukraine: Lessons on infrastructure security and new technologies
- Author:
- Auriane Técourt and Maria Martisiute
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- In 2022, Russia hit Ukraine with a major cyberattack and unleashed a full-scale war of aggression. This includes new technologies and AI-enabled capabilities such as the Bylina electronic warfare command-and-control system. Nord Stream and the Balticconnector also fell victim to sabotage attacks by hostile actors. In this Policy Brief, it is highlighted that the EU has stepped up its resilience and cybersecurity of critical infrastructure. However, the capacity to leverage innovative technologies and defensive AI remains underdeveloped. Furthermore, the protection of industrial control systems (ICS) remains unaddressed. As Russia upgrades its 2030 National AI Development Strategy, there is an urgency to integrate the security of industrial controls into the EU’s approach to the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure before Moscow strikes with deadlier offensives. It is also time to start building a measured, albeit scalable, deployment plan for new technologies that may be AI-enabled for European critical infrastructure in connectivity with Ukraine and Moldova. The Paper explains that the EU has strengthened cybersecurity and resilience of critical infrastructure, but there is still room for improvement. Considering the pace at which new technologies and AI-enabled technologies are developing, the following steps would enhance the security of European infrastructure: Possible attack scenarios. Mandatory SOCs and cyber hubs. Industrial control systems (ICS). Synergies between the EU and NATO. A deployment plan for new technologies that may include AI.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, European Union, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
127. Russia and China in Central Asia: Cooperate, Compete, or De-conflict?
- Author:
- Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Lisa Curtis, Kate Johnston, and Nathaniel Schochet
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- Despite the many proclamations that Russian and Chinese interests would collide in Central Asia, Moscow and Beijing continue to work together in service of their shared objectives. These include, most importantly, keeping the United States and the West—and democracy—out of the region, maintaining stability, and pursuing economic benefits. Fissures between Moscow and Beijing exist, especially in the economic sphere, where China has become the more dominant power, and over the potential development of the Middle Corridor trade route, which could significantly disadvantage Russia. However, Russia and China are managing these divergences, and the overarching imperative to weaken the United States provides a powerful motive for reducing or preventing any friction from derailing their broader partnership. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the Central Asian states’ apprehensions about Russia, including about its capacity to uphold its security role in the region. However, the Kremlin remains committed to maintaining its influence in the region, and the war in Ukraine is restructuring economic dynamics in ways that will enable the Kremlin to limit the extent of its declining economic influence. Looking forward, the most significant change in Russia-China relations in Central Asia is likely to occur in the security sphere, where China is likely to take on a greater role, especially as Russia’s military and security services are preoccupied in Ukraine and with the domestic challenges the war creates. Any rise in instability in the region—which could result from an uptick in terrorist threats in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, or from the region’s brittle autocracies—could propel China to step into a sphere where Russia has historically played the primary role but that the Kremlin will struggle to fulfill while the war in Ukraine continues. For Russia and China, Central Asia is also likely to be an important building block in their larger counterorder-building effort. The two countries are likely to sustain—and step up—their efforts to build an alternative order in Central Asia, including by deepening cooperation and broadening the number of countries participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to legitimize and demonstrate the benefits of their collective global leadership. This effort will face resistance from the Central Asian states that object to the concept of a Russia-China condominium of power in their region and have shown an ability to come together to resist attempts to turn the SCO into a forum that would strengthen a collective Russia-China security role in the region. The United States has an opportunity to redouble its engagement in Central Asia. The Central Asian states highly value U.S. political support for their independence and sovereignty, especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Washington can encourage greater connectivity and cohesion among the countries, demonstrating its support for their increasing cooperation with one another in ways that could strengthen the region’s economic attractiveness and political agency. This contrasts with the way in which Russia has traditionally dealt with the region, which is to try to capitalize on divisions and disputes among the countries. While it cannot match China dollar for dollar or supplant Russia’s cultural and political influence in the region, the United States can enhance its trade, investment, energy, counterterrorism, and diplomatic ties to these countries. Enhancing U.S. and European investment in Central Asia, especially for development of the Middle Corridor, could help prevent Russia and China from further deepening their grip on the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, Cooperation, Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Central Asia, and Asia
128. Potential Russian Uses of Paramilitaries in Eurasia
- Author:
- Kimberly Marten, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Carisa Nietsche, Nicholas Lokker, and Kristen Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- While much remains uncertain following the June 2023 mutiny of Russia’s Wagner Group and the August death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia will likely continue to work with semi-state armed formations. Russia’s degraded military capacity and constrained economic resources, especially as sanctions persist, will increase the attractiveness of these organizations as low-cost tools for advancing Russian objectives and competing against the West, including to a greater extent in Eurasia where Russia likely perceives the competition as most intense. Prigozhin and his Wagner Group created a model that other opportunistic Russian actors will likely seek to replicate. Fewer financial resources available to Russia’s military and elite could increase the incentive to establish such groups, especially if these organizations can increase opportunities to improve Russia’s reputation as a reliable security provider or access new sources of wealth for the regime. Newly created organizations would likely face high barriers to entry in areas where Wagner already operates, including Africa. Therefore, if such semi-state paramilitary organizations proliferate—a prospect that has grown more likely after Prigozhin’s death—they could focus on new regions such as Eurasia. Given Russia’s declining influence in Eurasia, a region of long-standing historical importance to Russia, such groups could undertake new actions there to curry favor with Putin and the Kremlin. There are several ways the Kremlin could use semi-state security formations to advance its interests in Eurasia, including by waging political influence and disinformation campaigns, physically protecting friendly governments, sustaining Russia’s influence as a key security provider, destabilizing unfriendly governments, and limiting any threats that Russia’s diaspora population might pose to the stability of the Putin regime from abroad. Although Russian paramilitary and semi-state organizations are in many ways an extension of the malign activities carried out by the Russian state, the proliferation and increased activity of these groups would make it more difficult for the United States and its allies to attribute such actions to the Kremlin, complicating Western response options. These groups and the opportunistic individuals who lead them could, for example, stake out positions independent of the Kremlin or even at odds with it, especially in the case of extreme ethnic nationalists who have criticized Putin for not going far enough in his actions. The proliferation of these groups would also make it difficult to discern when and under what circumstances the Kremlin might be willing to escalate on these groups’ behalf.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Wagner Group, Paramilitary, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
129. The Impact of the Ukraine War on Antarctic Geopolitics Through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
- Author:
- Luiz Octavio Gaviao and Michael Bilac Barbosa de Oliveira
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impact of the Ukrainian War on the geopolitics of Antarctica. Beyond the borders of the countries involved, the most immediate and noticeable impact of a conflict of this nature is evident in the economic environment. However, international relations are tested or shaken, exerting pressure on treaties and cooperation agreements between countries, through the reappearance of past political issues. In 1959, the Antarctic Treaty sought to protect the continent from territorial pressures capable of affecting its natural balance, but this type of conflict compromises international cooperation and brings to light old interests in resource exploration in that region. This complex system, composed of cause and effect forces that involve the interests of the different countries involved in Antarctic geopolitics, was quantitatively modeled by cognitive maps, which explore artificial intelligence concepts to evaluate the behavior of these forces. The results indicated trends in relation to 12 driving forces selected from the literature and evaluated by experts from the Brazilian Antarctic Program, allowing the evaluation of the dynamics of the system over time.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Antarctica
130. Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: With Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov
- Author:
- Oleksii Reznikov, Mariana Budjeryn, Carol Saivetz, and Elizabeth Wood
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: A conversation with Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov: Thursday, October 17th, 2024. Speaker: Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s former defense minister, led Ukraine’s defense establishment in the lead up to Russia’s full-scale invasion and during the first year and a half of the war. Mr. Reznikov will discuss the successes and challenges of Ukraine’s defense effort, the role of technology and uncrewed systems, and the evolution of the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Discussant: Mariana Budjeryn, PhD, is a senior research associate with the Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She is the author of "Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine." Co-Chairs: Carol Saivetz is a senior advisor in the MIT Security Studies Program. She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is the Ford International Professor of History at MIT. She is the author most recently of "Roots of Russia's War in Ukraine," as well as articles on Vladimir Putin, right-wing populism in Russia and Turkey, and more.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine