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151. Russia's Presidential Transition: Implications for Turkey and the Black Sea Region

Author:
Alexandros Petersen
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Russia's new president, Dmitry Medvedev, should be expected to broadly continue his predecessor Vladimir Putin's foreign policy toward Turkey and the broader Black Sea region. Analysts who cast Medvedev as a mere Putin puppet, or those who anticipate a gradual increase in power for the new man in the Kremlin miss the crucial question about decision-making in Russia: how much influence will the siloviki – current and former security service officers – wield to implement policies based largely on mistrust and calculation? Russia's policies in the Black Sea region are unlikely to change much in substance, although Medvedev may adopt a more subtle, effective style in seeing them through. Their exclusionary nature - a product of the silovik worldview - should be expected to continue. Therefore, despite recent significant improvements in Turkey's relations with Russia, over time Turkey may find itself in an uncomfortable middle ground between its Western allies and its new-found friends in Moscow.
Topic:
International Relations and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia and Turkey

152. Russian–American Security Relations After Georgia

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Washington and Moscow's failure to develop a working relationship could lead to a dangerous crisis—perhaps even a nuclear one. There is an immediate need to grab onto the superstructure of the relationship through the STA RT and CFE treaties, both of which require urgent action. A new architecture should follow that to broaden the relationship, including the creation of a new future for security in Europe. Both capitals need to devise a strategy as well as a mechanism to manage the relationship and prevent future crises. A commission of past presidents—U.S. and Russian—would have the authority to confront these monumental tasks.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Washington, Eastern Europe, Moscow, and Georgia

153. Russia and Azerbaijan: Relations after 1989

Author:
Murat Gül
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
The sudden collapse of the Soviet Union has, on several levels, brought about many novel complexities to world politics. On the global level, the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the bi-polar world politics in the dangerous confrontations between Soviet ideology and power and that of the United States. The impact of the disintegration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) has been seen at the regional level as well. In particular, Central Asia and Caucasus, Eastern and Central Europe, and Baltic countries have escaped from direct Soviet domination, and so new competitions for domination have arisen. However, the most important and challenging changes have been witnessed at the individual level, insofar as fifteen new independent states have emerged post-collapse. After escaping from the domination of the USSR, these emerging states have been perplexed by the challenges of nationhood, identity politics, and state-building, re-reformulating their economic system, and entering into a global situation as independent but weak states. Thus, the collapse of Pax Sovieticus has raised a series of new foreign and security challenges, posing various obstacles and dilemmas for them.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Central Asia, Asia, Soviet Union, and Azerbaijan

154. CURRENT RUSSIA – NORTH KOREA RELATIONS: CHALLENGES AND ACHIEVEMENTS

Author:
Alexander Vorontsov
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Policy toward North Korea is an important component of Russia's general strategy toward the Asia-Pacific region, which is now regarded by Moscow as a crucially import ant area. This growing emphasis on Asia is evidenced by President Vladimir Putin's increased participation in APEC summits including the November 2005 meeting in Pusan, South Korea, and Russia's development of a dialogue partnership with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). During the first Russia-ASEAN summit, held in Malaysia just before the East Asian Summit in December 2005, President Putin gave a speech to the participants of the nascent East Asian Community (EAC), a new multidimensional integration association in the region.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Malaysia, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Asia-Pacific

155. Russia's Strategic Choices

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia's recent foreign policy has taken on a combative tone and adopted a revisionist content. Moscow today speaks its mind publicly and freely, and makes clear it no longer wants to be bound by accords concluded when Russia was weak. However, while the Kremlin is clear about what it does not like or want, it has yet to articulate a positive international agenda. In fact, Russia faces a number of fundamental foreign policy choices that cannot be explained by a reference to sheer pragmatism or the show of newly regained power. In dealing with Russia at this stage, the West needs to reach beyond the binary formula of integration or isolation and focus instead on the national interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

156. A Collapsing Façade – The Russian Duma Election in perspective

Author:
Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Duma election and its results reinforce the prevailing undemocratic trends in Russia. The changes in electoral laws, the election campaign and its biased coverage in the Russian media, the Russian authorities' hostile attitude towards international election observation and the so-called Putin's Plan leave very little hope of democratic pluralism developing in Russia anytime soon. Russia's political system has been built gradually over the years. The system aims at controlling the competition for power and securing the political elite's interests. The system is characterised by non-transparent and manipulated political processes, misleading doublespeak on democratic norms, and the misuse of soft and hard administrative resources. Putin's overwhelming popularity does not compensate for the lack of democratic accountability. Likewise, his possible premiership would not strengthen parliamentarism in Russia because the decision is driven by instrumentalism towards political institutions. Instead, it would create a dangerous precedent for an ad hoc separation of power. Western actors should be more aware that the stability that Putin is often praised for bringing about is not build on solid ground, and they should change their policies accordingly. Promoting democracy – and thus longterm stability – in Russia is in western actors' interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

157. A Match made in Heaven? Strategic Convergence between China and Russia

Author:
Indra Øverland and Kyrre Braekhus
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper examines the strategic convergence between Russia and China. Strategic convergence is understood as the overlap of key objectives and interests with regard to long-term developments in world politics, which provides the basis for extensive tactical co-operation between two or more states. The paper focuses on the compatibility of Russia and China in terms of complementary economies, location and political outlook. The match between Russian natural resources and Chinese markets is examined in particular. The paper concludes that a closer relationship between the two countries in many ways would be of mutual advantage, but that it is far from certain that an alliance will develop.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Russia and China

158. Engaging India: Ambassador Ortwin Hennig's visit to Delhi and Mumbai

Author:
Sahiba Trivedi
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Ambassador Ortwin Hennig is the Vice President and the Head of Conflict Prevention Program of the East West Institute at Brussels. His previous assignments include the Commissioner for Civilian Crisis Prevention, Conflict Resolution and Post-Conflict Peace Building in the German Government; diplomatic postings in Afghanistan, Russia, German Representation at the European Commission and the OSCE in Vienna. He has also served the Office of the German Federal President as a Foreign Policy Advisor. Ambassador Hennig is an alumnus of the NATO Defense College in Rome having specialized in arms control and security policy matters.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, India, Asia, Germany, and Vienna

159. Advancing a Constructive Agenda for US-Russia Relations: Insights and Recommendations from Leading Experts

Author:
Jeff Procak
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
On April 25, 2007, the EastWest Institute, together with the Kennan Institute, organized in Washington DC a two-hour roundtable discussion on the current state and outlook for US-Russia relations. The roundtable used President Putin's speech presented to the 43rd Conference on Security Policy in Munich on February 10, 2007 as a point of reference. The purpose of this gathering was to examine strategies and approaches to reverse the significant decline in Russian-American relations over the last several years. The seminar was attended by 20 prominent experts from the US and Russia, including foreign policy advisors, representatives of the academic, business, and NGO communities, and mass media. Topics discussed included the most important issues on the US-Russia geostrategic agenda: arms control and nuclear non- proliferation, international energy, Russia's WTO accession, trade and economic cooperation, mutual perceptions and role of the media.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, and Asia

160. North Korea-Russian Relations: A Strained Friendship

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
North Korea's relations with Russia have been marked by unrealistic expectations and frequent disappointments but common interests have prevented a rupture. The neighbours' history as dissatisfied allies goes back to the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) with Soviet support and the Red Army's installation of Kim Il-sung as leader. However, the Soviets were soon written out of the North's official ideology. The Sino-Soviet split established a pattern of Kim playing Russian and Chinese leaders off against each other to extract concessions, including the nuclear equipment and technology at the heart of the current crisis. Since Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang in 2000, diplomatic initiatives have come undone and grandiose economic projects have faltered. Russia is arguably the least effective participant in the six-party nuclear talks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, North Korea, and Pyongyang