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121. The Russian Economic Crisis

Author:
Jeffrey Mankoff
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Like much of the world, Russia has been in the midst of a serious economic crisis since the late summer of 2008. Although the worst appears to be over, Russia will continue to feel its effects longer than many other industrialized countries, largely because of a rigid economy burdened with an overweening state role. The recognition that Russia faces serious long-term challenges has emboldened President Dmitry Medvedev and others to call for far-reaching economic restructuring. If successful, their economic policies could undermine the semi-authoritarian, state-capitalist model developed under Prime Minister and former president Vladimir Putin. Although concrete reforms have so far been limited, Medvedev's demands for change (seconded in some cases by Putin) have acquired increasing momentum in recent months. The speed of Russia's recovery and obstacles along the way will play a major role in determining both the success of Medvedev's call for modernization and the course of Russia's foreign policy since a quicker recovery would diminish the pressure for fundamental reform and lessen the need for caution internationally.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Affairs, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia

122. The Obama Administration and Latin America: Towards a New Partnership?

Author:
Daniel P. Erikson
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The presidency of Barack Obama ushered in a welcome honeymoon period in US-Latin American relations following eight years of the Bush administration's polarizing policies towards the region. Early optimism has been tempered by the reappearance of tensions in hemispheric relations. They include the rise of Brazil as a regional power, the role of Venezuela and the continued strain in US-Cuban relations. Regional relations are further complicated by China's growing economic presence in Latin America, increased ties with Iran and Russia, different US and Latin reactions to the June 2009 coup in Honduras, and the crisis response to the January 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Still, the US has potential to advance a strategy of substantive, issue oriented engagement designed to rekindle the early goodwill that resulted from Obama's election to the White House.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Latin America, and Haiti

123. Does Fairness Matter?

Author:
Hakan Altinay
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Worldwide, there has been a recent increase in expressions of cynicism. We are reminded that all power is hard power, and that being loved or respected is no substitute for being feared. The great power game of nations always continues, we are forewarned, even when a higher goal or rhetoric is evoked. Superpowers are selfish, arbitrary, and dangerous nations, and they should not be embarrassed to be so and not feel constrained by international legitimacy and laws. We are cautioned against assuming that the rise of the world's emerging powers is doing anything to the status of United States as the sole superpower. Naturally, it would be a folly to think that global public opinion is in effect a “second superpower,” or even a crucial factor. Such concerns are the Lilliputians binding an unsuspecting Gulliver. Anyone harboring naïve views needs to be told that good intentions are at best a distraction and a nuisance, and at worst a recipe for disaster, given their imprudence. Cynics prefer to be unconcerned about the achievements of transnational normative action, such as abolishing the slave trade or establishing the International Criminal Court.
Topic:
International Relations, Emerging Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Brazil

124. Russia's Policy in the Middle East: Prospects for Consensus and Conflict with the United States

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This report is one in a series commissioned by The Century Foundation to explore issues of interest to American policymakers regarding Russia, aimed at identifying a framework for U.S.-Russian relations and policy options for a new administration and Congress that could help right the two countries' troubled relationship at a crucial juncture. The papers in the series explore significant aspects of U.S.-Russian relations, outlining a broad range of reasons why Russia matters for American foreign policy and framing bilateral and multilateral approaches to Russia for U.S. consideration. A high-level working group, co-chaired by Gary Hart, former U.S. senator from Colorado, and Jack F. Matlock, Jr., former U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union, has provided direction to the project and offered recommendations for action that the United States might take.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Middle East, and Asia

125. South Korea-North Korea Relations

Author:
Aidan Foster-Carter
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The past quarter in inter-Korean relations might be called the morning after the night before. Tensions over the sunken ROK corvette Cheonan by no means disappeared; the less so since North Korea still denied responsibility, while the South smarted at its failure to convince key powers – China and Russia above all – of Pyongyang‟s culpability. The Cheonan incident remains a crime and an obstacle. Yet hopeful signs are emerging that both sides realize they will have to get past this eventually and that they might as well start now. Among various small initiatives, including flood aid, the quarter ended on a hopeful note with an agreement to hold a fresh round of reunions of separated families in late October.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Korea, and North Korea

126. Transit Troubles: Pipelines as a Source of Conflict

Author:
Paul Stevens
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Recent events between Russia and Ukraine at the start of 2009 and Russia and Georgia in 2008 have brought transit pipelines back into the media spotlight. Any reading of the history of transit oil and gas pipelines suggests a tendency to produce conflict and disagreement, often resulting in the cessation of throughput, sometimes for a short period and sometimes for longer. It is tempting to attribute this to bad political relations between neighbours. This is certainly part of the story, but also important is the nature of the 'transit terms' – tariffs and offtake terms – whereby transit countries are rewarded for allowing transit. Put simply, the trouble with transit pipelines has a significant economic basis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Economics, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia

127. Georgia Russia: The "Unknown" Prelude to the "Five Day War"

Author:
Martin Malek
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Russian Armed Forces not only expelled invading Georgian troops from the separatist region South Ossetia, but they also entered Abkhazia and marched deep into Georgia proper over the course of the "five day war" in August 2008. The following report analyses Russia\'s military preparations since spring 2008, an aspect hitherto almost unknown among politicians, the media and the public in Western Europe and North America. They included the shooting down of a Georgian drone by Russian fighter jets over Abkhazia, a massive increase of Russian "peacekeeping troops" along the Georgian-Abkhaz armistice line, the deployment of Russian railway troops to Abkhazia and the "Kavkaz 2008" military exercises. These developments occurred against the backdrop of political events, such as demands made by the Russian State Duma to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, Russia\'s decision to withdraw from the CIS economic embargo against Abkhazia and NATO\'s refusal to offer membership to Georgia.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

128. Pressing the "Reset Button" on US-Russia Relations

Author:
Anders Åslund and Andrew Kuchins
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Whither Russia? Russia's economic circumstances as well as its articulated goals hold the answer to this eternal question. Drawing on our analysis in the forthcoming book The Russia Balance Sheet, we outline here a policy approach for the Barack Obama administration. We believe our views reflect to some degree an emerging consensus for the new administration's Russia policy. Russia is important for US foreign policy in many ways. The United States needs a more constructive relationship with Russia to address many core global security issues including nuclear security and nonproliferation, terrorism, energy, and climate change.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

129. La misión rusa Arktika 2007 y sus implicaciones para el balance mundial de poder en el siglo XXI

Author:
José Miguel Alonso Trabanco
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
Hasta hace pocas décadas, el Círculo Polar Ártico era considerado como una zona planetaria condenada a ser inhóspita e inaccesible a causa de su lejanía y sus glaciales temperaturas. Tal región ha despertado fascinación en los exploradores, como es el caso de Ivan Papanin, quien, en 1937, emplazó la bandera de la Unión Soviética en el Polo Norte (“Europe: Ships, subs and missiles; Russia's new assertiveness” 2007), lo que atestigua que la presencia rusa en la zona no es del todo reciente, aunque, más de 70 años después, el interés nacional ruso se extiende más allá de la esfera científica y sus implicaciones son más complejas.
Topic:
International Relations, Energy Policy, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

130. China's $1.7 Trillion Bet: China's External Portfolio and Dollar Reserves

Author:
Brad W. Setser and Arpana Pandey
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
China reported $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2008. This is by far the largest stockpile of foreign exchange in the world: China holds roughly two times more reserves than Japan, and four times more than either Russia or Saudi Arabia. Moreover, China's true foreign port- folio exceeds its disclosed foreign exchange reserves. At the end of December, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)—part of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) managed close to $2.1 trillion: $1.95 trillion in formal reserves and between $108 and $158 billion in “other foreign assets.” China's state banks and the China Investment Corporation (CIC), China's sovereign wealth fund, together manage another $250 billion or so. This puts China's total holdings of foreign assets at over $2.3 trillion. That is over 50 percent of China's gross domestic product (GDP), or roughly $2,000 per Chinese inhabitant.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Israel, Asia, and Saudi Arabia