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31. Lithuania’s Energy Policy

Author:
Kinga Raś
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Lithuania wants to become independent from Russia and increase the self-sufficiency and the competitiveness of its energy sector. The basis for its transformation and modernisation will be, inter alia, renewable energy sources, of which the role in the energy balance is increasing in line with EU requirements. At the same time, Lithuania intends to introduce innovations that will increase energy efficiency. These activities may stimulate stronger cooperation with Poland, which Lithuania perceives as one of its most important partners.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Science and Technology, European Union, Trade, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Russia, Poland, and Lithuania

32. Possible Impacts: Implications of Building A Unified European Army on Regional Security

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
French President Emmanuel Macron’s call to create a unified European army, independent of NATO, to defend the European continent in the face of major powers such as Russia, China and even the US, has sparked a political firestorm. The most notable of these reactions came from US President Donald Trump, who tweeted rejecting the proposal and criticizing the French President, heightening tensions between the two sides. At the official level, the US State Department commented on the idea of the European Union forming an independent army of member states, stating that the US opposes any actions that could contribute to weakening NATO. “That’s been a sustained entity that the United States government and many others supported for many years, and so we would not want the weakening of NATO”, US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said on November 14, 2018.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Armed Forces, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, France, and United States of America

33. Economic Sanction Games among the US, the EU and Russia: Payoffs and Potential Effects

Author:
Dong Yan and Li Chunding
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Economic sanction of the US and EU on Russia because of Ukraine crisis in 2014 lasts for a long time and is still a hot policy topic. This paper uses a 16-country or region numerical general equilibrium model with trade cost and exogenous trade imbalance to explore this three-country economic sanction game payoffs, and simulate the effects of sanctions on individual countries. Our analysis find that all sanction involved countries will be hurt, but comparatively Russia will be hurt more, and the US and EU will be hurt less. Sanction measures of EU have larger impacts to Russia than the US measures, and meanwhile Russian counter-sanction measures will generate larger impacts on the EU than on the US. From the economic perspective, the optimal choice for US and EU is to give up sanction measures to Russia, and retaliation is Russia’s optimal choice when faced with sanction measures. Countries out of the sanction game will gain because of trade diversion effects.
Topic:
Economics, Sanctions, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

34. Energy as a tool of foreign policy of authoritarian states, in particular Russia

Author:
Rem Korteweg
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This study is originally published by the Directorate General for External Policies of the Union of the Policy Department for External Relations of the European Parliament and was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET committee). Russia and other energy-rich authoritarian states use their energy exports for economic gains but also as a tool of foreign policy leverage. This study by Rem Korteweg looks at the ways and methods these states have used to exert political pressure through their energy supplies, and what it means for the European Union. Most energy-rich authoritarian states use their energy wealth to ensure regime survival. But, more than others, Russia uses its energy wealth as well to protect and promote its interests in its ‘near abroad’ and to make its geopolitical influence felt further afield, including in Europe. It uses gas supplies to punish and to reward, affecting both transit states and end-consumers. This publication explores how supply disruptions, price discounts or hikes, and alternative transit routes such as Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream, are used by Russia to further its foreign policy ambitions, feeding suspicions about its geopolitical motives. The lack of transparency about Russia’s energy policy decisions contributes to this. In response, the EU is building an Energy Union based around the Third Energy Package, a more integrated European market and diversified supplies. By investing in new supplies, such as LNG, and completing a liberalised energy market, the EU will be better able to withstand such energy coercion and develop a more effective EU foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Authoritarianism, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

35. Rising Tensions Between Policy Brief the West and Russia: What Role For Arms Control?

Author:
Peter van Ham
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Today, political relations between the West and Russia have entered a new mini-Ice Age, existing arms control arrangements are either dysfunctional or simply not used, and both sides are improving their military readiness. The obvious question that needs to be raised is whether, and if so how, these escalating tensions can be contained, or even reduced? This Policy Brief offers insight into the most pressing concerns, focusing on areas and issues where matters could escalate fastest. It asks what role can still be foreseen for arms control and concludes with a call for transatlantic unity and a stronger role for NATO to counter Russia’s military and geopolitical gambit. It suggests that the classic two-pronged “Harmel approach” (based on deterrence and détente) should be restored. This includes a mix of US-Russian high summitry and the revitalisation of the NATO-Russia Council as part of a broad and far-reaching (military) risk reduction process.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

36. Energy Security from a European Union scope: the role of Russia / Seguridad energética en clave de la Unión Europea: el papel de Rusia

Author:
Nuria G. Rabanal
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The aim of this work is to show the energy situation of the European Union (EU) across the analysis of its energy policy focusing in energy security. The facts show the important role of Russia as energy player and its influence in the design of energy strategy of the EU. As a reply of the strong dependency of Russian imports, European institutions have developed a strategy structured in two dimensions; internal and external one with the aim to guarantee the international cooperation with third countries, the increasing of internal energy market integration, the promotion of energy save, and the search of effective alternatives to conventional sources. The EU Strategy has designed a joint of measures that includes the increasing in the efficient use of conventional sources combined with higher levels in energy Investment, Innovation and technological Development (I+D+I), and the promotion of renewables. This is the way to change the classical energy model to a new one more compatible with the environment and a sustainable economic growth but also that implies a significant reduction of energy dependence.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

37. The European Dimension of Nuclear Deterrence: French and British policies and future scenarios

Author:
Bruno Tertrais
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
While the idea of a “European nuclear deterrent” has a long history, it has recently made a comeback in the light of Russian aggression on the continent, growing tensions in the transatlantic relationship since the election of Donald Trump, as well as the British decision to leave the European Union. Voices are being heard in Germany in particular, arguing for stronger European nuclear autonomy. This paper analyses how the French and British deterrents could play a broader and stronger role in ensuring the security of the continent. Discarding the idea of a single “European deterrent”, it suggests possible credible pathways to enhance European nuclear cooperation based on French and possibly British forces, preferably outside the EU context. Furthermore, it suggests that future US decisions and policies towards Europe will be a critical factor in defining the range of realistic scenarios and outcomes.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, European Union, Deterrence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France, and North America

38. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Superpowers

Author:
Ed Erickson, Christian H. Heller, T. J. Linzy, Mallory Needleman, Michael Auten, Anthony N. Celso, Keith D. Dickson, Jamie Shea, Ivan Falasca, Steven A. Yeadon, Joshua Tallis, and Ian Klaus
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
There are a variety of reasons to study geopolitical rivalries, and analysts, officers, and politicians are rediscovering such reasons amid the tensions of the last several years. The best reason to study geopolitical rivalries is the simplest: our need to better understand how power works globally. Power not only recurs in human and state affairs but it is also at their very core. Today’s new lexicon—superpower, hyperpower, and great power—is only another reminder of the reality of the various ways that power manifests itself. Power protects and preserves, but a polity without it may be lost within mere decades. Keith D. Dickson’s article in this issue of MCU Journal, “The Challenge of the Sole Superpower in the Postmodern World Order,” illuminates how fuzzy some readers may be in their understanding of this problem; his article on postmodernism calls us to the labor of understanding and reasoning through the hard realities. Ed Erickson’s survey of modern power is replete with cases in which a grand state simply fell, as from a pedestal in a crash upon a stone floor. Modern Japan, always richly talented, rose suddenly as a world actor in the late nineteenth century, but the Japanese Empire fell much more quickly in the mid-twentieth century. A state’s power—or lack thereof—is an unforgiving reality. This issue of MCU Journal, with its focus on rivalries and competition between states, is refreshingly broad in its selection of factors—from competing for or generating power. Dr. Erickson recalls that Alfred Thayer Mahan settled on six conditions for sea power, all still vital. Other authors writing for this issue emphasize, by turns, sea power (Steven Yeadon, Joshua Tallis, and Ian Klaus); cyberpower (Jamie Shea); alliances (T. J. Linzy and Ivan Falasca); information (Dickson); and proxies (Michael Auten, Anthony N. Celso, and others).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Islam, Terrorism, War, History, Power Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Seapower, Cities, Ottoman Empire, Hybrid Warfare, Cyberspace, Soviet Union, and Safavid Empire
Political Geography:
Britain, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Lithuania, Georgia, North Africa, Syria, North America, and United States of America

39. How Ukraine Views Russia and the West

Author:
Steven Pifer
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassador's Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
Following the Soviet Union’s collapse, Ukraine and Russia maintained relations that at times were testy, but their differences largely appeared manageable. That changed in 2014, when the Kremlin used military force to seize Crimea and then supported armed separatism in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. As a result, attitudes within Ukraine toward Russia have hardened to a consider­able degree, and the appeal of Western institutions such as the European Union and NATO has grown.
Topic:
NATO, Imperialism, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

40. A comparative study: Where and Why does the EU Impose Sanctions?

Author:
Christian Hörbelt
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The use of the EU instrument of political and economic sanctions has continually been rising since 1987. However, the sanctions are used differently according to geographic vicinity, political motivation, and which security objectives the EU promotes. Clara Portela explored the European sanction regime for the period 1987-2003 and showed that the EU has different political motivations and objectives for each region and that, in particular, geographic vicinity plays a significant role for the application for sanctions. This article relates to Portela´s analytic approach from 2005 and verifies her hypotheses for the period 2005-2015. In summary, the article shows that the EU still focuses on geographic vicinity and security relevance. Only the area of sanction application has changed, moving from Eastern Europe to the Middle East.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Mediterranean